Stocks Up Again, Nasdaq And S&P Lead, New Record Closes For The Dow, Small-Cap And Mid-Cap IndexesStocks closed higher again yesterday with all of the major indexes in the green. And like the day before, the tech-heavy Nasdaq led the way with an outsized gain of 1.52%, followed by the S&P 500 with 0.79%. And also like the day before, the Dow, small-cap Russell 2000, and mid-cap S&P 400, made new all-time high closes in the process. The day started with a positive statement from Iran where they acknowledged the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), and said they would abide by it, as long as the U.S. does. Seems like a basic thing to acknowledge, but given some earlier denials, and strikes over the weekend, and suggestions they wouldn't attend the next round of talks in Qatar, it was an important declaration. And Iran did send a delegation to Qatar for the next round of talks. Tech and AI-related names continued their rebound after a bout of volatility last week. Sandisk was up 10.9%. Applied Materials was up 4.08% (and that's after the previous day's 10.8%). And Advanced Micro Devices was up 7.68%. In other news, yesterday's Case-Shiller Home Price Index (unadjusted) was up 1.0% m/m, the same as last month's pace. The y/y change was 1.1%, up from last month's 0.8% and views for 0.9%. The FHFA House Price Index was off -0.1% m/m, but was up 2.0% y/y in comparison to last month's 1.7%, albeit just under the consensus for 2.1%. The Chicago PMI report put the index at 56.7, down from last month's 62.7, but above expectations for 55.4. Consumer Confidence came in at 91.2 vs. last month's 90.6, but under estimates for 94.8. And the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey report (or JOLTS for short) showed 7.594 million job openings last month, up from last month's 7.585M, and above the forecast for 7.298M. Today we'll get MBA Mortgage Applications, the PMI Manufacturing Report, the ISM Manufacturing Index, Construction Spending, Weekly Jobless Claims, the Challenger Job-Cut Report, and the ADP Employment Report (the latter of which is often looked at as a barometer of what the Employment Situation report will say a day or two later). Plenty of labor stats today. But the jobs report everybody is really waiting for is Thursday's Employment Situation report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The headline number is expected to show 114,000 new jobs were created in June (124,000 in the private sector and -10,000 in the public sector). That would be a slower pace than May's 172,000 headline, but the private sector would actually be a bit higher than last month's pace of 120K. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.3%. And average hourly earnings are expected to be up 0.3% m/m (same as last month), while the y/y rate ticks up to 3.5% vs. last month's 3.4%. Today's ADP report could foreshadow what tomorrow's BLS report will say. But the ADP report does have a spotty track of doing so. So all eyes will be on Thursday's BLS report (which comes a day earlier than usual since the market is closed on Friday in observance of July 4th Independence Day). With 2 days left, all of the major indexes are in the plus column for the week so far. If all goes well, they'll stay that way, and even expand that margin even more. See you tomorrow, Kevin Matras
Executive Vice President, Zacks Investment Research |