| | | | Dear Reader, | Tax season is almost here, and many Americans are already counting on a refund. The IRS has confirmed Monday, January 26, 2026 as opening day for filing 2025 returns, according to a recent IRS announcement. | A refund may feel like a reward. But in plain terms, it's often just proof that you overpaid during the year and waited to get your own money back. | What to watch next isn't your refund tracker. It's whether your household cash flow is set up to support discipline month by month, not once a year. |
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| | | | | Alert: Huge Tesla Shift Ahead? | | Tesla could be on the verge of its biggest change ever. Insiders are warning of a coming "critical inflection point" that could have ripple effects across the entire stock market. | Do NOT buy or sell Tesla stock until you see this. | Full briefing here |
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| | | | | Why This Matters | Withholding is simply prepaying your income tax out of every paycheck. If too much is withheld, you get a refund. If too little is withheld, you may owe and could face penalties if the shortfall is large enough. | The real issue is behavioral: refunds feel "safe" because they're automatic. Many households treat them like forced savings, even when that same family carried credit-card balances, delayed home repairs, or struggled with monthly bills all year. | That's not tax strategy. That's cash-flow strategy and it's one of the few financial levers you can control without taking more market risk. |
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| | | | | Where Things Stand | Budgets are still under pressure. The latest inflation data shows CPI rose 2.7% over the past 12 months through December 2025, per the newest CPI release. Meanwhile, money has a real cost: the 10-year Treasury yield has been sitting around the low-to-mid 4% range in January, based on widely tracked Treasury yield data. | For everyday investors, that's the reminder: timing matters. If you're consistently getting a large refund, consider adjusting your W-4 so more of your money shows up in your paycheck now. The IRS explicitly encourages taxpayers to check their withholding using its withholding guidance and tools. | The goal isn't to "minimize" taxes. It's to manage your money with intention. |
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| | | | | The Patriot Perspective | A big refund is often good intentions wrapped around weak control. A steadier approach is to aim for a small refund (or small amount due), keep a cash buffer, and let your paycheck reflect your real monthly needs. Discipline works best when it's consistent — not seasonal. | Stay steady,
Kenneth Boyd
Author, Finance Writer, Former Investment Advisor & CPA |
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