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Trading the Oil Supply Shock

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Hi Trader,

Oil markets are adjusting — not because of speculation, but because supply flexibility is shrinking.

Venezuela's disruption is removing key barrels from the system at a time when spare capacity is already limited. Markets are beginning to reflect that shift through price behavior, volatility, and sector rotation.

We've put together a concise trading briefing that breaks it down:

Trading the Oil Supply Shock: Top 3 Energy Stocks Emerging From Venezuela's Disruption

In this report, you'll see:

How supply pressure is showing up before headlines catch up
Three energy stocks traders are watching closely
What signals to monitor as the setup evolves

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NVIDIA Analysts Say Buy Ahead of Q4 Earnings, With Conviction

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Key Points

NVIDIA analysts are robustly bullish ahead of the Q4 2025 earnings report.
A convergence of factors suggests this stock could rise by 100% to 200% over the next few years.
Catalysts include the Q4 release, 2026 guidance, and the GTC developer conference.

If you are wondering whether NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA) is a Buy ahead of its Q4 2025 earnings release, the odds are high that it is. Indications from analyst sentiment trends, institutional activity, valuation, and technical setups suggest this stock rally is approximately halfway over.

NVIDIA could rise from the $180 level to well over $360, and potentially as high as $520 or higher over time. The question is what could move the stock, and there are catalysts ahead. Not only are the Q4 results due in late February and likely to be strong, but the annual GTC developer conference is slated for mid-March and expected to drive stock prices industry-wide.

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NVIDIA Analysts Trends Say NVIDIA Is a Deep-Value

Growth and margin concerns aside, the analyst trends reflect a robustly bullish market posture and a deep-value opportunity for NVIDIA investors. MarketBeat’s data reveals coverage swelling on a trailing 12-month basis to 52 analysts, who rate the stock as a Buy with a 96% Buy-rating bias, and a consensus price target forecasting a 45% upside.

As strong as the 45% upside is, the trends include price target increases and above-consensus initiations that point to the high end of the range. A move to $352 offers approximately 95% upside for investors and is unlikely to be the end of this trend.

Recent updates include commentary from GF Securities and UBS. GF Securities is looking ahead to the GTC developer conference for several catalysts, including news on co-packaged optics, a rack-scale language processing solution, and other hardware updates. UBS, on the other hand, is bullish on the pre-release setup, noting favorable conditions including supply chain checks, lingering doubts despite persistently optimistic management, and tepid stock price action over the past few months.

NVIDIA Stock Price Is Wound Up, Ready to Advance in Early 2026

The technical setup is bullish. NVIDIA’s stock price has been consolidating within a range and has formed a Bullish Pennant Pattern. The Bullish Pennant Pattern is a consolidation and potential continuation signal that forms within a longer-term bull market. If confirmed, the implication is that stock prices will advance a dollar amount equal to the preceding rally at the low end of the range, and an amount equal to the percentage gains of the preceding rally at the high end. In this case, that’s a move worth approximately $90 (about 50% upside) to 100% at the high end.

The technical movement is backed up by the valuation outlook. NVIDIA commands a premium relative to its current-year earnings due to its growth outlook, but the market has yet to price in its full potential. As it stands, NVIDIA trades at under 10X its 2035 forecast, suggesting it could rise by 100% to over 200% in that time.

A 100% stock price advance would align the 2035 valuation with the broad market average relative to current year earnings. Assuming NVIDIA retains its blue-chip tech premium, the stock is more likely to trade above 30X 2035 earnings by 2035, setting up a 200% stock price advance.

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Institutions Aggressively Accumulate NVIDIA Stock in Early Q1 2026

Institutional data from MarketBeat reveals this group aggressively accumulating NVIDIA stock. The group owns about 65% of the shares, runs a balance of $3.50 per $1 sold on a trailing 12-month basis, and ramped activity to over $4.50 to $1 in early 2026. This provides a solid support base upon pullbacks, limiting the downside risk, while providing a tailwind for any rally. In this scenario, NVIDIA stock is likely to continue trading within its range until the catalyst emerges, which is only a few weeks away.

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