How Markets Move in Cycles – And Why it Matters Now

TradeSmith's ground-breaking innovation uncovers hidden seasonality patterns in thousands of stocks…

How Markets Move in Cycles – And Why it Matters Now VIEW IN BROWSER Editor’s Note: Some of the most powerful investment insights don’t come from predicting what will happen next – they come from recognizing patterns that have been repeating for years. My colleague Keith Kaplan has been studying one of those patterns most investors overlook: Seasonality in stock prices. Not broad market trends, but the specific times of year when individual stocks have historically made their biggest moves. If you’re a longtime reader, then you probably know that I’ve been a student of seasonal market patterns for decades. But Keith and his team at TradeSmith have taken things a step further... By using decades of data and sophisticated analytics, they’ve uncovered recurring “buy” and “sell” windows across thousands of stocks. To explain how this works – and why these cycles could be especially important in 2026 – Keith has prepared a special presentation called Prediction 2026, which goes live Tuesday, Jan. 20, 2025 at 10 a.m. Eastern. You can register here now to attend the event. In the meantime, Keith explains below why understanding when things happen has mattered for thousands of years. Human progress didn’t start with better tools. It started with better timing. Early humans paid close attention to repeating patterns in nature – the length of days, the return of floods, the timing of animal migrations. Those observations gave rise to the first calendars – sometimes recorded in stone, and often anchored to the predictable cycles of the sun, moon, and stars. This helped early farmers decide when to plant and harvest crops, and helped hunters know when herds would pass through a region. These cycles didn’t explain why things happened. They explained when happened. And that knowledge was enough to plan around. And when it comes to humanity’s long fascination with cycles, few monuments are as widely studied as Stonehenge in southern England. Stonehenge, a prehistoric monument near Salisbury in southern England Built about 4,500 years ago in several phases, Stonehenge is among the best-known prehistoric monuments. One enduring theory about Stonehenge rests on its alignment. Its main axis points toward the sunrise on the summer solstice. That’s led archaeologists to argue that Stonehenge was designed, at least in part, to mark key points in the solar year – signals that would have helped early societies anticipate seasonal change in a world where timing meant survival. Building a monument like this likely required generations of careful observation, tracking the sun’s annual path using little more than fixed landmarks and sightlines. Today, we don’t need to build huge stone structures to detect patterns that can help us thrive. We have more detailed data at our disposal and a lot more analytical power to help us put it all together. At TradeSmith, our mission is to give everyday investors access to the kinds of data and analytics once reserved for hedge funds. That work has led us to uncover a feature of the market that’s often overlooked: seasonality in stock movements. You can’t see these cycles with the naked eye. They only show up after you run decades of data through powerful algorithms to look for them. But once you do, a surprising picture emerges. Thousands of stocks have historically reliable windows – specific times of year when they tend to rise and others when they tend to fall. That includes bull and bear markets, manias and panics, wars, pandemics, and more. And I’m proud to say that, at TradeSmith, we’ve developed cutting-edge software to track those patterns. We’ve also created a rapid-fire trading strategy based on these signals that can pinpoint bullish seasonality windows on 5,000 stocks – to the day. In our backtests, the system’s trades have won with 83% accuracy. You can try it yourself right now to see the “green day” for 5,000 different stocks when you register for our Prediction 2026 event, which airs next Tuesday, Jan. 20, 2026 at 10 a.m. Eastern. During that event, we’ll explain exactly how this works, including a new way to apply this secret in a model portfolio that’s turned every $10,000 into $85,700 in our backtests. Then read on for more on the seasonality phenomenon in markets and how, over the last 15 years, some stocks have followed their seasonality windows with 100% historical accuracy. Recommended Link The perfect stock to own right now 2026 is making room for stocks that failed to make headlines in 2025, but whose real growth was impossible to ignore. This particular stock I love has almost doubled in price over the past year, but the runway for growth is limitless. Because in a single data center, there is enough of this company’s components to circle the globe 8 TIMES OVER. Get all the details on the perfect stock to replace the overhyped tech names paying a steep price as they come back down to earth. Seasonality Affects Markets, Too Commodity traders, for example, have long tracked planting and harvest cycles in crops like corn and wheat. Energy traders watch seasonal demand shifts tied to winter heating and summer cooling. The gold market has recurring seasonal tendencies, often strengthening during certain parts of the year tied to jewelry demand, central bank buying, and annual festivals in India and China. And stock investors have studied phenomena like the January Effect for decades. Even Wall Street’s old saying – “Sell in May and go away” – comes from observed seasonal behavior, not theory. But we’ve discovered that seasonality doesn’t just apply just to commodities and the big stock market index. Every stock has its own seasons to rise or fall – a kind of summer and a kind of winter, too – year after year. Big-box retailer Target (TGT) provides a good example. As one of America’s largest retailers, this stock moves with the rhythms of consumer spending throughout the year. But for all the money won – and lost – on Target over the last few years, there’s one certainty... Between June 22 and July 21, you want to buy the retail bellwether. Target has moved up an average of 5.2% during that summer period, rising 100% of the time over the past 15 years: That’s 15 years of summertime price spikes, starting long before it fell under the pandemic-era spotlight. And in 2025, the pattern held true: Target rose 10.3% during its 29-day seasonally bullish window. The chart you’re seeing above is from one of the breakthrough innovations from TradeSmith’s team of researchers, software engineers, and quant investors: our ground-breaking Trade Cycles Seasonality tool. It’s an easy-to-use tool that can take one of thousands of commonly traded stocks, analyze its movements, and point out its strongest seasonality trends – with starting periods narrowed down to the day. Here’s another example of a strong seasonality pattern, this time in Home Depot (HD): Over the last 15 years, between June 15 to July 27, Home Depot’s share price has risen 93% of the time, with an average return of 4.7%. And in 2025, the pattern held true again. It rose from $349.31 on June 16 to $372.69 on July 28 – a 6.7% gain in a just over a month. A Powerful New System for Seasonal Profits Target and Home Depot are just two examples among many others. Our development team has fine-tuned this tool to uncover seasonality cycles in stocks, stock market indexes like the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, as well as in currencies and commodities. By crunching the data and compiling the historical movements of thousands of different assets and running 50,000 tests a day to analyze every stock in the major indexes, we’ve built a new system to help predict the biggest jumps on 5,000 stocks. Over our 18-year backtest, these seasonal trades delivered 857% in total growth. That’s more than twice what the S&P 500 delivered over the same time. Even in 2007, the worst year in our testing, we saw an average gain of 2.5% and an annualized return of 37.9%. That’s close to four times the average annual gain of the S&P 500. The question now: How can we make this powerful system work for you? The Power of Seasonality Is Now in Your Hands Go here to register for access to an “unlocked” version TradeSmith’s ground-breaking Seasonality tool. Then you can explore the results of our powerful research for the stocks you own or are thinking of buying. It’s available online until next Monday, Jan. 19. Then on Tuesday, Jan. 20, 2026 at 10 a.m. Eastern during our Prediction 2026 webinar, I’ll show you how our Seasonality tool can help you find the best time to buy and sell a stock – down to the day. And as we start the new year, a new batch of these seasonal cycles is about to kick off… And we’ll be sharing unfiltered access to the Seasonality tool and the top seasonal recommendations this year as part of our Trade Cycles trading advisory. Go here now to register for the event – and give TradeSmith’s Seasonality tool a try, free of charge, before the big event. I hope to see you there! Keith Kaplan CEO, TradeSmith

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Takeover chatter heats up, Nasdaq compliance lifts one name, and momentum plays unwind.  ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌

Read Online   Unsubscribe   %20%20%20%20%20%20​​ A Takeover Tightens Control, Compliance Clears the Path, and Hype Trades Unwind Fast A control shift sparked takeover-style speculation, while a compliance win lifted another micro-cap. But the hottest momentum names cooled off fast, with traders unwinding hype-fueled runs. Quiet Beneficiaries (Sponsored) Only 2.88M Shares Outstanding—Cybersecurity Momentum Is Building This AI-powered cybersecurity provider serves Fortune-level enterprises and federal agencies nationwide. Recent contract wins have pushed backlog beyond $70M, extending revenue visibility for years. Run-rate revenue is climbing rapidly as new government and enterprise deployments go live. With institutional capital now involved and supply extremely limited, timing may matter. Explore the setup before it's widely noticed Markets Wall Street closed slightly lower as fresh tariff uncertainty resurfaced after Trump threatened new levies tied to Greenland, pressuring sentiment. Meanwhile, strong economic data reinforced expectations that the Fed will keep rates higher for longer, limiting gains despite solid earnings. DJIA [-0.17%] S&P 500 [-0.06%] Nasdaq [-0.06%] Russell 2k [+0.13%] Market-Moving News Logistics One Company, Two Playbooks: FedEx Chooses Focus FedEx Corp. (NYSE: FDX) is formally moving into a structural reset by advancing plans to spin off FedEx Freight as a standalone public company. With regulatory filings now underway, this is no longer a strategic thought exercise; it is an execution decision that reshapes how FedEx operates going forward. Two Businesses, Two Realities FedEx Freight is the largest less-than-truckload carrier in North America, with economics that bear little resemblance to those of parcel delivery. Separating it allows each business to pursue what it actually needs, not what fits a combined structure. If you have ever watched logistics companies struggle under complexity, this split removes internal friction. Freight and parcel no longer have to compromise on capital, pricing, or operational priorities. Freight Gets Its Own Steering Wheel As an independent company, FedEx Freight can focus entirely on LTL fundamentals like terminal density, yield management, and network efficiency. That focus matters in a segment where small execution gaps quickly show up in margins and service quality. If you are following the freight market, independence gives this unit sharper tools. Decisions move faster when they are not competing with express aircraft and last-mile vans for attention. For the remaining FedEx, the spinoff simplifies the portfolio and tightens responsibility around express and ground operations. Clearer business lines make performance easier to measure and harder to hide behind scale. Aerospace Not Every Flying Car Is a City Toy New Horizon Aircraft (NASDAQ: HOVR) is taking a different path in advanced air mobility, deliberately steering away from short-range urban air taxis. Instead, the company is building hybrid-electric aircraft for missions where range, payload, and reliability actually drive adoption. This Is Not a City Shuttle The Cavorite X7 is designed for 300- to 500-mile missions, with performance closer to that of conventional aircraft than that of lightweight eVTOL concepts. That immediately shifts the opportunity set toward defense, medevac, emergency response, and remote access operations. If you step back and look at where aviation budgets are actually spent, these are the use cases that scale. Urban hops make headlines, but endurance and flexibility keep fleets flying. Execution Comes Before Buzz New Horizon's near-term focus is not mass deployment but engineering discipline, prototype completion, and certification progress. Government-backed funding tied to avionics and all-weather capability supports that timeline without forcing rushed commercialization. When you look under the hood, this is a company prioritizing credibility over speed. Certification milestones matter more here than splashy demo flights. The strategy is not to replace helicopters overnight, but to outperform them on speed, efficiency, and range while keeping vertical lift. That makes integration into current workflows far easier for operators. New Horizon is building for operators who need aircraft to work on bad days, not just good press days. Long Track Records (Sponsored) 7 Established Stocks Offering Better Value Today Seven large-cap stocks are being quietly accumulated by smart investors while the market remains in turmoil. Each company has strong fundamentals and catalysts that could drive a rapid price correction. One stock has posted record earnings but is 20% off its highs. Another is about to complete a valuable tax-free spin-off. Take action now before this opportunity disappears. Click here for your free report. (By clicking this link you agree to receive emails from Trading Tips and our affiliates. You can opt out at any time. - Privacy Policy) Banking JPMorgan Moves the Finish Line Forward JPMorgan (NYSE: JPM) is building a new growth engine inside its investment bank by launching a dedicated private capital advisory team. The move reflects a structural shift as companies stay private longer, raise larger rounds, and demand flexible capital long before public markets enter the picture. The IPO Is No Longer the First Call JPMorgan is pushing upstream, advising on early equity, preferred structures, convertibles, secondaries, and private credit. This allows the bank to influence capital strategy years before a listing is even discussed. If you assumed banks only mattered at the IPO stage, this quietly resets that assumption. Private capital is no longer adjacent to investment banking; it is core to it. Companies now expect the same sophistication in private rounds that public issuers once demanded. When you look at where growth companies actually raise money today, this is where relationships are built or lost. One Partner, Not a Relay Race The strategy is also defensive. Private credit funds and boutique advisors have been filling gaps left by traditional banks. The result is a bank betting that influence compounds earlier than revenue. JPMorgan is positioning itself to own the relationship long before the bell ever rings. Want to make sure you never miss our post-market roundup? Elite Trade Club now offers text alerts — so you get trending stocks and market-moving news sent straight to your phone right after the closing bell rings. Email's great. Texts are faster. 👉 Click here to get our closing report to your cell for free! Top Winners and Losers   Venus Concept Inc [VERO] $7.89 (+451.82%) Venus Concept surged after Madryn Asset Management disclosed it now controls about 91% of the company, fueling speculation around a restructuring and aggressive cost-cutting plan. Baiya International Group Inc [BIYA] $6.76 (+49.89%) Baiya rose after Nasdaq confirmed the company regained compliance with both the $1 minimum bid price rule and the stockholders' equity requirement. ImmunityBio, Inc [IBRX] $5.52 (+39.79%) ImmunityBio rallied after reporting a massive jump in Anktiva revenues and strong momentum in bladder cancer commercialization, extending its recent winning streak.       Springview Holdings Ltd [SPHL] $7.43 (-57.32%) Springview pulled back after its huge +674% surge as traders took profits, with the market realizing the solar deal is only a non-binding MOU with limited near-term visibility. Rich Sparkle Holdings Limited [ANPA] $99.66 (-36.88%) Rich Sparkle dipped as momentum cooled after the Khaby Lame acquisition hype, triggering profit-taking following a sharp speculative run-up. Sigma Lithium Corp [SGML] $12.27 (-13.89%) Sigma slumped after Canaccord downgraded the stock, and fresh concerns resurfaced about operational risk at its Brazil mine, including regulatory pushback around waste piles.     Poll: What feels more stressful to plan for? Uncertainty Longevity Emergencies Change Subtle Moves Matter (Sponsored) A New Indicator Suggests A Coming Acceleration Big market shifts rarely start with headlines—they start with signals. The last time this one appeared, a little-known stock jumped from $1.05 to $28.60 in days. Now, that same pattern has returned—and early movers are already positioning. History doesn't repeat exactly, but it often rhymes. Don't wait for CNBC to notice. [Get Free Access Now] (By clicking the link above, you agree to receive emails from StreetIdeas. You can opt out at any time. - Privacy Policy) Everything Else The U.S. is looking at swapping heavy Venezuelan crude for domestic barrels to refill its emergency reserve, a logistics fix dressed up as energy diplomacy. ClickHouse landed a $15 billion valuation as AI demand keeps pushing database plumbing into the spotlight. Netflix earnings may matter less this quarter as attention drifts to unanswered questions around the Warner Bros deal. Cengage Group is weighing a roughly $500 million IPO, testing whether education assets can still pass the public market exam. U.S. stocks edged higher with bank earnings and economic datadoing just enough to keep sentiment on the right side of calm. That's it for today! Please, write us back, and let us know what you think of the Closing Bell Roundup. We're always eager to hear feedback! Thanks for reading. I'll see you at the next open!  Best Regards, — Adam G. Elite Trade Club   Click here to get our daily newsletter straight to your cell for free. P.S. Just like this newsletter, it's 100% free*, and you can stop at any time by replying STOP.     Legal Stuff: Stocks featured in this newsletter are for entertainment purposes only. You should not base any investment decisions on information contained in my newsletter. Stocks featured in this newsletter may be owned by owners/operators of this website, which could impact our ability to remain unbiased. 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