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This week was a reminder that a bounce is not the same thing as a trend change.
The market showed some early strength on Monday and Tuesday, but by midweek hotter inflation data and a Fed that stayed on hold shifted the tone quickly. By Friday, what looked like a possible rebound had turned into a fourth straight weekly loss for the major indexes.
Market recap
SPY closed at 648.57, down 13.72 points (-2.07%) on the week from 662.29. It traded above 670 early in the week and still rolled over hard by Friday.
QQQ closed at 582.06, down 11.66 points (-1.96%) from 593.72. Tech helped lead the early bounce, but that strength faded just as fast as it appeared.
DIA closed at 455.89, down 10.52 points (-2.26%) from 466.41. There was no real safety in the Dow either.
VIX closed at 26.76, down slightly from 27.19 last Friday, but that only tells part of the story. It dropped to 22.37 on Tuesday, then spiked as high as 29.28 on Friday. Fear never really left the tape.
What mattered this week
PPI came in hot, reinforcing the idea that inflation is still a problem.
The Fed held rates steady at 3.50%–3.75%, keeping pressure on traders hoping for faster relief.
Jobless claims fell to 205,000, showing the labor market is still firm.
Housing data was mixed, and overall the message stayed the same: macro still matters, and the market is paying attention.
Lessons learned
- A bounce is not a trend change
- Macro matters more than hope
- Cash is a position
- When VIX stays elevated, patience and position sizing matter even more
- This is still a market that punishes forced trades
What to study this weekend
Iron Condor
https://oed.dtitrader.com/strategy/iron-condor
A good strategy to review when the market keeps chopping around and punishing both sides.
Covered Call
https://oed.dtitrader.com/strategy/covered-call
Worth revisiting when upside follow-through is weak and income matters more than chasing.
Protective Put
https://oed.dtitrader.com/strategy/protective-put
A smart reminder that downside protection matters when headline risk stays elevated.
Long Call
https://oed.dtitrader.com/strategy/long-call
Important to understand so you’re ready when real momentum returns, not just a short-lived bounce.
Bottom line:
This market is still rewarding discipline, patience, and selectivity far more than aggression.
Have a great weekend,
The DTI Team
