Why NVIDIA Went Down After Beating Everything

The AI Boom Just Exposed Its Weakest Link  ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌

December 22nd, 2025   Donald Doge Editorial Note: The two recommendations below are up since we first recommended them and they continue to be in buy range. Below is the essay first published on November 21 with minor edits. Last month, NVIDIA delivered record-shattering results: $57 billion in quarterly revenue—up 62% year-over-year—with $51.2 billion coming from data centers alone. Q4 guidance? Another $65 billion. This was the first clear sign that, if there is an AI bubble, it ain't poppin' anytime soon. But here's the part most missed. The World Economic Forum noted earlier this month that "investors [are] increasingly pricing in geopolitical risk and long-term supply security." That single line explains everything we witnessed yesterday: even with historic results, NVIDIA closed down, and so did the broader market. Not because the numbers disappointed or even that AI demand is slowing. But because investors are starting to understand the truth I've been discussing in these Moonshot Minute pages since early October: The AI revolution is running into the physical world. And the physical world isn't ready. Compute is scaling. Power demand is scaling. Data centers are scaling. But the copper, rare earths, magnets, transmission capacity, and material supply chains required to fuel that scale… are constrained. Which brings me to why I'm resurfacing the essay below. Two of my recommendations from October — both down slightly by 3.5% off their original entry levels — now sit at the exact inflection point NVIDIA's earnings just exposed. I believe the market finally sees the structural tension my team and I identified over a month ago. Demand is going vertical. Supply is not. That is the setup you want. That is the moment most people miss. With that, here's the essay exactly as I wrote it, and today, after Nvidia's earnings show that the AI build-out isn't slowing down anytime soon, it hits even harder. It's hard to imagine our country grinding to a halt, but it's happened before. In 1973, the United States learned what dependence feels like. When OPEC cut off oil exports, gas lines stretched for miles. Prices quadrupled. Economies convulsed. Families kept jerry cans of gasoline in their garages, terrified they wouldn't make it to work. People waited hours for a few gallons. That moment changed everything. We vowed never again to let a single foreign power hold our energy supply hostage. Half a century later, we've built a new empire of technology—AI servers, electric cars, drones, and data centers humming with invisible energy. But the very technologies we built to free ourselves from oil now depend on new metals we can't produce. This time, the lifeblood of the modern world isn't crude; it's hidden in the ground, in trace amounts of rock. Dysprosium. Terbium. Neodymium. Praseodymium. Together, they form the elements that make magnets powerful, motors efficient, and machines intelligent. Every jet fighter, every smartphone vibration, every data center depends on them. We worked hard to free ourselves from the dependence on oil barons, but… Now we depend on metallurgists in Beijing because: China controls 98% of the global supply of heavy rare earths. That's not a typo. It's a near-monopoly on the materials that make the modern world move. One prominent research group recently called this "the gravest single point of failure in Western industrial economies since the 1973 OPEC embargo." The numbers are staggering. A single F-35 jet requires 920 pounds of rare earths. A single offshore wind turbine, more than 7,000 pounds. Even a smartphone holds nearly a dozen of these elements, and each one is mined, refined, and magnetized thousands of miles away. If that chain breaks, production lines from Detroit to Dallas to Silicon Valley would freeze overnight. We've built our entire society and future on metals we no longer control. We're repeating 1973 all over again. And while it's an entirely different resource, it's the same mistake. This time, though, when this dependency breaks, it won't be oil that stops flowing. It'll be everything. The Hidden Backbone of Modern Power Rare earths don't generate electricity or burn like fuel, but they sit at the center of every system that does. They're inside every motor, every current, every pulse of power that moves the modern world. You can't see them, but you'd notice instantly if they vanished. They turn silent copper coils into roaring jet engines. They make electric motors small enough to fit in your palm yet strong enough to launch a car. They keep data centers cool, medical scanners precise, and missile guidance systems stable. They are everywhere and yet nowhere near us because these hard-to-pronounce minerals are all sourced from one place: China. 🚀 Get Moonshot Alerts Instantly Markets move in minutes. Your inbox can't keep up. Join the Moonshot VIP Text Service and get real-time alerts, portfolio updates, and first-move intelligence directly to your phone. Be first to know. Anywhere. 👉 [Join the Text List →] The Great American Rebuild But that's changing… For decades, mining was treated like a relic, something the old world did. But the new world can't exist without it. After years of outsourcing (mainly to China), the United States is finally waking up to a truth it can't code its way around: every digital future needs a physical foundation. Silicon Valley runs on metals, not miracles. Across the country, a quiet reindustrialization has begun. The Department of Defense is funding projects once dismissed as too dirty or too difficult. Engineers are breaking ground on processing plants designed to separate the very rare earths we once shipped overseas for refinement. States that built their economies on oil are now competing to refine critical minerals. It's the first real buildout of domestic capacity in half a century. Walk through one of these new facilities and it feels like history running in reverse. Conveyor belts hum where silence once hung. Sparks fly as furnaces test their first batches of ore. The smell of metal, the heat, the noise—it's all back. Only this time, it's strategic. The same rare earths that power smartphones now power sovereignty. For the first time since the Cold War, the race to secure resources is being fought not in ideology, but in infrastructure. We are rebuilding the physical backbone of independence, one refinery, one magnet, one supply chain at a time. Federal momentum is finally visible in steel and concrete. The Department of Defense has committed over $400 million to domestic rare-earth and magnet production. The Defense Production Act and Inflation Reduction Act have unleashed billions more for critical-mineral infrastructure. In Louisiana and Texas, new refineries are rising beside old petrochemical plants. In Kentucky and West Virginia, shuttered coal sites are being retooled to extract and refine minerals once discarded as waste. Walk through one of these facilities and you see a new kind of workforce: engineers in flame-resistant jackets, cranes lifting magnet furnaces built in Ohio, workers sweeping red dust from floors. Less than five years ago, the U.S. produced zero tons of refined rare earths. Within a year, it's expected to produce enough to supply every fighter jet the military can build. The Investment Logic Every industrial pivot starts as policy and ends as profit. What begins as national security spending eventually becomes the backbone of a new market cycle. You can see the pattern forming. The last decade rewarded software. The next one will reward sovereignty—companies that mine, refine, or power the physical systems of independence. When governments start paying attention to ore and magnets instead of algorithms, it's a signal, and you need to pay attention. The logic is simple: Policy tailwind: The U.S. government is now funding mineral refineries, defense materials, and domestic energy infrastructure. For investors, that's a guaranteed buyer. Structural tailwind: Nearly nine in ten American manufacturers now cite supply-chain resilience as a capital priority, which is a massive reversal of the offshoring era. Economic tailwind: EV production surpassed twenty million units worldwide this year, nearly one in five new cars sold, each packed with more than 200 kilograms of metals, about five times the material content of a gas car. Meanwhile, roughly 500 to 700 hyperscale data centers are being built each year, each consuming enough electricity to power a city of 100,000 people, turning the data-center buildout into a new industrial sector of its own. Together they form a new kind of demand: mineral hunger on a planetary scale. Psychological tailwind: Moonshot Minute Premium Members have already watched one of these plays soar more than 80% in just weeks. The theme has moved from obscure to obvious, and we're just getting started. Recent policy spending confirms the shift. The Defense Production Act is funding new critical-mineral projects from Alaska to Texas. At the same time, the Department of Energy's loan office holds more than $200 billion in lending authority for domestic resource infrastructure. The index tracking these critical-mineral plays has risen more than 200% in less than a year. Proof that capital is already rotating into the physical world. What was once a niche corner of the market is now a movement of national scale. The rebuild has begun, and the early money is already at work. 🚀 Get Moonshot Alerts Instantly Markets move in minutes. Your inbox can't keep up. Join the Moonshot VIP Text Service and get real-time alerts, portfolio updates, and first-move intelligence directly to your phone. Be first to know. Anywhere. 👉 [Join the Text List →] What We're Doing Next Every era has its inflection point—the moment when quiet policy shifts turn into unstoppable markets. We're standing in one now. The last time the U.S. rebuilt its industrial base, it created oil giants, defense titans, and the semiconductor empire that defined the 20th century. This rebuild will do the same for critical minerals and magnetic infrastructure. A few companies are already leading it. Their facilities are under construction. Their contracts are signed. Their advantage is time. The next essay will take you inside one of them, a project hidden in plain sight that could anchor America's magnet independence for decades. It's the missing link between rock and refinement, between dependence and control. We've waited half a century for this kind of project. And it's finally being built right here in the United States. And if you're not already a Premium Member, you should consider it now before you put this off and forget all about it, because I'm only sharing the ticker symbol and company name with Premium Members. And you don't want to miss this next one because this rare earth theme has already given Premium Members 60%-80% gains in just weeks. Listen to some of the feedback we've received: Amazing! Moonshot is hands down the best $150 decision I have ever made. Up 64% on TICKER REDACTED (so far). Can't thank you enough for your service, advice, recommendations, insight, and every other positive accolade in the dictionary. Very respectfully and gratefully, CK I'm up 71% in 6 weeks would you recommend adding to this bucket if capital allows? MS Hello Double D, As it happened, I already owned some TICKER REDACTED shares when you recommended the stock. Upon your recommendation, I bought more. All told, I'm up over 70% in a month or two. I greatly appreciate the detailed discussion you and your team provide for your recommendations. Thank you. A happy subscriber, PK I finally got some liquidity I could use and bought the stock as well as March 2026 calls yesterday morning (October 2nd) when it was at $17.80. That is easily the best-timed investment/trade I've ever made, and I have your team's perpetual hard work and research to thank for it. Thanks again for all the hard work. You and your team push out a lot of solid research, and the effort doesn't go unnoticed. It is greatly appreciated, MD I love when we get this type of feedback. I can't always guarantee all of our recommendations will perform like this one has (no one can), but I can guarantee the same level of research and analysis goes into every one. And the next one you're going to hear about, if you're a Premium Member, has me just as excited. More coming soon, Double D 🔓 Premium Content Begins Here 🔒 In today's Premium Section, you'll find TWO recommendations we're putting our money in during this next, and explosive, stage of the commodity supercycle. I hope you've been paying attention because many of our picks are currently beating the S&P by up to 4-to-1 this year. Most financial newsletters charge $500, $1,000, even $5,000 per year. Why? Because they know they can. I don't. I built my wealth the old-fashioned way, not by selling subscriptions. That's why I priced this at $25/month, or $250/year. Not because it's low quality, but because I don't need to charge the typical prices other newsletters charge. 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