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On Wednesday, 911 million SpaceX shares get free to sell, more than the entire public float. The people holding them bought years before you could. That is the whole lesson.
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August 1, 2026 • Weekend edition • No hype, just perspective.
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911 Million SpaceX Shares Get Free to Sell Wednesday. The Public Owns Almost None of Them.
The most valuable public debut in history is about to teach a quiet lesson about who really makes money on an IPO. SpaceX reports its first-ever earnings Tuesday, and two days later, on Wednesday, roughly 911 million insider-held shares, worth around $123 billion, become free to sell for the first time. That is more stock than the entire public float. The people who own those shares bought them years ago, in private rounds, at a small fraction of the $135 the public paid last month.
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Brownstone Research |
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Editor’s Note: Jeff Brown and Marc Chaikin, two investment legends who picked Nvidia 10 years ago, are predicting that by the end of this month, Elon Musk’s new AI breakthrough will collide with a strange market pattern with a flawless 100% track record of massive market gains. Click here to see the details or read more below because the last time this happened everyday folks had a chance to turn $10,000 into as much as $350,000 in just about 12 months.
Dear Reader,
The two investment legends who picked Nvidia 10 years ago…
Just issued a shocking new AI prediction involving the world’s first trillionaire.
They believe that by the end of this month…
Elon Musk’s new AI breakthrough they call “M.A.G.I.”…
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Everyday folks had a chance to turn $10,000 into as much as $350,000 in just about 12 months.
Regards,
Lindsey Hough
Managing Director, Brownstone Research
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By Wednesday
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• The stock: SpaceX closed Friday at $108.37, a new low, below its $135 IPO price and about 52 percent under its June peak of $225.64. It has fallen roughly 30 percent since its debut.
• Tuesday: the company reports its first quarterly results as a public company, the first real look at its finances since the June listing.
• Wednesday: a lock-up expires, freeing up to 20 percent of restricted stock, around 911 million shares worth some $123 billion, to be sold. That block is larger than the public float.
• The owners: those shares belong to early investors, employees and funds who bought long before the IPO, many at a tiny fraction of $135. Elon Musk’s own 6.4 billion shares stay locked until June 2027.
• The read: analyst targets run from $62 to $800, options traders have placed about $26 billion in short bets, and Jim Cramer is telling buyers to wait for the first wave of insider selling to clear.
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Details
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The Public Was Always the Exit
When SpaceX went public on June 12, it was the largest offering the market had ever seen, and the enthusiasm was total. Shares priced at $135, opened higher, and ran to $225 within four days. Retail investors, finally handed a piece of Elon Musk’s rocket company, bought all the way up. Seven weeks later the stock closed Friday at $108.37, a new low, beneath the price of the offering itself. Everyone who bought the IPO and held is underwater. The rockets still launch and Starlink still works. What changed is who is allowed to sell.
Wednesday is the mechanism made visible. For its first two months as a public company, SpaceX has fallen with almost no insider supply hitting the market, because the people holding most of the stock were contractually barred from selling. That barrier lifts in stages, and the first stage is Wednesday, August 6, two days after Tuesday’s earnings. Up to 20 percent of the restricted shares, roughly 911 million of them worth about $123 billion, become eligible to sell. To put that in scale, it is more stock than the entire tradable float the public has been fighting over since June.
The owners are not the public. The shares unlocking Wednesday belong to venture funds, early employees and executives who bought in during private rounds years before the IPO, at prices that were a small fraction of $135. For them, even a sale at $108 is an enormous gain. That is the quiet fact underneath every hot public offering: by the time the shares reach a retail brokerage screen, the people who made the real money already own them, and the listing is the door they use to leave. The first-day pop that looks like a celebration is, for the early holders, the payday they waited years for.
This week showed the other half of the deal. While SpaceX drifted toward its lows, the public market spent the week brutally sorting the biggest companies in the world on single earnings reports. Apple fell about 10 percent in a day, Meta dropped 8 percent, Amazon jumped 13 percent. That is the volatility the public signs up for when it buys the stock. The early, private owners of those same companies were rarely exposed to it the same way; they bought before the crowd and, in many cases, sold into it. Public ownership is where the price discovery, and the pain, happen. Private ownership is where much of the gain was already booked.
The lesson is about timing. None of this predicts that SpaceX collapses on Wednesday. The staggered unlock is designed to avoid a single cliff, analyst targets run all the way to $800, and Musk’s own stake stays locked for another year. The point is structural. The largest returns in a company’s life are captured in the years before it lists, by whoever was early enough to own the private shares. The IPO is the moment that ownership gets handed to everyone else. For an investor watching the AI boom unfold, the takeaway is structural: the surest way to capture a company’s biggest gains is to own it before it ever reaches a public screen.
On Wednesday, about $123 billion of SpaceX stock becomes free to change hands, and most of it belongs to people who were investors in this company long before anyone could buy it on an exchange. That is the real lesson of the biggest IPO in history. The public was invited to the party. The early money came to say goodbye.
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Harold Winston
Thirty years advising individual investors. Now reads markets for a living.
No hype, just perspective.
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