Editor’s Note: Jeff Brown and Marc Chaikin, two investment legends who picked Nvidia 10 years ago, are predicting that by the end of this month, Elon Musk’s new AI breakthrough will collide with a strange market pattern with a flawless 100% track record of massive market gains. Click here to see the details or read more below because the last time this happened everyday folks had a chance to turn $10,000 into as much as $350,000 in just about 12 months.
Dear Reader,
Take a look at Elon Musk’s new patent below…
Because it protects a new invention that could rewrite the future of wealth forever.
I’m talking about a radical new form of AI I call “M.A.G.I.”
One so revolutionary that Elon called it an “infinite money glitch.”
Click here to see the details because he believes this is a once-in-a-generation opportunity to create wealth on a scale most people can’t even comprehend.
What’s the upside potential here?
I know this is going to sound crazy…
But Elon is projecting growth of over 7,000,000%.
Let that sink in.
That’s enough to turn $100 into more than $7 million.
This sounds absolutely insane.
But then again… everything Elon has ever done sounded insane at first.
Self-driving cars.
Reusable rockets that land themselves.
Brain chips that let paralyzed people control computers with their minds.
Crazy ideas.
But he turned them into trillion-dollar realities.
So here’s the real question…
Will you watch Elon build another empire from the sidelines…
Or will you finally position yourself to potentially become one of the winners in his next trillion-dollar revolution?
Click here to get the details because I believe Elon will flip the switch on this new invention by the end of this month.
We have so much to look forward to,
Jeff Brown
Founder & CEO, Brownstone Research
Today’s editorial pick for you
Forget Big Oil: The Iran Crisis Shines a Spotlight on Petrobras Stock
Posted On Jul 14, 2026 by Joshua Enomoto
Don’t get me wrong. With the Iranian navy attacking a container ship in the Strait of Hormuz and later announcing that it would close the critical waterway, the spotlight has once again shined brightly on big oil giants likeExxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) and Chevron (NYSE: CVX). There’s nothing wrong with targeting these securities, especially for longer-term strategies. But for those who are seeking a quick scalp, more love should be directed toward Petrobras (NYSE: PBR).
Table of Contents
A Brazilian majority state-owned multinational corporation, Petrobras has suffered a downward slide between the end of April and the beginning of July. However, with the renewed hostilities in Iran, circumstances have cynically moved positively for PBR stock. Over the past five sessions, for example, the security has gained more than 7% of value.
To be fair, the afterhours session on Friday has demonstrated a sideways consolidation. However, with the latest geopolitical spark that was reported on Saturday evening by the New York Times, it’s quite likely that PBR stock and the broader fossil-fuel energy market will rise.
Of course, that’s an obvious inference as a renewed conflict would again impose an inflationary crisis on the global economy, not to mention the catastrophic energy supply chain disruption. Because there’s so much at stake, there’s a non-zero probability that the Trump administration will back down. From just a political angle, the war is deeply unpopular. Plus, it wouldn’t be the first time the White House walked back its previously tough stance.
With that in mind, I’m looking for a near-expiry debit-based options trade. By this, I believe that an argument could be made for a directional trade. Under this framework, I want to pay a debit (start from a cash outflow position) to bet on a particular outcome materializing. Essentially, a debit spread on PBR stock is a low-probability, high-reward wager.
However, it’s more than possible that the way the “low probability” is measured by the market is flawed, opening a door to astute retail traders.
Get rid of overpriced AI stocks before a scheduled announcement on July 31st threatens to reshuffle the stock market's winners and losers.
Smaller, lesser-known names are now showing the overwhelming potential to dethrone AI's Magnificent 7. On July 31st, this little-known stock in particular could soar while Tesla faceplants.
How the World Cup Provides a Lesson on Petrobras Stock
For sports fans everywhere, this year is particularly magical because of the World Cup. Even casual observers have tuned into the soccer tournament as they cheer on the globe’s best players. But what’s fascinating about the beautiful game is how the structure changes as soon as one team scores.
Typically, following the initial kickoff, both teams are cagey — feeling each other out while making sure not to make an early mistake. But as the game drags on and a team eventually makes a breakthrough, the nature of the competition changes. Suddenly, the team with the lead has an incentive to be more defensive-minded, while the team that was scored on must chase the game.
At half-time, each manager could make strategic and personnel changes — all in response to one goal. Now, the question for PBR stock or any other publicly traded security is this: if a soccer team changes how it operates based on shifting conditions in the game, why would the equities market be any different?
Here’s a clear, quantitative example. In the last 10 weeks, PBR stock printed only three up weeks, leading to a downward slope. Before I get into the forward 10-week distribution conditioned for this 3-7-D sequence, ask yourself this: would Petrobras stock respond differently if it had printed only three down weeks, thereby leading to an upward slope?
My theory is yes, the market would almost certainly act differently. Why? Because nowadays, the dominant forces in the equities sector use algorithmic or rules-based trading. When the algos of advanced hedge funds notice that PBR stock flashes a 3-7-D sequence, it may interpret that as a temporary discounted opportunity. Even better, the data puts inductive weight on the theory.
Conditioned for the 3-7-D sequence (which has flashed 24 times on a rolling basis since January 2019), the expected 10-week forward distribution of PBR stock would likely stand between $16 and $22, with probability density peaking around $18.20. That’s assuming a starting price of $17.32, Friday’s close.
Why is this observation significant? Because as a random baseline, the expected forward distribution of PBR stock would be between $17.25 and $17.60, with probability density peaking near $17.41. On average across the spectrum, you’re looking at a 4.54% positive variance.
Playing the Inductive Card Shrewdly for Petrobras Stock
Although the forward distribution of Petrobras stock under 3-7-D conditions statistically has a better expected performance outcome than the random baseline, the trajectory may not be linear. From an inductive viewpoint, PBR has a tendency of rising through the first four weeks before taking a conspicuous dip on week 5.
Obviously, there’s no guarantee of the uniformity of nature, meaning that anything could happen this time around. However, if we were to play the numbers, the 17.50/18 bull call spread expiring July 31 could be interesting. Over the next three weeks, PBR stock would be expected to rise through the $18 level, which should trigger the second-leg strike. Doing so at expiration would result in a 150% maximum payout.
What’s really eye-catching here is the net debit, which is only $20 per spread. It’s a tantalizing opportunity but the reason is that the market only assigns a probability of 38% that PBR stock will rise to $17.70, the breakeven point for the above spread.
While 38% sounds dangerously low, this figure is calculated largely by the distance (in standard deviations) the spot price is from the target threshold, assuming a risk-neutral, log-normal distribution. However, as I just explained with the World Cup example, a distribution of outcomes is likely to change based on shifting conditions.
In this case, we shouldn’t calculate the probability of PBR stock assuming risk neutrality. Instead, we must calculate it based on its current sentiment state, which is negative. Observationally, because of the extended negativity, there’s a greater chance of positive mean reversion.
Fundamentally, I dispute the market’s low probability of profit (reaching breakeven). Indeed, the odds that Petrobras stock rises above $17.32 by the end of week 3 is 70.8% (or 17 occurrences over 24 times). I wouldn’t be surprised, then, if the chance of PBR hitting $17.70 is between 58% to 60%, not 38%.
The Billion-Dollar Moves Behind Today's Dividend Stories
What do a multibillion-dollar EV retreat, one of the largest AI infrastructure financings of the year, and a wave of dividend increases have in common?
They all reveal where corporate America is placing its biggest bets—and where management teams are confident enough to reward shareholders.
In today's Dividend Brief, we connect the stories behind this week's biggest moves and highlight the dividend opportunities that deserve a closer look.
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Autos
A $10.9 Billion EV Reset Sends Cadillac Back to Gas
General Motors (NYSE: GM) is bringing new gas-powered Cadillac vehicles to market beginning next spring, marking a major reversal from its earlier plan to make the luxury brand fully electric by the end of the decade.
The move follows slower EV adoption, regulatory changes, and $10.9 billion in EV-related charges recorded by GM since the second half of last year.
Cadillac will now sell new gas models alongside its expanding electric lineup, rather than forcing the entire brand toward a single powertrain.
The EV Reset Gets Expensive
The $10.9 billion in charges shows the scale of GM’s course correction. Plants, production plans, and future vehicle programs are being adjusted as the company lowers its dependence on faster EV adoption.
From your driveway, the shift looks like more choice. Inside GM, it means protecting Cadillac sales while ensuring that expensive factories and product lines align with real demand.
Manufacturing Follows the New Strategy
GM is also moving more production to the United States, including adding full-size SUV manufacturing at a Michigan plant previously planned for electric vehicles.
The change strengthens output for the Escalade, Chevrolet Tahoe and Suburban, and GMC Yukon family.
Follow those factory decisions, and you find the larger GM move. The company is no longer building its future around an EV-only deadline, but around flexibility, profitable vehicles, and the ability to change production as customers change.
GM currently trades at $79 and pays a dividend of $0.72 per share, a yield of 0.91%.
Media
Paramount’s $110 Billion Media Empire Plan Just Hit a Major Roadblock
Paramount’s proposed $110 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery has been temporarily paused for 14 days, creating a major interruption to the company’s plan to complete the transaction by September.
For Paramount, the issue goes far beyond a short pause. The Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition sits at the center of its effort to build a much larger media company capable of competing across streaming, film, television, news, and live entertainment.
Streaming Scale Stays at the Center
The deal would give Paramount a stronger streaming position by bringing Paramount+ and HBO Max together. It would also expand the company’s library, franchises, sports reach, advertising inventory, and international distribution.
Put your focus on scale. Paramount needs a larger platform to spread content costs, reduce duplication, strengthen its negotiating position, and compete more effectively with Netflix and other global streaming companies.
Execution Pressure Gets Heavier
The pause does not end the transaction, but it adds pressure to Paramount’s closing schedule and broader restructuring plans. Integration work, strategic decisions, and future operating priorities remain tied to whether the deal moves forward.
For Paramount, you now have a company defending the transaction that is supposed to define its next era.
The longer the process runs, the more important it becomes for Paramount to maintain stability in its current business while protecting the value of the larger combination.
PARA currently trades at $8 and pays a dividend of $0.20 per share, a yield of 2.35%.
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Asset Management
BlackRock Just Put More Than $12 Billion Behind Meta's Texas Data Center
BlackRock (NYSE: BLK) is preparing to raise more than $12 billion in bonds to help finance a major Meta data center campus in El Paso, Texas.
The project places the world's largest asset manager at the center of one of the biggest infrastructure buildouts tied to rising demand for computing capacity.
Infrastructure Becomes a Bigger Business
BlackRock is not building the campus itself.
The company is using its infrastructure and private-credit platforms to organize the capital behind it, giving BlackRock a larger role in projects that require long-term funding and reliable tenants.
Follow the structure, and you'll find the real company move: BlackRock is expanding beyond traditional asset management by becoming a central financing partner for large corporate infrastructure projects.
Risk Stays Inside the Project
The bonds are being issued through a holding company that owns BlackRock's stake rather than directly through BlackRock itself. The project's assets and cash flows support the debt, keeping the financing separate from the parent company.
Put your attention on that separation. BlackRock can manage a huge transaction, collect fees across the investment structure, and limit direct exposure at the corporate level.
As more companies build expensive campuses, energy systems, and digital facilities, you have BlackRock positioned to finance the work without becoming the operator.
The El Paso project strengthens its strategy of earning recurring fees by managing the capital behind the next generation of infrastructure.
BLK currently trades at $1038.00 and pays a dividend of $22.92 per share, a yield of 2.21%.
Dividend Stocks Worth Watching
Cummins (NYSE: CMI) just approved a 10% quarterly dividend increase, from $2.00 to $2.20 per share, payable September 3 to holders of record on August 21. That's the kind of raise you get from a company that sees its order book firming into next year, not one that's stretching to keep dividend-growth status.
Heavy-duty truck orders have been rebuilding, the power generation business is running near capacity thanks to data center demand, and the Accelera zero-emissions arm is finally landing real contracts.
If you want an industrial with a real cash flow engine behind the payout, CMI is worth putting on the shortlist ahead of its next earnings print.
J.M. Smucker (NYSE: SJM) lifted its quarterly dividend from $1.10 to $1.12, a modest 1.8% raise that says more about discipline than confidence.
The stock has been range-bound while management works through the Hostess integration, and the payout still leaves plenty of room for debt paydown.
If you're the type who prefers a boring, low-beta consumer staples name that pays you to wait, SJM belongs on your watchlist. The catalyst you want is a clean fiscal Q1 print showing Hostess synergies are landing, and that's when the multiple could re-rate.
PepsiCo (NASDAQ: PEP) raised its quarterly dividend 4% to $1.48 per share, pushing its streak of consecutive annual increases past the 50-year mark.
The stock has pulled back this year as GLP-1 weight-loss drug fears weigh on snack volumes, and that has the trailing yield sitting near 4.4%, well above where PEP typically trades.
If you want a blue-chip compounder where the bad news is already in the price and the payout keeps growing regardless, PEP deserves a spot on your radar heading into the next earnings print.
Dividend Increases
Citigroup (C) raised its quarterly payout 11.7% to $0.67 from $0.60. Trailing yield sits near 2%.
Cummins (CMI) boosted its quarterly dividend 10% to $2.20 from $2.00. New yield: roughly 1.3%.
PepsiCo (PEP) lifted its quarterly payout 4% to $1.48 per share. Trailing yield near 4.4%.
AbbVie (ABBV) bumped its quarterly dividend to $1.73 per share. Yield sits near 2.7%.
Dividend Decreases
Conagra Brands (CAG) cut its quarterly dividend roughly in half to $0.175 per share. New yield near 4.8%.
FMC Corporation (FMC) reduced its quarterly payout to $0.08, continuing a series of cuts. Yield near 2.8%.
San Juan Basin Royalty Trust (SJT) suspended its July distribution entirely.
Sysco Corporation (NYSE: SYY), ex-date July 24: $0.55 quarterly
APA Corporation (NASDAQ: APA), ex-date July 22: $0.25 quarterly
Comcast (NASDAQ: CMCSA), ex-date July 22: $0.33 quarterly
Everything Else
🛰️ Three small-cap stocks across AI, energy, and emerging tech are quietly displaying early-stage characteristics that tend to precede the biggest moves in the market.
🎮 Sony’s PlayStation disc strategy threatens a roughly $7 billion resale market as gaming continues shifting toward digital distribution.
👟 Nike is cutting off thousands of online distributors in China as it tightens control over inventory, pricing, and its digital sales channels.
🏛️ A U.S. senator urged Wall Street firms to reject paid early access to Trump’s posts, warning the practice could create an unfair trading advantage.
🔐 Australia’s Origin Energy is investigating potential unauthorized data access, adding another major company to the growing list facing cybersecurity threats.
That’s all for today’s edition of the Dividend Brief.
Thanks for reading, and if you have any feedback or dividend stocks you want me to take a look at, just reply to this email!
—Noah Zelvis
DividendBrief.com
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