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![]() If you’ve been trading long enough, you know that markets never move in a straight line. Even in a strong bullish trend, you’ll get periods of selling and profit-taking. And when the market gives you two or more consecutive down days — especially after a recent run higher — you can use that to your advantage. This is where a bullish fade trade comes in. It’s one of my favorite short-term strategies because it lets you take a contrarian position when the crowd is leaning the wrong way. Why the Reversion Edge Works Markets have a natural tendency to revert to the mean. If you strip away all the daily noise and just look at the long-term trend, you’ll see a steady upward bias — but not without frequent pullbacks along the way. After a couple of strong down days, especially in a stock that’s been in an overall bullish trend, you often get a sharp snapback. That’s because sellers start to exhaust themselves and buyers step back in to scoop up shares at a perceived discount. I like to target this edge overnight — buying late in the session after two or three down days and selling the next morning on a gap up. In fact, historical data shows that most market gains occur overnight, not during the regular session. From 1993 to today, buying the close and selling the next open has been one of the most consistent edges you can capture. During the day, gains tend to be far more muted or even negative. How I Find the Best Setups First, I use a scanner to identify strong stocks that have fallen two or more days in a row. The goal is to catch high-quality names that are temporarily oversold — not broken stocks in clear downtrends. For example, I showed recent trades in Google parent Alphabet (GOOG; GOOGL) and American Express (AXP) where this exact pattern played out. You buy late on the second or third day down and position for an overnight gap. GE (GE) is another example. After two days down, it snapped higher the next morning — a textbook fade trade. It’s important to avoid news-driven names or stocks that are breaking down structurally. I want clean patterns in strong stocks that are pulling back in an orderly fashion. When you get that setup, the odds of a mean-reverting bounce go way up. Bottom line — when the market gives you two straight down days, don’t just follow the crowd lower. Look for those high-quality stocks poised for a bounce and take the other side of the trade. I’ll walk you through even more scanner tips and pattern recognition in future sessions. So stay tuned for that, and be sure to tune in at 10 a.m. ET on Monday for the biggest edition of “Opening Playbook” yet… Nate and I will be joined by Roger Scott, Kane Shieh and Lance Ippolito for an action-packed session covering our biggest summer blockbuster market predictions and projections, and our No. 1 stock picks! Join the fun here! Will Fed Chair Powell Strengthen or Squash the Market's Recovery on Wednesday? At the 2025 Summer Forecast on Monday, Roger will share his predictions on the Fed Meeting and how to position for any outcome. ![]() ![]() Want to get a link to TradingPub content, trade ideas, real-time market analysis and educational tidbits? We have you covered! Telegram is an entirely free messaging app and getting access is as easy as 1… 2… 3… 1. Download Telegram on your mobile device (Before you can add Telegram to your desktop computer, you must download the application on your phone and create your account: To download to your iPhone, click here. To download to your Android device, click here. After the download is complete, please create an account. NOTE: You can manage your privacy settings by clicking “Settings,” and then “Privacy & Security.” 2. Download Telegram on your desktop: Once you’ve downloaded Telegram onto your mobile device and created your personal account, you can download it onto your desktop computer. To download onto your PC, click here. To download onto your MacOS, click here. 3. Then add our channels by clicking these links!
See you there! |
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