The Platform Behind Every Police Report Is Getting A Valuation Reset

A hardware brand is quietly turning into a subscription platform, and the selloff may be doing the rerating for you.  ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌

Read Online   Unsubscribe   %20%20%20%20%20%20​ The Platform Behind Every Police Report Is Getting A Valuation Reset The market loves growth stories until it suddenly remembers valuation exists. This one is still growing, still signing long contracts, and now trading like investors want proof all over again. The question is whether the next earnings print confirms a temporary multiple reset, or signals something deeper in the demand curve. Look Deeper (Sponsored) The AI Trade Everyone's Chasing Every investor seems to be chasing the same AI names. Meanwhile, the broader economy is under pressure — even as market indexes sit near record highs. Yes, AI is here to stay. Adoption will accelerate. The technology will keep improving. But trying to predict which company comes out on top? That's speculation. Instead, I'm focusing on something far more certain. One AI outcome that's practically guaranteed — no matter who wins. Here's how I'm positioning for it (By clicking here, you will be subscribed to receive emails from Porter's Daily Journal. Porter's Daily Journal is read by 50,000 of the world's best-informed investors.) What Just Happened Axon Enterprise (NASDAQ: AXON) is sitting near $432, down hard from the highs and roughly 39% lower over the past year, after a multi-year run that made it feel untouchable. The setup now is simple: the business is still executing, but the market is forcing a reality check on multiples. That is why the next catalyst matters. Earnings are coming up on February 24, 2026, and the stock has been trading like a waiting room. Not euphoric. Not panicked. Just cautious. On the surface, the drawdown looks dramatic. Underneath, the underlying story has not obviously broken. Recent results point to about 31% revenue growth to roughly $711 million in the latest quarter, with software and services up more than 40% as agencies leaned further into cloud evidence tools and workflow subscriptions. So why does it feel so fragile? Because Axon gets priced like a premium software platform even though its roots are physical devices and government procurement. When the market rotates away from high-multiple growth, it does not ask politely. It reprices first and asks questions later. The Business People Underestimate Most investors still anchor Axon to the visible products: body cameras and conducted energy devices. That is the easy part to understand, and it is also the part that makes people underestimate the business model. The real engine is what happens after the devices are deployed. Poll: Which system would you most want transparency into? How IPO prices are set How interest rates are determined How insurance premiums are calculated How rating agencies assign grades Monopoly Broken (Sponsored) Big Oil's Monopoly Challenged by Endless Energy A major energy breakthrough is unfolding — and it's moving fast. An MIT-trained scientist has unlocked a virtually inexhaustible energy source, now drawing attention from the Trump administration. According to the U.S. Department of Energy, it could power the world for billions of years. That's why Google, Microsoft, Amazon, General Electric, and Meta are racing to get involved. See what this new fuel means next. The hardware is the entry point Cameras and devices get Axon into an agency's budget, training cycle, and daily operations. That creates a footprint that is difficult to unwind quickly. Want to make sure you never miss a stock recommendation? Elite Trade Club now offers text alerts — so you get trending stocks and market-moving news sent straight to your phone before the bell. Email's great. Texts are faster. 👉 Click here to get our detailed stock analysis sent to your cell for free! The cloud layer is the compounding machine Once footage exists, it has to be uploaded, stored, searched, shared, redacted, and retained. That evidence chain becomes a workflow problem, not a gadget problem. And workflows tend to become subscriptions. The stickiness is practical. Agencies do not want to move years of video archives and rebuild policies, integrations, and courtroom processes just to save a small percentage on software. Once Axon becomes the default way evidence moves through the system, switching costs become real even if nobody calls them that. Pattern Phase One (Sponsored) Charts Don't Repeat Often — This One Did Big moves don't announce themselves — they start quietly. A unique momentum signal just flashed across several small-cap stocks — the same type of setup that preceded some of the fastest surprise rallies in recent years. Our latest free report breaks down the tickers showing early strength, the technical patterns forming now, and why this signal could trigger the next wave higher. When momentum builds in small-caps, it can move fast. [Get the Full Report Here] (By clicking the link above, you agree to receive emails from StockNewsTrends. You can opt out at any time. - Privacy Policy) The platform expands beyond evidence The long-term ambition is bigger than cameras. It is to own more of the public safety operating system: evidence, real-time response tooling, and adjacent software layers that agencies adopt once they are already in the ecosystem. That is what turns a product company into a platform company. Not slogans. Expansion. Why The Stock Looks Weak Even With Fundamentals Holding Up This is the heart of the opportunity and the risk. AXON's decline has less to do with collapsing demand and more to do with the market resetting what it is willing to pay for growth. A few forces are at work: 1) A premium multiple met a tougher market regime When investors start caring more about discount rates and less about distant growth, the first casualties are the stocks that were priced for perfection. Even if Axon keeps growing, the market can compress the multiple and call it prudence. 2) Investors want to see operating leverage, not just growth The story is no longer just about expanding revenue. It is about whether margins and cash flow can scale as the mix shifts toward software. If Axon is still investing heavily, that can be the right move. But the market will demand clearer evidence that investment translates into durable subscription growth and long-term profitability. 3) Government deal cycles create noisy optics Axon sells into agencies and governments. That is not a smooth consumer funnel. It is procurement timing, budget calendars, and big deals that can land late. Even when demand is strong, quarterly variability can spook investors who want software-like predictability. The Numbers That Matter More Than Headlines If you want to strip this down to a scoreboard, a few metrics matter disproportionately. Software and services growth Software and services grew 40%+ in the most recent quarter. That is the clearest signal that the platform layer is scaling. Contracted future revenue Axon ended the quarter with over $11 billion in contracted future revenue and over $2 billion in cash. That is not just balance sheet comfort. It is a signal that agencies are committing to multi-year relationships. Bookings cadence and pipeline tone One thread worth tracking is bookings momentum and deal timing. When the market is nervous, it does not wait for revenue to roll over. It watches bookings for the first crack. What Needs To Go Right From Here If AXON is going to shift from valuation reset back to platform compounder, a few things likely matter most: Continued platform adoption without demand softness Axon can keep winning if agencies keep standardizing around one platform and expanding within it. The market will watch whether expansion continues or if adoption normalizes. A redible path to better operating leverage Nobody is asking for mature software margins overnight. But investors want to see directional progress: revenue up strong, costs growing slower over time, and a clearer bridge from investment mode to leverage. Clarity on 2026 guidance The upcoming earnings report is less about the quarter and more about the forward view. If management's 2026 framing reinforces confidence in sustained growth and contract momentum, it can re-rate quickly. If guidance implies slowing growth or heavier spending without clear payoff, the market will keep the multiple on a short leash. The Risks You Should Take Seriously This is not a one-variable story. Expectation risk Even after the pullback, AXON still trades like a premium franchise in investors' minds. Premium franchises get punished for normal results. Margin and investment risk If Axon has to spend aggressively to defend growth, the market can treat that as a sign of competitive pressure rather than strategic investment. Deal-cycle volatility Procurement and budgeting cycles can create lumpy quarters. That is survivable, but it can keep the stock volatile, especially into earnings. Narrative risk Public safety technology sits in a politically sensitive arena. Anything that shifts policy, funding priorities, or procurement scrutiny can change sentiment fast, even if the core operational need remains. How I'd Frame A Position I would treat AXON as a platform company that is being priced like a question mark again. That is not automatically bullish, but it is where interesting setups form. A reasonable approach is to think in layers: The core thesis is recurring platform adoption and multi-year contract expansion. The near-term swing factor is guidance, bookings confidence, and whether software momentum remains the headline driver. The positioning mindset should look more like a long-duration compounder than a quick trade. If the stock spikes on a good print, it may be smarter to demand follow-through rather than chase one quarter. If it stays weak while contracted future revenue and software growth remain intact, that is usually where longer-term entries start to look more attractive. The Bigger Picture Axon is in the middle of a product-to-platform transition in a market segment where switching costs are operational, not emotional. The selloff is forcing investors to separate hype from durability. The early read from the numbers you shared is that the platform layer is still scaling, contracts are still being signed, and the market is simply demanding proof that growth and profitability can coexist. That is exactly what February 24 is likely to decide: whether this is a temporary valuation reset, or the start of a slower phase that deserves a lower multiple. Bottom Line AXON has been repriced like investors want a fresh reason to believe. The underlying platform story still looks intact, with strong software growth, large contracted future revenue, and a business model that becomes stickier as more evidence lives inside the system. The risk is that guidance confirms deceleration or margin pressure. The upside is that the market has already done much of the multiple compression, leaving room for a re-rating if execution stays clean. Action Recap ✅ What this is: public safety platform with a growing subscription engine ✅ What to watch: software growth, contracted future revenue, bookings tone, 2026 guidance ⚠️ Main risks: valuation sensitivity, margin pressure, deal-cycle lumpiness 🧭 Mindset: platform compounding story, but earnings-driven in the short run That's all for today. Thank you for reading. If you have any feedback, please reply to this email. Best Regards, — Adam Garcia Elite Trade Club   Click here to get our daily newsletter straight to your cell for free. P.S. Just like this newsletter, it's 100% free*, and you can stop at any time by replying STOP.       Legal Stuff: Stocks featured in this newsletter are for entertainment purposes only. You should not base any investment decisions on information contained in my newsletter. Stocks featured in this newsletter may be owned by owners/operators of this website, which could impact our ability to remain unbiased. 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February 21, 2026   |   Read Online Insider-Owned Growth: Why UPST, STUB, and ALAB Stand Out BONUS: Circle March 26th on your calendar First a message from our friends at The Oxford Club (sponsor) Dear Reader, Dr. Mark Skousen here... I'm making the boldest prediction of my 45-year career. It all centers around one date: March 26, 2026. That's when I believe Elon Musk will announce the SpaceX IPO... in what Bloomberg is already calling "the biggest listing of ALL TIME." The SpaceX IPO is anticipated to bring a $1.5 TRILLION valuation. That would be 3,000 times bigger than Amazon's IPO. This is the kind of event that could create countless millionaires. But here's the thing... Most investors will be locked out. They'll have to wait until AFTER the IPO to get in. By then, the biggest gains will be gone. But I've lined up something special just for my readers... I've found a backdoor that lets you grab a pre-IPO stake in SpaceX... BEFORE Elon steps up to that podium! And I'm giving away the ticker for free. Click here to get my free "SpaceX" ticker now. Yours for peace, prosperity, and liberty, AEIOU, Dr. Mark Skousen Macroeconomic Strategist, The Oxford Club P.S. Studies suggest 95% of profits are made BEFORE a company goes public. March 26th is coming fast. Click here to learn how to get positioned now. FEATURED ARTICLE Insider-Owned Growth: 3 Stocks the Market Keeps Whispering About When a growth stock starts trending, most investors do the lazy thing: They buy the story. But when a growth stock is trending and insiders own a meaningful chunk? That's a different animal. Because insider ownership is supposed to do one thing: align incentives. And in the right setup, that alignment can create an edge: insiders think long-term they control key decisions they're more likely to protect the franchise (and the equity) when conditions tighten But here's the cheap-truth: Insider ownership is not automatically bullish. Sometimes it's alignment. Sometimes it's governance risk. Sometimes it's just illiquidity wearing a nice suit. So today we're going to treat this theme the Cheap Investor way: growth + insider influence — but with a hard-numbers filter. Our three case studies: Upstart (UPST) — AI-driven lending with a reset-and-rebuild narrative StubHub (STUB) — newly public, founder-controlled, cash-flow potential with leverage risk Astera Labs (ALAB) — AI infrastructure connectivity with real growth forecasts and premium expectations Scoreboard / What Happened 1) These are "growth" names — with visible forward narratives UPST: Management has guided to ~$1.4B in 2026 revenue, above some analyst expectations in recent reporting. ALAB: Analysts tracked by Simply Wall St discussed ~$1.3B 2026 revenue and ~58% growth (based on their compilation of analyst updates). STUB: StubHub's filings/media coverage point to ~$1.8B in 2024 revenue (+30% YoY), but also show profitability is not yet clean and leverage matters. 2) The "insider influence" angle is real — and measurable UPST: MarketBeat lists insider ownership at ~16.67%. ALAB: Yahoo Finance's roundup lists Astera Labs with ~10.4% insider ownership and ~29% expected earnings growth (per that table). STUB: Barron's notes co-founder/CEO Eric Baker controls ~87.8% of voting stock—that's founder-control on hard mode. 3) The market is treating them like "different flavors" of growth risk As of the latest tape in this thread: UPST ~$29.29 ALAB ~$129.68 STUB ~$9.36 Different prices, different expectations, different fragility points. The Real Reason These Names Are Trending This theme is showing up now because the market is quietly rotating toward a very specific type of growth: Mechanism #1: Growth is back… but investors want "alignment" After a few years of "growth at any price" getting punished, the market has been more willing to pay for growth if it looks durable and disciplined. Insider ownership becomes a narrative shortcut: "They're in it with us." "They're not just renting the stock price." "They can play offense through the cycle." Sometimes that's true. Sometimes it's just marketing. Mechanism #2: Insider ownership changes the downside shape Founder control and insider influence often mean: fewer "do anything to hit the quarter" decisions more tolerance for long-term investment but also: less accountability if they're wrong So you don't buy "insider ownership." You buy the business + balance sheet + expectation gap—with insider ownership as a modifier. Mechanism #3: These three sit in "hot pipes" of the economy AI credit models (UPST) live events monetization + marketplaces (STUB) AI infrastructure connectivity + hyperscaler buildout (ALAB) That's why they keep showing up on screens and chatter. Company/Theme Deep Dive 1) Upstart (UPST): Growth With Insider Ownership… and Macro Sensitivity What it is (plain English) Upstart is an AI-driven lending platform. In good times, it looks like a scalable underwriting engine. In tightening cycles, it can look like a levered sentiment gauge. The key numbers investors are anchoring to Reporting around its outlook points to ~$1.4B revenue in 2026. Insider ownership is cited around ~16.67%. What the market is really debating Not "is AI real?" It's: does credit normalize fast enough for volumes and funding channels to reopen smoothly? UPST is the kind of name that can rip on: easing rate expectations improving credit performance trends better funding liquidity But it can also face fast drawdowns if the cycle turns. 2) StubHub (STUB): Founder-Controlled Growth With Balance-Sheet Reality What it is (plain English) StubHub is a ticketing marketplace. Great businesses in marketplaces can print cash—if they manage take rates, customer acquisition, and leverage. The headline growth + insider influence Reported ~$1.8B revenue in 2024 (+30%), but profitability has been mixed (losses cited in filings/media coverage). Founder/CEO Eric Baker controls ~87.8% of voting stock, which is about as "insider influence" as it gets. Post-IPO coverage emphasized proceeds being used to pay down debt (a big tell: leverage matters here). Cheap Investor translation STUB is not a "nice, steady compounder" yet. It's a control + growth + leverage story. Founder control can keep the strategy consistent (good), but it also reduces the market's ability to push back (risk). If the business hits turbulence, minority shareholders aren't steering the ship. This is one where you want to watch: debt paydown progress unit economics stability competitive pricing pressure (ticket marketplaces are not a monopoly business) 3) Astera Labs (ALAB): High-Growth AI Infrastructure With Real Forecasts (and High Expectations) What it is (plain English) Astera Labs sells connectivity solutions used in high-performance compute environments—think of it as part of the "plumbing" that makes modern AI infrastructure work. The "growth + insider" datapoints A Yahoo Finance piece lists ~10.4% insider ownership and ~29% expected earnings growth for ALAB. Simply Wall St discussed analyst expectations shifting toward ~$1.3B revenue in 2026 and ~58% growth. Another Simply Wall St note highlighted earnings growth expectations around ~28.8% annually (their compilation). Cheap Investor translation ALAB is "quality growth" in the sense that it's tied to a structural buildout. But the price you pay matters because AI infrastructure names often trade like: "everything goes right forever" and any hiccup gets punished quickly Your job isn't predicting the AI future. Your job is monitoring whether execution keeps up with expectations. Valuation & "Is It Cheap?" (How to Think About Insider-Owned Growth) Here's the trap: when a stock is trending, investors start paying for: stories TAM slides "insider alignment" future margins that don't exist yet So we use a Cheap Investor test that's built for growth names: The Two-Step Cheap Investor Test for Insider-Owned Growth Step 1: Is growth visible in the next 12–24 months? UPST has a clear 2026 revenue narrative in recent reporting (~$1.4B). ALAB has explicit analyst-driven revenue growth expectations (~$1.3B, ~58% growth). STUB has strong historical revenue scale, but profitability/leverage are the key gating items. Step 2: Is insider control a tailwind or a governance discount? Moderate insider ownership can be alignment (UPST, ALAB). Extreme voting control can be a governance discount (STUB). Bull / Base / Bear Scenarios Upstart (UPST) Bull: Credit normalizes + funding improves + volumes return; growth narrative re-anchors on 2026 guidance. Base: Growth returns unevenly; stock chops with macro/rate expectations. Bear: Credit stress rises; liquidity tightens; the "AI underwriting" story can't outrun the cycle. StubHub (STUB) Bull: Deleveraging + stable take rates + demand for live events stays strong; marketplace cash flow improves. Base: Revenue holds, but competition + leverage keep valuation capped. Bear: Pricing pressure + slowing ticket demand + debt burden = equity volatility. Astera Labs (ALAB) Bull: AI infrastructure spend stays hot; revenue tracks analyst expectations; earnings growth holds. Base: Growth continues but volatility rises as expectations get "less perfect." Bear: Any hyperscaler digestion cycle or execution hiccup gets punished because expectations are already elevated. Actionable Plan (No Hype, Just Process) You don't need to choose "all in" or "ignore." You need a framework. 1) Pick your lane Lane A: Higher conviction / quality growth ALAB (structural AI infrastructure exposure; watch execution vs expectations) Lane B: Higher volatility / macro-dependent UPST (more sensitive to credit conditions; can move fast both ways) Lane C: Founder-controlled special situation STUB (growth + leverage + governance discount potential) 2) Use a 1/3 – 1/3 – 1/3 scale-in plan Starter position only after the stock proves stability (no knife-catching) Add on confirmation (higher lows + constructive earnings reaction) Add only if the key thesis metric confirms: UPST: volume/funding stability aligned with growth outlook STUB: debt paydown / margin direction ALAB: revenue tracking toward the growth path analysts are modeling 3) Don't let insider ownership trick you into complacency Insiders owning shares doesn't eliminate drawdowns. It just changes the odds that management is playing the long game. Cheap Investor Checklist / Scorecard Track these like a bargain hunter tracking price tags: Insider ownership level and any meaningful insider selling/buying trends (context matters more than headlines) UPST: progress toward the ~$1.4B 2026 revenue narrative; watch quarterly run-rate and guidance tone ALAB: does execution support the ~$1.3B 2026 revenue trajectory analysts are discussing? STUB: debt reduction after IPO and any change in profitability trend Earnings reaction quality: do these stocks hold gains after reports, or fade quickly? Macro sensitivity check: UPST (rates/credit), ALAB (capex cycles), STUB (consumer spend / event demand) Governance discount risk: extreme voting control can cap valuation even if growth is decent (STUB) Bottom Line If the market is hunting growth again, insider influence can be a useful filter—but only when it's paired with: visible growth survivable balance-sheet dynamics realistic expectations UPST is the high-beta credit-growth lever. STUB is the founder-controlled marketplace with leverage and governance tradeoffs. ALAB is the AI infrastructure growth story with real forecast momentum—but premium expectations. Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. Always do your own research before making investment decisions. IMPORTANT NOTICE AND DISCLAIMER Investing Media Solutions, LLC ("IMS"), the owner of this website (the "Website"), cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in any article, email, newsletter, or other publication posted on or viewed in connection with this website (the "Publications"). The author or authors of those Publications are solely responsible for their contents. IMS has not done any research or due diligence into the markets, industries, or companies which may appear or be mentioned in the Publications. 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