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Iran thinks Trump should surrender… The divergence between the economy and the stock market expands again… $1 quadrillion would be enough to send a check for $2.8 million to every man, woman, and child in America. This is set to be the biggest AI IPO in history… And you could claim a stake today…Before the company goes public…Starting with just $500.
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Dear reader, |
“The best option is surrender.” |
Is this President Trump’s latest counsel to the Iranian authorities? |
It is not. It is instead the Iranian authorities’ latest counsel to President Trump. |
In particular, the counsel of Iranian National Security Council spokesman, Ebrahim Rezaei. |
“Starting today,” continued this Rezaei fellow, “the era of restraint is over.” |
Thus the doves of peace remain cooped… and will likely remain cooped for a spell. |
“TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE!” |
Meantime, the president has snarled his teeth at Iran’s latest peace proposal. |
I have just read the response from Iran’s so-called “Representatives.” I don’t like it — TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE! |
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Thank you for your attention to this matter. |
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You are very welcome, Mr. President. |
All the while, Israeli authorities have evidently informed Washington that negotiated settlement with Iran is unlikely. |
Wait, Good News? |
Yet what is this? A positive scrap of needed economic news? |
On Friday, April’s unemployment data came issuing. |
A Dow Jones body of economists had divined the addition of 65,000 non-farm payrolls. |
The actual figure — according to the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics — came in at a boffo 115,000. |
In all… again, according to the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics… the United States economy has posted over 300,000 payrolls within the last two months. |
A Look Behind the Numbers |
Yet if you are a long-suffering reader of this publication, you are aware that statistics are often lovely liars. |
You know they often misinform rather than inform. You know they often propagate more fog than light. |
Let us then attempt to discern these figures in their true aspect. What do we find? |
We find that many fresh positions are part-time positions. Pursuers of full-time positions presently find few opportunities. |
Meantime, the labor force participation rate — the percentage of the population that is either employed or seeking employment — continues to decrease. |
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By 2032, Social Security will be insolvent. |
That 6.2% you've been "contributing" for 30 years? Gone. Paid out to people who retired before you. |
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“Underlying Anxiety in the Labor Market” |
Reports CNN: |
“Since the beginning of the year, employment has actually fallen when you call up people and ask them if they have a job,” KPMG’s Diane Swonk said. |
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“Participation has also fallen and job leavers have fallen. All of that is a sign of underlying anxiety in the labor market.” |
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More: |
The labor force participation rate fell for the fifth consecutive month, inching down to 61.8% from 61.9%. The employment to population ratio, a measure of labor market engagement that includes those who are unemployed and not actively seeking jobs, fell to 59.1% which, excluding the pandemic, is the lowest rate since 2014. |
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The U-6 unemployment rate (an alternative measure of labor underutilization) rose to 8.2%, the highest in five months and two percentage points above where it was in 2019, Swonk said, noting that more workers are having to accept part-time jobs because full-time work isn’t available. |
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“Those who have a job are frozen in place, and those who want a job are frozen out of the labor market,” she said. |
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Is this the sign of a hale and hearty labor market? I am far from convinced that it is. |
The Lowest Consumer Sentiment EVER Recorded |
Meantime, May’s University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is out. |
What did it reveal? |
It revealed the lowest consumer sentiment in recorded annals… stretching to the 1940s… down 3.2% from April… and 7.7% from last May. |
The Consumer Sentiment Index, in fact, comes in 13% beneath its harrowing 2008 low. |
A certain Joanne Hsu is the survey’s director. |
Ms. Hsu claims consumer glumness is propelled by "concerns about high prices both for personal finances as well as buying conditions for major purchases." |
There appears to be justice here. Americans’ perceived financial condition has plunged to the lowest depth since the inky depths of 2009. |
The Stock Market Doesn’t Care |
Yet like raindrops off a windshield… or perhaps like the Titanic through an ice field… the stock market sweeps aside all economic concerns. |
These concerns simply do not register. |
A lengthy and potentially catastrophic energy disruption, escalating inflation, plunging consumer sentiment, a languishing labor market — they count for nothing. |
The Kobeissi Letter: |
The S&P 500 closes at its highest level on record, now up +17.2% since the March 30th bottom. |
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That's +$10 TRILLION in market cap in 29 trading days. |
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While inflation is back and the labor market has weakened, it simply does not matter right now. |
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In fact, the return of inflation has only intensified the scramble for yield and hard assets that can preserve purchasing power… |
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Asset owners are experiencing one of the greatest wealth expansions in modern history while everyone else is being left behind. |
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The Wealth Gap Widens |
And so the vast divergence diverges further yet. |
The owners of stocks and other assets — largely the graying and existing affluent — go forward. |
The non-owners of stocks and other assets — largely the youthful who cannot afford them — go backward. |
As I have asked before: Is it a wonder then that America’s youthful are casting their dispirited eyes to socialism? |
They simply do not believe that “capitalism” serves them. |
Of course it is not actual capitalism that has passed them over. It is a false and distorted capitalism that has passed them over. |
A false and distorted capitalism engineered by the Federal Reserve has passed them over. |
As I have argued before in these very pages: |
It is time to clear capitalism of all charges, and restore its blackened name. |
It is time to haul false capitalism into the dock. |
It is time to haul the Federal Reserve into the dock. |
Regards, |
Brian Maher |
for Freedom Financial News |
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