What If 2026 Becomes the Year of the Peace Dividend? VIEW IN BROWSER What if 2026 becomes the year the world finally breathes a collective sigh of relief? After years of market anxiety driven by war, instability and constant geopolitical tension, imagine a stretch of time where the headlines begin to feel... different. Not perfect. Just calmer. A grinding war edges toward resolution. Long-standing pressure points begin to loosen. Investors wake up one morning and realize they are no longer bracing for the next shock. They are starting to expect things to improve. That kind of shift is not just economic. It is psychological. And as I’ll explain in a moment, it also matters for markets. In last Thursday’s Market 360, I walked you through the stunning developments in Venezuela and why they mattered for markets. What stood out most was not just the event itself, but how quickly a long-frozen situation suddenly moved. One moment, investors treated Venezuela as background noise. The next, it became a reminder that entrenched geopolitical realities can change faster than anyone expects. Now step back and ask a bigger question. What if Venezuela was not an isolated shock, but the first domino? For the past few months, I’ve been telling my readers that there is a very real possibility of a “peace dividend” breaking out in much of the world in 2026. See, when peace breaks out, it’s a big deal. And it’s not just about lowering defense budgets or raising growth forecasts among the countries involved. It’s more about mindset. When fear fades, people do not just feel better. They take more risk. They stop preparing for disruption. They spend more, they build businesses. The economic consequences of a peace dividend can be profound. So, in today’s Market 360, I want to walk you through why the world may be entering one of those moments right now. We will briefly look at why what happened in Venezuela could be just a prelude. I also want to highlight two other major geopolitical developments that could reinforce this change narrative. And finally, I will explain why understanding periods of rapid change is critical for navigating what comes next in the markets. Venezuelan President Captured in Surprise Attack As I mentioned last week, the U.S. military conducted a surprise operation in Venezuela, apprehending Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores. In the aftermath, power shifted to Delcy Rodríguez, who has since been sworn in as Venezuela’s new president. While Rodríguez initially condemned the Trump administration’s actions, her tone has since shifted. She has stated that she intends to pursue “balanced and respectful international relations between the United States and Venezuela.” The broader implication is not just political – it’s also economic. The U.S. move is closely tied to stabilizing Venezuela’s energy sector and encouraging foreign investment. Major U.S. energy companies, including Chevron Corporation (CVX), are expected to play a role in repairing Venezuela’s energy infrastructure and production, with billions of dollars likely to be directed toward rebuilding efforts. As I mentioned previously, the more important takeaway for investors is speed. A situation that appeared frozen for years suddenly moved. And markets were forced to reprice expectations almost overnight. This won’t be the last geopolitical shift we see this year. In fact, two big developments could happen relatively soon… President Trump Meets with Ukraine's President Earlier this month, President Trump met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at Mar-a-Lago to discuss a potential framework for ending the war with Russia. The key takeaway from this meeting was the U.S. offering a security guarantee of up to 15 years at the end of the war. Shortly thereafter, at a summit in Paris, Ukraine’s European allies committed to additional security measures aimed at deterring further attacks on Ukraine. The U.K. and France went further, indicating they would be willing to deploy troops to Ukraine following a ceasefire agreement in order to maintain peace. In the meantime, Russia extended its ban on gasoline exports through February in order to conserve fuel for domestic supplies. This ban also includes diesel, marine fuel and other refined products that have been impacted by the fighting with Ukraine. If there is an incentive for Russia to end the fighting with Ukraine, Russia’s domestic energy infrastructure is likely a big one. To be clear, I’m not saying that I’m predicting an end to the conflict. But the potential is there, and it can happen faster than you expect. Overall, a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia would alleviate a significant amount of uncertainty, and the stock market should experience a relief rally. In fact, even the possibility of that outcome can influence market behavior well before anything is finalized. Large Protests Persist in Iran Large anti-government protests continue to spread across Iran, driven by its deteriorating currency and the oppression of its citizens. Protests have occurred in more than 220 locations in 26 of Iran’s 31 provinces. The word “azadi,” the Farsi word for freedom, is being chanted during demonstrations. The Iranian protests have been in several major cities, including the holy city of Qom, where the mullahs’ political strength is based. Iran is currently led by the mullahs, but they could eventually be ousted by their outraged citizens, who are dealing with a collapsing currency and an acute water shortage in Tehran. So, these large protests could result in a leadership change, which would be a welcome development given that Iran’s President recently stated that the country was at war with Europe, Israel and the U.S. Since Iran’s mullahs are a big sponsor of terrorism, especially against Israel, the world would be a safer place if they were no longer in charge of Iran. It is worth pausing here to think about how quickly assumptions can change. You can still Google photographs of Iran before the Islamic Revolution. They show a very different country. Modern cities. Universities filled with young people. Men and women wearing modern clothing. A society that looked stable and familiar to the outside world. Sure, tensions were simmering underneath the surface. But suddenly, everything changed overnight. And it happened a lot faster than most expected. What These Shifts Signal for Investors That is how geopolitical transitions often work. Despite all the distractions and international shocks, markets have remained resilient to start the year. But think about the possibilities for a moment. A world in which the Russia-Ukraine conflict ends? And what about Iran? If the current regime falls, it’s anyone’s guess what’s next. But the possibilities are intriguing... Bottom line, I think 2026 could be a year where the “peace dividend” idea takes hold. At first glance, that may seem reassuring as an investor – and it is. A more peaceful world is a more prosperous world. But as the global landscape begins to shift – with uncertainty easing – what matters most isn’t how the market looks on the surface. It’s what’s happening underneath... That’s why I’ve been telling my followers about a dramatic “hidden” shift taking place in the markets right now. Right now, we’re starting to see capital start moving more selectively. Some stocks continue to attract attention, build momentum and benefit from improving conditions. But others are already seeing their fundamentals begin to weaken. In fact, I’m predicting that many of yesterday’s winners could “crash.” Not with a sudden selloff. Not with a dramatic headline. But they could suffer through long stretches where they go nowhere – or steadily decline. Meanwhile, a group of smaller stocks will continue to move higher – and become the new leaders. This is where many investors get caught off guard. Because by the time this shift becomes apparent to the public, it will already be too late. I recently put together a special briefing on this very issue. I explain what investors can do to avoid getting stuck on the wrong side of the next market phase – and about the stocks I’m targeting to become the market’s next leaders. I strongly encourage you to watch it now, because understanding this shift – before it fully unfolds – can make all the difference in how your portfolio performs from here. Sincerely, | .png)
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