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Markets Are in Correction. History Says Pay Attention.
The Dow entered correction territory last week. The Nasdaq is already there. The Russell 2000 got there before either of them. And the S&P 500 broke below its 200-day moving average on the way down. CNN's Fear & Greed gauge ended Friday at 10.22 out of 100 — extreme fear by any definition.
I've been doing this long enough to know what that number means. It does not mean buy everything today. It means the window that rewards the patient, prepared investor is cracking open. This is exactly when it pays to do the work — when everyone else is too scared to look.
Four stories worth your attention this week.
— The Behind the Markets Team
1. The VIX Is Telling You Something. Are You Listening?
Last week the VIX closed at 31.05. That was its highest close since the panic flare-up last April, and it came after another intramonth spike that briefly sent it above 35.
Most investors see a VIX at 31 and feel sick. Understandable. But here's what the data actually says: once fear gets this elevated, forward returns have historically improved, not worsened. One SentimenTrader study cited last year showed median S&P 500 gains of 11.0% six months later and 17.9% 12 months later after major panic conditions eased.
That does not mean the bottom is in today. The S&P 500 is below its 200-day moving average, headline-driven volatility is rising, and the March jobs report lands on Good Friday, April 3, when the stock market is closed. Whatever that number says, stocks will not be able to react until Monday, April 6. That setup creates real risk for the next open.
The bottom line: This is a holiday-shortened week with a market-moving data event landing when trading desks are dark. That creates risk on Monday morning. But for investors with a 12-month horizon, history is not subtle about what elevated fear has often meant for forward returns. The VIX at 31 is not a warning to hide. It is a signal to get ready.
Company: Cboe Global Markets, Inc. (SYM: CBOE)
Exchange operator that quietly benefits when fear drives options volume.
Cboe is currently trading around $281.12. The company just posted record 2025 net revenue of $2.4 billion and record adjusted diluted EPS of $10.67, helped by strong derivatives activity. If fear stays elevated, you do not have to buy volatility products directly to get exposure to the theme — you can own the exchange operator that collects fees as more traders rush to hedge.
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The Lithium Boom is Heating Up
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2. Disney Around $95: The Contrarian Case — and Why You Should Think Twice
Everybody loved Disney last summer near $125. Almost nobody loves it around $95.
Let's look at what actually happened. The stock is now about 24% below its 52-week high, and the narrative has turned sharply against it. Linear TV continues to weaken. Programming and production costs remain high. And a planned $1 billion OpenAI partnership fell apart just as Josh D'Amaro stepped into the CEO role.
And yet: Wall Street's consensus price target on Disney sits at $134, implying about 42% upside from current levels. Even after the noise, the Street is still basically saying the stock is worth materially more than where it trades today.
Here is the uncomfortable truth about Disney: the bear case and the bull case are both legitimate. The bear says cord-cutting is structural, parks are cyclical, and new leadership introduces execution risk. The bull says Disney still owns one of the most irreplaceable content libraries on earth — and that at roughly $95, you are paying a very different price than investors were willing to pay a year ago. Disney's own first-quarter report showed 5% revenue growth to $26.0 billion, SVOD operating income of $450 million, and record quarterly revenue and operating income in Experiences. The business is not broken. It is being repriced.
The bottom line: Disney is exactly the kind of situation worth watching in a correction. A company with irreplaceable assets, a temporary crisis of execution and confidence, and a price that has moved dramatically from optimism to pessimism in less than a year. That is not a buy signal by itself. But it is the kind of setup where the next 90 days of execution from management will tell you a great deal.
Company: Walt Disney Company (SYM: DIS)
Contrarian media-and-parks franchise with irreplaceable IP and a real leadership test ahead.
Disney is currently trading around $94.87. The market is still giving you a price that sits much closer to the bottom of the 52-week range than the top, even after streaming profitability improved and Experiences delivered record quarterly results. That is exactly why this story has become interesting again.
3. The Jobs Report Lands When Nobody Can React. That's the Setup.
On Friday morning at 8:30 a.m. ET, the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the March jobs report. The stock market will be closed for Good Friday. No stock desk can trade it. No options desk can reprice it. The number will just sit there until the opening bell on Monday.
Here's why that matters. February's report was brutal: 92,000 jobs lost, with unemployment rising to 4.4%. For March, economists are looking for a rebound of about 60,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate is expected to stay at 4.4%. That is better than February — but still weak by the standards of the last few years.
Two very different scenarios emerge. A strong number — well above consensus — sounds like good news. But in this environment it could also push markets to worry about inflation and rates all over again. A weak or negative number would confirm the labor market is deteriorating and raise recession fears. Neither outcome is clean. The wildcard is timing: JOLTS lands Tuesday, and ADP private payrolls lands Wednesday, which means smart money will be trying to position before the market goes dark on Friday.
The bottom line: The next five trading days are unusually consequential. Data Tuesday. Data Wednesday. Then a closed-market Friday jobs report before the April 6 open. If you own positions sensitive to rates or macro expectations, know what you own and why before the week ends. If you do not know your thesis, volatility will choose one for you.
Company: Nordson Corporation (SYM: NDSN)
Cash-generating industrial compounder built for a higher-for-longer world.
Nordson is currently trading around $258.83. In February, the company reported record first-quarter sales of $669 million, record adjusted EPS of $2.37, backlog growth of about 4%, and higher full-year guidance. This is the kind of business that does not need falling rates to work. In a market that is being forced to care about cash flow again, that matters.
American Alternative Assets
The move Washington made in 1934
In 1934, the government executed a legal maneuver that transferred billions in wealth overnight.
Most Americans had no idea it was coming.
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We put together a free report on exactly what this move is, why the timing points to now, and the one step ordinary Americans can take to position themselves before it happens.
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4. The "AI Is Replacing Jobs" Story Is Finally Showing Up in the Data
It used to be a debate.
Now it is a data point.
A Resume.org survey released last fall found that 58% of companies planned layoffs in 2026, and 37% expected to replace some roles with AI by year-end. That is not a forecast from a pundit. That is what hiring decision-makers said they expected to do.
The labor market has already been showing stress. February marked the fourth monthly job loss in nine months, and health care — usually one of the most resilient sectors in the economy — shed 28,000 jobs, though BLS said much of that weakness was tied to strike activity in physician offices. Even with that caveat, the message is the same: automation pressure is no longer theoretical. It is landing in sectors that used to feel protected.
The irony is that this creates a direct investment angle. The companies doing the replacing are not necessarily the ones most retail investors are talking about. They are not just Nvidia or Microsoft. They are the quieter workflow-automation and enterprise-software names helping businesses reduce manual labor in customer service, back-office operations, claims handling, HR, and process management. Those are real budgets tied to real pain points.
The bottom line: When a structural shift starts showing up in payroll data, it usually means adoption is further along than most people think. The companies enabling that automation are growing revenue while the companies they serve are trying to shrink headcount. That is a powerful combination. The names worth watching are not just the AI infrastructure plays Wall Street loves — they are the quieter software companies solving real operating problems for real businesses.
Company: Appian Corporation (SYM: APPN)
Workflow-automation software company helping enterprises cut manual process drag.
Appian is currently trading around $23.72. In February, the company reported cloud subscription revenue of $117.0 million, up 18%, while total subscriptions revenue rose 19% to $162.3 million. It is not a headline AI stock. That is exactly the point. It sits much closer to the real workflow where labor gets replaced and margins get protected.
Before You Go: What a Holiday-Shortened Week Actually Means
The market closes Friday. The jobs report lands Friday. April begins Tuesday.
Seasonally, April has historically been one of the Dow's better months. Stock Trader's Almanac data puts it as the second-best month for the Dow since 1950, with an average gain of about 1.8%. That is a tailwind — not a guarantee, but worth knowing.
The investors who do well in moments like this are not the ones who predicted the correction.
They are the ones who had a plan before the noise started — and are calm enough to execute it when everyone else is reacting.
That is what independent research is for.
Equiscreen
VWAV: The Early Defense Tech Story to Watch Closely
A New Kind of Defense Opportunity is Building a Multi-Domain AI Platform for Modern Warfare—This is Why NASDAQ Small Cap Defense Company VisionWave (VWAV) May Be Worth Watching Early!
As warfare becomes faster, smarter, and more automated, companies enabling these capabilities are moving into the spotlight. VisionWave Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: VWAV) is developing a platform designed to support this shift, combining sensing technologies, AI-driven analytics, and autonomous drones into a unified system.
This approach reflects how modern defense is evolving—toward connected, intelligent networks rather than standalone tools. The battlefield is changing fast—and NASDAQ: VWAV is positioning itself where the next wave of defense spending is expected to flow. The company isn't just building products—it's building a platform designed for how wars are fought today, not how they were fought yesterday.
Beyond technology development, VWAV is actively building pathways to growth. From strategic transactions like its SaverOne collaboration to expansion into global markets and early-stage moves into energy exploration, the company is broadening its reach across multiple high-demand sectors. While still early, its alignment with key defense and infrastructure trends is putting it on more investors' radar.
While larger defense names dominate headlines, NASDAQ: VWAV is quietly aligning with the technologies shaping the future of combat.
Learn How VWAV could be an early-stage story worth watching in the defense tech space
Are there any other stock news stories you're following right now? What sectors of the market are you focusing on in 2026? Hit "reply" to this email and let us know your thoughts!
