Stocks Mostly Higher Yesterday, Oil Lower, Pause In U.S.-Iran Fighting Giving Hope That A Longer Cessation Of Hostilities Could UnfoldStocks closed mostly higher yesterday, but off of their best levels of the day, which came shortly after the open. Crude oil ended sharply lower, dropping roughly -8%. After 13 days of U.S. strikes against Iran, that was paused over the weekend. Iran then signaled it too would pause their retaliatory strikes for as long as the U.S. does, effectively creating a de facto ceasefire. In the meantime, indirect negotiations with Iran are taking place. In other news, yesterday's Durable Goods Orders report showed new orders rising 0.3% m/m vs. last month's -4.0% and views for 1.7%. Ex-Transportation it was at 0.6% vs. last month's 1.8% and estimates for 1.0%. And Core Capital Goods were up 0.9% vs. last month's 1.9% and forecast for 0.9%. And the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey showed the General Activity Index increased to 1.3 vs. 0.0, with the Production Index coming in at 10.1 vs. last month's 4.1. Today we'll get the International Trade in Goods report, Retail and Wholesale Inventories, the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, the FHFA House Price Index, the Case-Shiller Home Price Index, and Consumer Confidence. And day one of the 2-day FOMC Meeting begins today as well. That means tomorrow (Wednesday), at the conclusion of their 2-day meeting, we'll get the FOMC Announcement. The consensus is for the Fed to keep rates unchanged with a 63.7% likelihood. But that also means a 36.3% chance of a quarter-point raise. Either way, the market will be paying close attention to the language used in the announcement, not to mention the Fed Chair Press Conference that will follow. Investors will then turn their attention to Thursday's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index (the Fed's preferred inflation gauge). While inflation has come in better than expected recently (albeit higher on the headline rate), the continuing rise in oil prices (sans a Middle East deal) means future reports are likely to see headline inflation tick up.
Earnings season continues. It's been a stellar start to earnings season so far. We'll hear from as many as 163 companies in queue to report today (925 total between today and the end of the week). The marquee names for today include Coca-Cola, Boeing, and Corning before the open, along with Visa, NXP Semiconductors, and Bloom Energy after the close. However, the headliners the market is really waiting for come on Wednesday and Thursday with Microsoft and Meta reporting after the close tomorrow (7/29), followed by Apple and Amazon after the close on 7/30. But plenty of widely held names on deck for today first. See you tomorrow, Kevin Matras
Executive Vice President, Zacks Investment Research |