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Market Delta: Monday June 15, Pre-Market
S&P 500 Fri close 7,431 +0.50% · Dow 51,202 +0.70% · Russell 2,944 +0.79%
SpaceX (SPCX) Fri close ~$161 +19% from $135 IPO · MSCI inclusion in progress
WTI crude overnight ~$80 -5% on Iran deal · Gold $4,339 +2.8%
10Y yield 4.42% ↓ · VIX 17.68 · Bitcoin $65,695 +2.1%
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The weekend started with a question and ended with an answer. Would the Iran deal land before Monday's opening bell? It did. The framework agreement reopened the Strait of Hormuz, extended the ceasefire for 60 days, and sent oil tumbling 5% to $80 a barrel before most Americans finished their Sunday dinner. This morning, crude is at its lowest level since early March. Gold is above $4,300. The 10-year yield is sliding toward 4.40%. And SpaceX is about to trade its second week as a public company with index funds still buying every share they can find. Monday is not short on things to watch. |
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The Strait Reopens. What Changes for Your Wallet. |
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The deal itself is straightforward on paper. The Strait of Hormuz reopens to commercial traffic by week's end. The US naval blockade lifts immediately. Iran's ceasefire extends 60 days while nuclear negotiations continue. The signing ceremony is Friday in Switzerland. The market did not wait for the ceremony - WTI crude dropped 5% to roughly $80 a barrel Sunday night, touching its lowest price since the first week of March, back before the Strait closure sent oil above $100. |
What does $80 oil mean at your kitchen table? Gasoline follows crude with a two-to-three-week lag. If oil holds near $80 through the end of June, you should see pump prices drop 20 to 30 cents a gallon by early July - right when summer driving season peaks. Heating oil gets the same tailwind heading into fall. And every trucking company, airline, and food distributor that has been eating higher fuel costs since March gets margin relief, which eventually flows into the price of the eggs and bread sitting in your refrigerator. The inflation math just shifted. Not permanently - the nuclear talks could collapse in August - but enough to matter for the next 60 days. |
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SpaceX Week 2 - The Empire Needs a Supply Chain |
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SpaceX closed its first trading day at $161 - a 19% pop above the $135 IPO price. That is strong but not euphoric. Saudi Aramco popped 10% on day one. Alibaba gained 38%. A 19% first-day gain on a $75 billion offering says institutional demand was real but not panic-driven. Now comes the harder question: what happens when the forced MSCI index buying finishes and discretionary buyers have to decide whether $161 is cheap or expensive for a company earning $18 billion in revenue at a $1.75 trillion valuation? |
The answer partly depends on the supply chain beneath the rocket. SpaceX does not build everything in-house. Starlink's more than 10,000 satellites need components. The Starship program needs materials and systems from dozens of smaller suppliers. The Musk empire - Tesla, SpaceX, xAI - runs on a web of companies that most retail investors have never heard of. One of them sits at the center of everything Musk builds, and Wall Street has not caught up yet. |
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From our partner |
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There's one small company Elon Musk can't operate without. |
Without it, his $1.77 trillion empire goes dark. |
Wall Street hasn't noticed it yet. But it won't stay that way for long. |
Here's the full story. |
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The IPO Door Is Open. Who Walks Through Next? |
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SpaceX just proved that the IPO market is wide open for companies with real revenue and a clear story. The $75 billion raise was the largest in history, and the 19% first-day pop tells underwriters that demand is there for the right deal. That opens a lane for a wave of smaller companies that have been waiting in the pipeline. The smart home sector in particular has been quietly building toward its public-market moment - 92% of window shades worldwide are still operated by hand, and the companies automating that last analog surface in the house are sitting on a market that barely exists on Wall Street yet. |
One company in that space has already put its products on shelves at retailers you walk past every week. The question for early-stage investors is always the same: do you wait for the IPO and pay the premium, or do you get in before the ticker goes live? The SpaceX IPO showed what happens when you are too late - the stock opened 11% above the offering price and never looked back. |
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From our partner |
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| Pre-IPO · Reg A+ ·Nasdaq $RYSS Reserved · $2.50/share |
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INVESTOR BRIEFING
SpaceX never let you in early. RYSE just did.
SpaceX is worth over $1 Trillion It has been private the entire way up. Retail investors watched from the outside — no entry point, no upside, no seat at the table.
This time, the door is open. But not for long.
RYSE is the AI-powered smart home company solving the one problem nobody else touched: 92% of window shades worldwide are still operated by hand. Their patented retrofit system changes that — installs in 10 minutes, works with Alexa, Google, and Apple HomeKit, and is already on shelves at Best Buy, Home Depot, and Lowe's.
$15M+ in lifetime revenue. 80,000+ devices sold. 10 patents granted. A Nasdaq listing under $RYSS is the stated next step.
The pre-IPO share price opened at $0.71. It's $2.50 today — up 252% before a single share trades publicly. Shark Tank’s Daymond John invested. So did Anthony Lacavera, who sold Wind Mobile for $1.16 billion. 4,000+ investors are already on the cap table.
Elon Musk has publicly stated that smart home AI is the next frontier — homes that think, adjust, and automate themselves. RYSE is building exactly that infrastructure, starting with the largest untouched surface in every building: the windows. |
| "The investors who missed Nest, Ring, and SpaceX's early rounds all had one thing in common: they waited to see how it played out." |
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| ~$1,000 minimum · IRA eligible · 7-day cancellation · Bonus shares available |
$2,500 +10% bonus Eff. price $2.27 |
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$5,000 +15% bonus Eff. price $2.17 |
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$10,000 +20% bonus Eff. price $2.08 |
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$25,000+ Up to +50% bonus Eff. price $1.67 |
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Important disclosures. This is a paid advertisement for RYSE Inc. made pursuant to a Regulation A+ offering and involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. The valuation is set by the Company; there is currently no public market for the Company's Common Stock. Nasdaq ticker "$RYSS" has been reserved by RYSE; any potential listing is subject to future regulatory approval and market conditions. Past share-price appreciation does not guarantee future returns. SEC qualification does not constitute SEC approval of the merits.
RYSE Inc., 96 Spadina Avenue, Suite 500, Toronto, ON M5V 2J6, Canada |
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🔒 OBBBA Rule Watch: Tax Rule of the Day
Roth Conversion Ladder Strategy
A Roth conversion ladder lets you move money from a traditional IRA or 401(k) into a Roth IRA in annual tranches, paying ordinary income tax on each conversion but locking in tax-free growth and withdrawals afterward. The key is doing it during low-income years - typically the gap between retirement and age 73 when RMDs begin. Each converted tranche has its own five-year holding period before it can be withdrawn penalty-free if you are under 59½. The strategy works best when your current bracket is lower than the bracket you expect to be in once Social Security, pensions, and RMDs stack up. With the current TCJA brackets set to remain permanent, the math favors converting sooner rather than waiting for a bracket change that may not come.
Why it matters: If you are between 55 and 72 with a traditional IRA balance above $500,000, every year you delay converting is a year you pay taxes at a potentially higher rate when RMDs force withdrawals.
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Peace Deal Does Not Mean Peace Dividend |
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The Iran deal is good news for oil prices. It is not good news for defense contractors - wait, actually it might be. Here is the counterintuitive math. The US defense budget for fiscal 2027 is already set at $886 billion. Europe's defense spending commitments through NATO's new 3% GDP target are locked in through 2030. Japan, South Korea, Australia, and India are all running the largest defense budgets in their history. A ceasefire with Iran does not reverse any of that. The money is already appropriated, the contracts are already signed, and the factories are already running. |
What changes is where the smart money looks inside the defense sector. The old playbook said buy Lockheed, Raytheon, and Northrop. The new playbook says the winners are the companies building what actually works on a modern battlefield - cheap drones that destroy billion-dollar platforms, electronic warfare systems, space-based assets, and the solid rocket motors that nobody else can make fast enough. Most retail investors are still holding the legacy names. A handful of analysts are quietly repositioning around something different. |
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From our partner |
“In the midst of chaos, there is also opportunity.” - Sun Tzu |
For most of the post–Cold War era, defense was a slow, predictable corner of the market. |
That framework has broken. |
Ukraine. The Middle East. The Indo-Pacific. Every year, the list of flashpoints grows longer — and the defense budgets of the United States, Europe, and Asia have broken decades of underinvestment. |
But the money is flowing differently this time. |
The winners of the next decade will not look like the winners of the last one. |
Cheap drones are destroying billion-dollar platforms. Software is becoming as important as steel. Space is now a contested domain. And the factories that make solid rocket motors, naval reactors, and electronic warfare systems have become strategic national assets. |
Most investors are still buying the old names. |
A handful are quietly positioning around something different. |
Inside The War Stocks briefing, you’ll discover: |
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Sign up for the Unpopular Stocks newsletter and get The War Stocks briefing instantly. |
Subscribe to Download the Report |
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The Rate Trade Nobody Is Talking About |
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The 10-year yield dropped to 4.42% this morning. That is the lowest close in nearly a month, and it happened because the Iran deal changes the inflation arithmetic. Lower oil means lower transportation costs, which means lower food prices, which means the Fed has less reason to keep rates elevated. If the ceasefire holds and nuclear talks proceed through the summer, the bond market is going to start pricing in a rate cut by September. That is the window. If you have been sitting in a money market fund earning 4.8% and waiting for the "right time" to lock in a longer-term CD, the right time is measured in weeks now - not months. Walk into your credit union this week and ask what they are offering on a 2-year or 3-year CD. The number will be lower next month if the Iran deal holds. |
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Trade Cheat Sheet: Monday June 15
| TICKER |
PRICE |
BIAS |
STOP / LEVEL |
| USO |
~$72 |
🔴 Bearish |
Close above $85 oil invalidates |
| SPCX |
~$161 |
🟢 Bullish w/ caution |
Below $145 on volume = concern |
| ITB |
~$112 |
🟢 Bullish |
Below $105 on rising yields |
| ITA |
~$160 |
🟢 Bullish long-term |
Buy dip to $155-$158; stop $150 |
| TLT |
~$91 |
🟢 Bullish |
10Y above 4.60% reverses trade |
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