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U.S. Withdraws From WHO But Still Dependent on Flu Vaccine Network - For Now

What Happened

The United States has begun the process of withdrawing from the World Health Organization (WHO), following an executive order in January signaling its intent to leave. Despite the withdrawal, U.S. officials are still expected to participate in upcoming meetings tied to global influenza surveillance, including sessions that help determine the composition of the 2026–2027 Northern Hemisphere flu vaccine.

Each year, the World Health Organization convenes experts to review data from its Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System, a network of more than 150 laboratories in over 120 countries. The group analyzes which influenza strains are circulating and recommends which should be included in seasonal vaccines. These recommendations are typically issued in February for the Northern Hemisphere and in September for the Southern Hemisphere.

WHO guidance does not legally bind countries, but it strongly influences national health authorities and vaccine manufacturers. In the United States, the Food and Drug Administration makes the final decision on vaccine composition, generally aligning with WHO's analysis and its own advisory committees.

WHO officials have acknowledged periodic funding and reporting challenges that can affect the flow of virus samples, though the surveillance network continues to operate. Even as the U.S. formalizes its withdrawal, cooperation on influenza monitoring appears to be continuing, at least for now.

Why It Matters

Influenza viruses mutate frequently and spread quickly across borders. Because strains often emerge in one region before spreading to others, international data sharing plays an integral role in predicting which variants are most likely to circulate months later. The WHO network compiles viral samples and genetic sequencing data from around the world, providing scientists with a far better view than any single country could assemble on its own.

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Vaccine production requires long lead times. Manufacturers typically select three or four strains, then grow them in eggs or cell-based systems, test for quality and safety, and distribute millions of doses ahead of the fall flu season. If predictions about circulating strains miss the mark, vaccine effectiveness can decline.

The 2017–2018 flu season illustrates that risk. During that year, vaccine effectiveness in the United States was estimated at about 38% overall, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The season was associated with an estimated 61,000 U.S. deaths, making it one of the deadliest in recent years. While flu severity depends on many factors, strain mismatch can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines in preventing illness.

The U.S. withdrawal from the WHO raises practical questions about long-term access to global surveillance data and collaborative research. Should participation in international networks become more limited, American health officials may need to rely more heavily on domestic surveillance or bilateral agreements. Any disruption in data flow could complicate strain selection decisions, though it is not yet clear how significantly current cooperation will change.

How It Affects You

The effectiveness of annual flu shots is heavily dependent on how accurately scientists predict which strains will circulate during the upcoming season. Those predictions are primarily supported by global surveillance data collected months in advance. If access to this international data were reduced, it could narrow the information available when vaccine strain decisions are made.

Timing is crucial, as recommendations issued in late winter guide vaccine production for distribution in the fall. Manufacturers must commit to specific strains well before flu season begins, leaving little room for adjustment. Accurate forecasting improves the odds that the vaccine you receive will closely match circulating viruses.

For now, collaboration on influenza surveillance appears to be continuing despite the U.S.'s formal withdrawal process. The long-term structure of that relationship will shape how closely the United States remains tied to the global system that underpins seasonal flu vaccine development.

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Elon Musk just flipped the switch on “Project X”

Dear Reader,

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What Could Be Next Heading Into 2026?

Dear Reader,

As 2025 winds down, one thing has become clear: many of the most notable moves didn't start with headlines, they started quietly.

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