The Banks Are Predicting a Good Year for Stocks 2026 is going to be a year of positive growth for stocks. That's according to all the major U.S. banks, at least... Names from JPMorgan Chase to Morgan Stanley to Barclays are calling for stocks to rise this year. However, the predictions for growth vary widely... Oppenheimer Asset Management recently predicted the S&P 500 Index will reach 8,100 by the end of 2026. This was the highest forecast among major Wall Street brokerages. To hit that level, the benchmark stock index would need to rise roughly 18% from where it ended 2025 (at 6,845). And after the 16% gain the index posted last year, that would make 2026 the fourth year in a row that the S&P 500 advanced by double digits. Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank expects the index to finish the year at 8,000... And Bank of America has the least optimistic view, with a target of 7,100. Still, this would be an annual gain of nearly 4%. The chart below shows the differing forecasts... All these financial institutions believe the stock market is on a clear path toward another strong year of gains. And I'm inclined to agree... For one, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index – which gauges consumer attitudes on the economy – is currently near an all-time low. That means folks are scared right now, not euphoric like you'd expect to see at a market peak. Similarly, the CNN Fear & Greed Index stands at 50 as I write. A "neutral" reading like this is another good sign that we haven't yet reached euphoric levels. Everything we're seeing right now tells us the average investor isn't blindly giddy about stocks. In other words, this bull market hasn't reached its peak yet. So it wouldn't surprise me to see stocks post a positive return this year. Still, despite this promising outlook for a gain by year-end, the market could face extreme bouts of volatility in the months between. My friend and colleague Marc Chaikin has been vocal about this very issue... He's expecting 2026 to be a particularly volatile year thanks to something called the "January Trigger" flashing. Since 1950, this signal has predicted market turbulence with 100% accuracy. As Marc says, "We have never seen a calm, straight-up year for stocks after it flashes." Now, he's urging investors like you to move your money by January 14 – before the chaos begins. And to help you navigate the uncertainty ahead, he has also compiled a helpful list of the top 10 stocks to buy this year and top 10 stocks to avoid. To hear more from Marc about the January Trigger, which stocks you should buy and avoid, and how you can survive (and thrive in) the volatility, click here. Here's to our health, wealth, and a great retirement, Dr. David Eifrig and the Health & Wealth Bulletin Research Team
January 10, 2026
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Reader question of the week... Q: I just saw on the news that most people are "obese" now according to a new definition. Thoughts from you, Doc? – P.J. A: For decades, the body mass index ("BMI") has been the standard to determine if someone is obese. Your BMI calculation comes from dividing your weight (in kilograms) by your height (in meters squared). But in October, researchers at Mass General Brigham and Harvard Medical conducted a study with more than 300,000 adults to create a new definition of obesity. Instead of just using BMI, researchers also looked at a person's anthropometric measurements: their waist circumference, waist-to-hip ratio, and waist-to-height ratio. To be classified as obese, a person needed to have: (1) elevated BMI plus at least 1 elevated anthropometric measure or BMI greater than 40; (2) at least 2 elevated anthropometric measures, irrespective of BMI; or (3) excess body fat. What they found with this new definition is that nearly 70% of American adults are likely obese, compared with previous estimates of about 40%. Regular Health & Wealth Bulletin readers have heard for years that using your BMI as a primary indicator of your health is critically flawed... As I explained in Tuesday's issue, my own favorite indicator is waist circumference. It's the most likely to highlight our bodies' dangerous visceral fat. The new metric you cited, P.J., is a big improvement over BMI. If you are obese based on either this approach or your waist size, it's time to take action. Increase your physical activity and consider the Mediterranean diet. Numbers like these are only one of many factors that make up your overall health picture. But if they're giving you a warning, don't ignore it. Keep sending your questions, comments, and suggestions our way. We read every e-mail... feedback@healthandwealthbulletin.com.
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