How much of your portfolio depends on a 21-mile strait between Iran and Oman? |
Last week, a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran flickered to life. |
By Friday, Iran's Speaker of Parliament declared two of the agreed conditions unmet: a ceasefire in Lebanon and the release of Tehran's frozen assets. |
Two U.S. Navy destroyers pushed through the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday for the first time since the war began, and Vice President Vance sat down with Iranian officials in Islamabad for 21 hours of face-to-face talks, the highest-level U.S.-Iran engagement since 1979. |
They failed. |
Vice President Vance left Pakistan on Sunday morning without a deal. |
Hours later, President Trump posted on Truth Social: "Effective immediately, the United States Navy will begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz." |
He ordered the Navy to interdict every vessel in international waters that has paid a toll to Iran. |
Iran's Revolutionary Guard responded within hours, declaring the strait open for civilian vessels while warning that military ships "will be dealt with severely." |
The U.S. and Iran now both claim authority over the same 21-mile corridor. Both have warships in the water. Neither is backing down. |
The blockade will dominate tomorrow's headlines. What Iran's parliament is doing will shape what you pay at the pump, what your groceries cost, and what your savings are worth when you retire. |
Iran's Parliament fast-tracked legislation to formalize Tehran's permanent management of the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranian parliament's Security Commission approved a plan to impose tolls on all vessels, enforce "Iran's sovereign role," and prohibit passage for U.S. and Israeli ships. |
The Iranian navy announced the Strait would "never return to its former state" and vowed to impose a "new Gulf order." |
20% of the world's energy supply (oil, petrochemicals, ammonia, urea, sulphur, helium) passes through that corridor. That's narrower than the distance most Americans commute to work. |
And both countries just told the world the rules have changed, but in opposite directions. |
Wall Street Is Pricing In a Resolution. Iran Is Building a Tollbooth. |
The consensus view is that Iran is playing poker with Hormuz, using it as a card to extract concessions during ceasefire talks, then fold. Most of Wall Street is pricing in a resolution within months. |
I think that view is missing something critical. |
American and Israeli strikes destroyed Iran’s military infrastructure, assassinated their Supreme Leader, and dismantled much of the regime's proxy network. |
The message is clear: We can reach you anywhere. |
But Tehran heard something different. Tehran heard: Your old deterrence model failed to stop the most devastating campaign against this regime in its history. |
So Iran is building a new pillar of deterrence. An economic one. |
The foundation is the Strait of Hormuz. |
Tehran isn't closing the Strait. A full closure would invite overwhelming international pressure. Instead, Iran is constructing a permissioned gatekeeper system. The strait stays open, but only for countries that negotiate passage directly with Tehran on Iran's terms. |
India, China, Russia, Iraq, and several Southeast Asian nations have already secured safe passage by engaging diplomatically with Iran. |
Iran's parliament codified the toll system into law on March 30. And the IRGC statement, distinguishing between civilian and military ships, is the gatekeeper system operating in plain sight, even as the U.S. announces a blockade to counter it. |
Every deal struck is another brick in a structure that looks less like a bargaining chip and more like permanent infrastructure. |
Robert Pape at the University of Chicago wrote in the New York Times that Iran is emerging as a fourth center of global power, one that derives its influence not from economic or military scale, but from control over the most important energy chokepoint in the global economy. |
France's Macron said publicly last week that reopening the Strait by force is "unrealistic" and can only happen in coordination with Iran. Whether you agree with him or not, a major NATO ally saying it out loud tells you how the rest of the world is reading this situation. |
$1 Per Barrel, Paid in Bitcoin |
Iran is sanctioned out of the Western financial system. It can't receive dollars. So when countries pay for passage through Hormuz, what currency do you think they're using? |
Not dollars, not euros, and nothing that touches SWIFT. |
Lloyd's List Intelligence confirmed that at least two vessels paid Iran fees in Chinese yuan, routed through China's CIPS network, entirely outside Western banking infrastructure. |
Then last week, the Financial Times reported that Iran is charging $1 per barrel of oil for passage, payable in cryptocurrency. A spokesperson for Iran's oil exporters union confirmed that bitcoin is accepted. |
Iran's parliamentary legislation authorizing the toll system specifically references rials, yuan, and "digital currencies." |
The country controlling 20% of the world's energy supply just built a payment system that runs on yuan via China's banking network and bitcoin via no one's banking network. |
Every toll collected outside the dollar is another crack in the foundation of the reserve currency system. |
The world is slowly, then suddenly, moving away from the dollar as the sole reserve currency. The freezing of Russian reserves in 2022 was the first shot. The BRICS+ energy sovereignty agreements were the second. Iran's formalization of Hormuz control is the third. |
In March 2022, one of the most respected institutional research firms in the world wrote about the "Triple Axis" of China, Russia, and Iran, bound by a common cause of reducing their dependence on the dollar and challenging the incumbent international order. |
They said these motivations would only grow with time. |
Central banks bought record amounts of gold last year. Gold is now a vote of no confidence in the current order. |
Gasoline Up 40% Before the Blockade |
One year after "Liberation Day" tariffs, the U.S. economy is caught in a vise. Tariff costs, trade-policy chaos, and a full-blown energy supply shock from the Gulf are compounding into stagflation. |
Trump just announced that any country assisting Iran, including China, will face a 50% tariff. |
Jet fuel prices are up 70% year-to-date. Gasoline up 30–40%. Wholesale gas up at least 60%. |
The latest CPI report, the first since the war began, showed inflation climbing to 3.3%, with the monthly index surging 0.9%, the steepest rise since mid-2022. |
Manufacturing employment has fallen by over 100,000 since early last year. Real private fixed investment in manufacturing structures dropped 16% between Q3 2024 and Q4 2025. |
The federal deficit is on track to exceed 6% of GDP this year. The 10-year/10-year forward Treasury yield just hit a two-decade high. |
The ISM Prices Paid Index is screaming higher. |
The gap between federal revenues and outlays is widening. And all of this was the forecast before the proposed 40%-plus increase in defense spending. |
Growing up, my parents were immigrants who came here with nothing. I watched them negotiate every bill, stretch every dollar until it screamed. I screamed too, embarrassed by the off-brand jeans and sneakers they bought me. |
I know what it looks like when purchasing power vanishes, and nobody in charge admits it's happening. I'm watching it happen again, and the numbers above prove it. |
Gold closed Friday near $4,780 per ounce, heading for a third straight weekly gain. The ratio of gold to the U.S. CPI broke out from a 45-year downtrend line back in September 2024. |
Silver miners are outperforming nearly every broad stock market index on the planet. |
The purchasing power of every dollar you hold is being eaten alive. |
The Playbook |
You position for the world that's emerging. |
Gold is your anchor. |
When currencies are weaponized, when allies redirect each other's funds, when the world's most important energy chokepoint gets blockaded by both sides simultaneously, gold is where capital flows. |
One of the most respected institutional portfolios I track holds over 26% in gold and silver. |
Bitcoin is the digital version of the same thesis. |
Iran is collecting tolls in bitcoin specifically because no government can freeze it and no bank can block it. That's a sovereign nation choosing bitcoin as a settlement layer at the most strategically important waterway on earth because the dollar-based system locked them out. |
Bitcoin is down 42% from its October high near $126,000, trading around $71,000 today. You're buying the use case, not the hype. |
Oil and gas exposure is essential. |
Even during the ceasefire, the strait was still throttled. Now the U.S. is blockading it, and Iran is tolling it. Permanent risk premium. Companies producing oil and gas in stable jurisdictions are printing cash, the kind of boring, reliable cash that lets you sleep at night. |
Critical minerals are the next frontier. |
A single F-15E Strike Eagle was shot down over Iran over a week ago. It incinerated 0.05% of the entire global supply of rhenium, a critical mineral used in jet engine turbine blades. The total global supply of rhenium fits in two pickup trucks. |
Western defense procurement runs on "just-in-time" supply chains designed for peacetime. We are no longer in peacetime. |
Cash is a position, not a punishment. |
When markets whipsaw on every headline out of the Gulf, the investor with cash buys the dip. The one who's fully invested is along for the ride. I haven’t spoken much about my cash positions, but I will in a future essay. |
For now, though, I’ve been accumulating my cash position, and you may consider doing so as well. |
Everything you just read, the analysis, the framework, the playbook, is yours. Free. |
Premium Members get the execution: the specific names, the buy-under prices, and the real-time alerts when it's time to move. |
This week, we locked in a 42% gain on a mining position we entered months ago, selling into an acquisition that validated the thesis. |
That's the kind of timing that comes from watching these markets every single day. |
Across 28 positions since launch, the Premium portfolio is running a 75% win rate. Four positions have doubled, and we've sold the original stake on each one, riding the rest on house money with gains between 88% and 140%+. |
The portfolio has exposure to gold miners, silver, critical minerals, energy, and bitcoin, the exact categories this essay just laid out for you. |
If you've read this far and you're thinking about repositioning, the specific names and entry points are in the Premium Section below. |
Your 30-Minute Audit |
One thing you can do this week that shouldn’t take you more than 30 minutes. |
Audit your portfolio for Hormuz exposure. |
Sit down and ask yourself… If the Strait of Hormuz operates under contested authority for the next five years, with Iran tolling one side and the U.S. Navy blockading the other, how does my portfolio perform? |
If you're overweight U.S. growth stocks and underweight commodities, gold, and energy, you have a problem. |
If you own zero gold, zero silver, and zero exposure to critical minerals, you have a bigger one. |
The world isn't going back to the way it was six weeks ago. |
The Islamabad talks were supposed to be the off-ramp. They weren't. And within hours, a U.S. naval blockade replaced a ceasefire negotiation. That's the direction of travel. |
The investors who thrive in what comes next won't be the ones who predicted every headline. They'll be the ones who understood the structure of what's changing and positioned accordingly. |
Gold. Bitcoin. Energy. Critical minerals. Cash on the sidelines ready to deploy. |
That's the playbook. That's how you protect what you've built and grow it in the chaos ahead. |
The strait is 21 miles wide. Your portfolio either accounts for that or it doesn't. |
— Double D |
P.S. Here’s a partial screenshot of the Moonshot Minute Portfolio. I’ve blurred out the tickers since that information is only for Premium Members, but you can see how we’ve done so far: |
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🔓 Premium Content Begins Here 🔒 |
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In today's Premium Section, an update on our grid buildout positions and how we’re playing multiple triple and double-digit winners, as well as updated guidance and a buy for a ticker we believe is set to outperform over the next 12 months. |
I hope you’ve been paying attention because many of our picks are currently beating the S&P by up to 4-to-1 over the last 12 months. |
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I don’t. |
I built my wealth the old-fashioned way, not by selling subscriptions. |
That’s why I priced this at $25/month, or $250/year. |
Not because it’s low quality, but because I don’t need to charge the typical prices other newsletters charge. |
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