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Just For You Wall Street's 2026 Outlook for the S&P 500 May Surprise InvestorsAuthor: Leo Miller. First Published: 1/6/2026. 
Key Points- Although it faced huge bumps in the road along the way, the S&P 500 Index performed impressively in 2025.
- S&P 500 price targets for 2026 indicate that more upside is ahead.
- Despite what happens in a given year, the S&P 500's long-term performance remains its calling card.
While the S&P 500 Index began 2025 on shaky ground, it ultimately delivered for investors. Through April 8, 2025 the index was down more than 16% year-to-date, but by year-end it had reversed course and gained more than 16% for 2025. Including dividends, the index's total return was nearly 18%. Below, we review the S&P 500's path through 2025. More importantly, we'll look at what Wall Street analysts are forecasting for 2026. By and large, analysts expect another solid year for the index, despite widespread concerns about a possible "artificial intelligence (AI) bubble." 2025 in Review: Markets Rebound Strongly After Tariff Woes FadeGold Headed Above $5,000 per Ounce in 2026? Here's How to Play It...
With so many strange events happening across the economy (consumer confidence plummeting, credit-card delinquencies soaring, and more), it's no wonder the richest investors are loading up on gold. But what you might not realize is that there's a much better way to profit from rising gold prices - WITHOUT ever touching an ETF, mining stock, or even bullion. Get the full details here. In late January 2025, Chinese startup Deepseek dominated the headlines by claiming it had built an R1 AI model at a fraction of the cost of U.S. rivals. That announcement pummeled many semiconductor stocks amid fears of over-investment in AI. Despite the sell-off in semiconductors, the S&P 500 held relatively steady, falling only about 1.3% in February. The index's descent accelerated in March as President Trump ratcheted up rhetoric around tariffs. Uncertainty over U.S. trade policy was a key reason the S&P 500 declined almost 6% in March. In early April, President Trump's "Liberation Day" press conference unveiled steep reciprocal tariffs on many nations, sparking a massive sell-off. The S&P 500 dropped roughly 12% between April 2 and April 8. The rout eased quickly, however, after President Trump announced a 90-day pause on most reciprocal tariffs, and the index rebounded more than 10% on April 9. Though volatility persisted in the weeks that followed, the S&P 500 climbed about 5.4% from early April through the end of May as softened tariff proposals eased investor concerns. After May, the index posted positive returns in six of the final seven months of 2025. Renewed optimism around AI was a major driver of the index's second-half strength. The Federal Reserve's three rate cuts in 2025 also provided an important tailwind for stocks. 2026 Forecasts: Analysts Eye 10% S&P 500 UpsideData from Yardeni Research compiles S&P 500 year-end price targets from more than 20 analysts. On average, analysts expect the index to finish 2026 at 7,555. The S&P 500 closed near 6,902 on Jan. 5, so the average forecast implies just under 10% upside for 2026. None of the aggregated price targets is below the index's current level: Stifel Nicolaus's 7,000 target is the lowest and still implies roughly 1.4% upside, while Oppenheimer's 8,100 target is the most bullish, suggesting more than 17% upside. Among analysts surveyed in December 2024, the average S&P 500 target for 2025 was 6,614. That forecast proved fairly accurate, finishing only about 3.5% below the index's actual year-end level of 6,845. By contrast, year-end price targets for 2024 badly missed the mark. The average target was roughly 4,625 — about 27% below the S&P 500's actual 2024 year-end close of 5,822. Yardeni's compilation goes back to 2021, and interestingly, except for 2025, the index finished higher than the most bullish analyst target in each year. The S&P 500: A Powerful Tool for Long-Term Investment SuccessAs with individual stocks, S&P 500 price targets are just that: targets. Analysts don't have crystal balls, and the index's 2026 performance could diverge materially from current estimates in either direction. Still, it's notable that analysts are broadly positive and their forecasts have often been conservative in recent years. Investors should also remember that the S&P 500's real strength is its long-term compounding power, not year-to-year moves. On Dec. 31, 1999 the S&P 500 Total Return Index closed near 2,021; on Dec. 31, 2025 it closed near 15,220 — more than a sevenfold increase over 26 years. That total-return series includes dividends, while the price-target comparisons above use the price index and do not include dividends. The index achieved that long-term gain despite steep drawdowns — roughly 23% in 2002, 38% in 2008 and 19% in 2022. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results, but the history illustrates how a buy-and-hold approach to the S&P 500 has rewarded long-term investors despite intermittent, unsettling periods.
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