Distracted Americans set to miss out on quadrillions

May 16, 2026 | Read online

Distracted Americans set to miss out on quadrillions

FEATURED: Coleman bought INTC and HOOD, sold WDAY and Circle. Are the deals still there?

The Scoreboard

New position — INTC: 1.6 million shares, valued at $72.3 million as of March 31
New position — HOOD: 400,000 shares, valued at $10.6 million as of March 31
Full exit — WDAY: Complete liquidation after trimming 46.8% of shares in Q2 2025 alone
Full exit — CRCL: Circle Internet Group dumped within two quarters of initial entry
Trim — MSFT: Microsoft stake reduced as part of broader software rotation
Adds — AVGO, NVDA, TSM, AMAT: Semiconductor concentration deepens across the board

Intel — Cheap Chip or Crowded Trade?

Tiger was buying INTC sometime between January and March 31 — before the Q1 earnings print that turned heads. On April 23, Intel reported Q1 2026 revenue of $13.58 billion, beating the $12.42 billion consensus by 9.4%. Non-GAAP EPS of $0.29 demolished the $0.01 estimate. Shares popped more than 20% in after-hours. Data Center and AI revenue grew 22% year-over-year to $5.1 billion. AI-driven businesses — now 60% of total revenue — grew 40% year-over-year. Non-GAAP gross margin of 41% came in roughly 650 basis points above guidance.

Here's the thing, though. Tiger's entry price looks sharp in retrospect. The stock has moved materially since March 31. At current levels, the GAAP picture is still ugly — Q1 carried a net loss of $3.73 billion, an operating loss of $3.14 billion, and free cash flow of negative $3.87 billion. Q2 guidance calls for $13.8–$14.8 billion in revenue but a step-down in non-GAAP gross margin to approximately 39%. The 18A node ramp is real. The income statement is still catching up. Coleman is betting the gap closes — but bargain hunters buying today are paying for a lot of good news that's already in the price.

Worth noting: more than 2,000 institutional investors initiated new Intel positions in Q1 2026, per a Reuters review of over 6,000 13F filings. Crowded turnarounds are still turnarounds — but the margin for error shrinks when everyone arrives at the same thesis in the same quarter.

Robinhood — Messy Quarter, Clean Fundamentals

Tiger's HOOD stake is smaller — $10.6 million — but the setup is interesting. Q1 2026 revenue of $1.07 billion missed the $1.14 billion consensus. EPS of $0.38 trailed estimates, snapping four straight quarters of beats. The headline miss was almost entirely crypto: segment revenue collapsed 47% year-over-year to $134 million as the post-election digital asset frenzy cooled fast.

Peel back the crypto noise and the underlying platform looks solid. Total net revenues grew 15% year-over-year. Funded customers expanded 6% to a record 27.4 million. Adjusted EBITDA rose 14% to $534 million. Net income grew 3% to $346 million. Transaction-based revenues grew 7% to $623 million — carried by a 320% surge in event contracts and 46% growth in equities. Trailing-twelve-month Rule of 40 score: 98%, combining 42% revenue growth with a 56% adjusted EBITDA margin. That's not a struggling fintech. That's a platform finding its stride. CFO Shiv Verma confirmed Q2 net deposits tracking approximately $5 billion in April alone despite tax season headwinds.

The Exits — What Coleman Walked Away From

What you sell tells you as much as what you buy.

Workday had been a slow bleed exit — Tiger trimmed 46.8% of shares in Q2 2025 alone before pulling the plug entirely in Q1 2026. Enterprise HR software at premium multiples is a hard argument when AI-native platforms are encroaching on every incumbent's moat. The Circle Internet Group exit is sharper — Tiger entered the stablecoin issuer in Q2 2025 and was fully out within two quarters. That kind of speed signals a thesis change, not a trim. Whether it was regulatory uncertainty, valuation, or a competitive read on the stablecoin landscape, Coleman didn't stick around to find out. The Microsoft trim fits the same pattern: rotating from established software names toward infrastructure and platform plays with cleaner AI leverage.

The Cheap Investor Scorecard

INTC — AI revenue traction: 60% of total revenue, growing 40% YoY. Watch for sustained growth in Q2 2026 report (July 23)
INTC — Gross margin recovery: Q1 non-GAAP GM of 41% was strong; Q2 guide steps down to ~39%. Direction matters more than the number
INTC — Free cash flow: Still deeply negative at -$3.87B in Q1. No FCF recovery, no durable valuation re-rate
INTC — 18A node ramp: The pivotal execution variable. Customer announcements and yield data are the tells
HOOD — Crypto dependency: One segment drove the Q1 miss. Watch crypto revenue stabilization in Q2
HOOD — Funded account growth: 27.4 million funded accounts, record high. Retention at scale is the long game
HOOD — Adjusted EBITDA margin: 56% on a trailing basis. If this holds through a down-crypto quarter, the business model is proven
HOOD — Net deposits: $5B in April alone. Organic inflows without a crypto catalyst are the durable signal

Bottom Line

If Intel executes on the 18A ramp and gross margins recover toward 45%+ by late 2026, Coleman's Q1 entry looks like the kind of early positioning that defines a fund's vintage year. If margin guidance continues to step down and foundry customers stall, the thesis gets crowded and expensive fast.

Robinhood is the quieter bet — one noisy crypto quarter masking a platform that's compounding at an elite rate. If Q2 deposits hold and crypto revenue stabilizes even modestly, the re-rate case builds itself.

Remember: this is a March 31 snapshot. Tiger may have already trimmed, added, or exited. The 13F tells you where a great fund was — not where it's going. Do your own homework, bargain hunter. The edge is in the preparation.

For informational and educational purposes only. Not investment advice. Trading involves risk, including loss of principal.

This content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Investing involves risk.

The Cheap Investor is a publication of Investing Media Solutions, LLC.

_{To view our full policies:}_Disclaimer_|_{Privacy Policy}_|_{Terms & Conditions}

Update your email preferences or unsubscribe here

203 N La Salle Suite 2100
Chicago , Illinois 60601, United States

Who Wins When SpaceX Goes Public?

Retail investors are waiting for SpaceX. Wall Street isn’t.

Because before the biggest IPO in years even files publicly, money is already flowing into the companies orbiting around it.

→ Rocket builders.
→ Satellite operators.
→ Signal intelligence firms.
→ Space infrastructure plays.

Some are doubling revenue.
Most are still building before the profits arrive.
All of them are racing to establish their niche in the space economy before SpaceX hits public markets.

The race already started.

Here’s the story ⇩

SPONSOR BREAK presented by BrownstoneResearch*

While the whole world is watching Elon, the real money is moving somewhere else

When Elon Musk ran a Twitter poll in 2021, Tesla lost $30 billion in a single day.

When he changed the Twitter logo to Dogecoin, the coin surged 30% overnight.

No one alive moves markets the way Elon does.

Larry Benedict — the trader who delivered a 279% return on cash in 2025 — says Elon's next move is his biggest yet.

And there's ONE ticker, overlooked by almost everyone, positioned to capture it.

Click here to find out what it is before the "Final Phase" begins.

The Ones Building Rockets

1\ Rocket Lab RKLB ( ▼ 5.87% )- The SpaceX doppelganger

Of all the publicly traded space companies, Rocket Lab is the one most often compared to SpaceX.

It builds rockets today with its Electron launch vehicles, while developing its larger Neutron rocket — designed to carry heavier payloads to orbit, much like SpaceX’s Falcon system.

But Rocket Lab has already evolved beyond launches.

Its space systems division — selling satellite parts, kick-stage engines, and entire satellites — now generates twice the revenue of its launch business.

→ Q1 revenue is expected to rise 54.5% to $189.4 million, while losses continue narrowing.

Growing fast.
Still not profitable.

2\ Firefly Aerospace FLY ( ▼ 4.6% ) - The moon lander

Firefly recently accomplished something most private aerospace companies never do.

It landed on the Moon.

Revenue is beating expectations and guidance is decent.

The company is now valued around $5.5 billion and sits at the center of growing investor interest around lunar infrastructure and defense-related launches.

Revenue is improving and guidance remains solid.

But profitability is nowhere close.

Firefly is still burning cash aggressively while trying to scale a business that requires enormous upfront investment.

B. Riley analyst Mike Crawford maintains a $60 price target.

The question with Firefly is not whether the technology works.
It is whether the business model catches up before the runway runs out.

SPONSOR BREAK presented by Paradigm*

Altucher: This is My Favorite FREE Starlink Pre-IPO Ticker
Legendary investor James Altucher just gave out one of his TOP stock picks for the coming Starlink IPO – 100% FREE.

Usually he holds these plays “close to the vest”…

But with Starlink going public as soon as June 9th…

NOW is the time to act.

You can watch James’ latest video for yourself, right here.

It’s a brief, 3-minute video, and reveals the name and ticker symbol for FREE.
Click here to check it out now.

The Ones Watching From Orbit 🛰️

1\ BlackSky BKSY ( ▼ 9.17% ) - The eye in the sky

BlackSky operates a constellation of AI-enhanced Earth observation satellites, on track to become the world's largest very high-resolution constellation by end of 2026.

Its satellites can image objects as small as 35 centimeters across — four to six times sharper than Planet Labs, its main competitor.

The company believes demand for real-time geospatial intelligence will surge as governments and corporations increasingly rely on satellite data.

The financial picture is less exciting.

Q1 revenue is expected to decline 8% year over year to $27.3 million, while losses widen.

Strong technology.
More difficult near-term execution.

2\ Redwire RDW ( ▲ 0.5% ) - The infrastructure supplier

Redwire makes the components that make satellites work.

→ Solar arrays.
→ Docking systems.
→ Sensors.
→ Cameras.

Think of it as a behind-the-scenes supplier for orbital infrastructure.

Last year the company made a major move by acquiring drone firm Edge Autonomy for $925 million — expanding aggressively into autonomous defense systems.

→ That acquisition is expected to drive Q1 revenue growth of nearly 70% to $104.6 million.

Profitability, however, remains a future goal.

The company is still in expansion mode.

SPONSOR BREAK presented by MarketWise*

Wall St. Insider Warns: This Could Leapfrog Elon's SpaceX IPO

Elon Musk could take SpaceX public in 2026, at an estimated $1.75 trillion valuation. The IPO would include Elon's AI model, Grok. But according to Louis Navellier, a radical new AI model will launch this year… over 1,000 times more powerful than Elon's. And the company behind it could outperform SpaceX in the process.

Click here for full details (including Louis' new pick — free).

3\ HawkEye 360 HAWK ( ▲ 0.94% ) - The listener

We covered HawkEye in depth on Wednesday — the company that uses satellites to listen to radio frequency signals from space.

It raised $416 million in its IPO last week, priced at the top of its range, and jumped 30% on day one.

The Iran war has made signals intelligence one of the most valuable commodities in defense right now, and HawkEye's government customer base is not going anywhere.

Currently trading at 26x revenue — a premium that reflects both the quality of the business and the heat of the moment.

SPONSOR BREAK presented by BanyanHill*

$44 Trillion "Super Convergence": Elon's Biggest Move EVER?
After being invited to the SpaceX launch headquarters in Cape Canaveral from one of Elon's top lobbyists… Hall of Fame Trader Jon Najarian now says EVERYONE is missing an even bigger story about the SpaceX IPO… That it's just the start of an Elon Musk $44 trillion "Superconvergence…" An event that could kick off as soon as June 9th.
Click here now to watch hall of fame trader Jon Najarian's full prediction.

The Honest Picture

Here’s the part investors need to understand.

→ Rocket Lab Q1 revenue growth → +54.5%
→ Redwire Q1 revenue growth → +70%
→ BlackSky Q1 revenue growth → -8%
→ HawkEye IPO day-one move → +30%

Companies consistently profitable → Almost none

Revenue across the sector is growing.

Profitability is a different story entirely — building the future is expensive.

That doesn’t necessarily mean these are bad businesses.

It means most of them are still early.

Building rockets, deploying satellites, and creating space infrastructure is enormously capital intensive.

The SpaceX Effect

Here is the question every investor in the sector is wrestling with right now.

What happens when SpaceX finally arrives?

The company is targeting a valuation north of $1.75 trillion and could raise as much as $75 billion in what may become the largest IPO in history.

Its private market valuation has already exploded higher over the last few years.

Meanwhile, Wall Street is already preparing for it.

Nine space-related ETFs have launched or filed in just the past three months.

The infrastructure around the IPO is being built before the IPO itself even exists.

And when SpaceX finally lands in public markets, two very different outcomes could emerge.

Don’t forget to to cast your vote 👇

Poll of the day:

Beef just hit record highs. Are you cutting back?

→ Yes, switching to chicken

→ Nope, worth every penny

→ I've been priced out 😅

→ I stopped eating meat way before this

Lesson Of The Day:

Was this email forwarded to you? Don’t miss out on future stories — subscribe using the button below.

Also, help your friends blossom this spring! Share us with them.

Share the newsletter

💬 We Want To Hear Your Story:

Got a market or stock you want us to analyze next?

Just drop your request in the comments here.

P.S. - If you no longer want to receive occasional emails from us and you want to unsubscribe, click here 👉 “Unsubscribe” . Thank you!

_Disclaimer:_{This letter is not offering investment, trading, or investment advice nor is based on any individual portfolio or business operation. We are not a registered investment, stock nor commodity advisor. One should consult with their own registered advisor to discuss investment strategies that are appropriate for their business or personal goals, risk tolerance and financial situation. Information in this report and on any website is derived from a variety of source believed to be reliable however no representation is made that the information is accurate, complete or correct. These lessons, newsletter and site content is not intended nor shall not constitute or be construed as an offer or recommendation to “buy”, “sell”, “trade” or invest in any securities, commodities, futures, options or other asset referred to in said lessons, reports or newsletters. Rather, this research is intended to identify situations and circumstances that those in the trading community should be aware of to better help assess and improve their own risk management skills.}

_{This publication is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment, trading, or financial advice and is not based on any individual’s financial circumstances, goals, or risk tolerance. We are not registered investment, stock, or commodity advisors. Always consult a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions.}

_{Information provided in this newsletter (and on any affiliated website) is obtained from sources believed to be reliable; however, accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Opinions expressed are those of the authors and are subject to change without notice.}

_{From time to time, this publication may include sponsored content, affiliate links, or advertisements. Such inclusions do not constitute endorsements, and any compensation received does not influence the analysis or opinions presented. TradingLessons is not affiliated with, nor does it verify or guarantee the claims, products, or services of any sponsor or advertiser. Readers should perform their own due diligence before engaging with any advertised offerings.}

_{Nothing herein should be interpreted as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation to buy, sell, or trade any security, commodity, derivative, or other financial instrument. This content is intended solely to highlight market developments and educational insights to help readers enhance their understanding of trading and risk management.}

Update your email preferences or unsubscribe here

141 W. Jackson Blvd
Chicago, IL 60604, United States

Sponsored Links