OPENING THESIS | While every financial headline this weekend screamed about tariffs, the real story slipped through the cracks. On Friday, two data points landed simultaneously that paint a picture far more consequential than any trade policy: the economy grew at just 1.4% annualized in Q4, while the PCE price index — the Fed's preferred inflation gauge — accelerated to 2.9% year-over-year. Core inflation hit 3.0%, up from 2.8%. That is the textbook definition of stagflation, and it changes everything about how you should position for the next six months.
MARKET OVERVIEW
The S&P 500 closed Friday at 6,909.51, up 0.7% on the day and 1.1% for the week. The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.9% to 22,886.07, snapping a brutal five-week losing streak. The Dow added 0.5%. But Monday morning tells a different story: futures are pointing 0.5% lower on the S&P and 0.7% on the Nasdaq after President Trump announced a 15% global tariff via executive order over the weekend, using Section 122 of the Trade Expansion Act — a legal workaround after the Supreme Court struck down his emergency tariff powers on Friday. Gold surged to $5,175 an ounce. The 10-year Treasury yield eased to 4.07%.
Investor Signal: Friday's rally was a tariff-relief trade, not a growth trade. Monday's reversal confirms the market priced in the wrong catalyst. | | | | When SpaceX goes public, it could hit a $1.5 TRILLION valuation - that would be 3,000 times bigger than Amazon's IPO. | Most investors will be locked out until AFTER the big announcement. | But I've discovered a "backdoor" that lets you grab a pre-IPO stake in SpaceX right now. | I'm revealing the ticker for free. | Click Here for Your FREE "SpaceX" Ticker. |
|
| | DEEP DIVE The Fed's Impossible Triangle
Here is the math that should keep Jerome Powell awake. GDP growth decelerated from 4.4% in Q3 to 1.4% in Q4 — a full percentage point below consensus. Consumer spending, which accounts for roughly 70% of economic output, is rolling over after the longest government shutdown in history gutted confidence. Meanwhile, core PCE at 3.0% is moving in the wrong direction. The Fed cannot cut rates into accelerating inflation. It cannot hold rates steady while growth collapses. And it cannot raise rates without triggering exactly the recession the data already suggests is forming.
Investor Signal: The last time GDP and core PCE diverged this sharply was late 2022. The S&P fell 19% in the following quarter before the Fed blinked.
WHAT IT MEANS
The bond market is already sniffing this out. The 10-year yield dipping to 4.07% despite hotter inflation tells you fixed-income traders are pricing in growth deterioration, not inflation persistence. That is a recessionary signal dressed up in a rising-rate costume. Meanwhile, the dollar index slipped to 97.75 — another tell. When the dollar weakens alongside falling yields, institutional money is rotating out of U.S. growth assets and into hard assets and international exposure. Gold's 2% move this morning is not a fear trade. It is a positioning trade.
Investor Signal: Watch the XLF-to-XLE ratio this week. Financials underperform energy in stagflationary regimes. If that spread widens, the rotation is confirmed. | | | | | Worksport Ltd. (Nasdaq: WKSP) is a Nasdaq-listed manufacturer reporting 61% revenue growth, 31% gross margins, and three product lines entering commercialization. | Operating from a 222,000-sq-ft U.S. facility built to support significantly higher revenue, the company is shipping clean-energy products into a $13B mobile power market and advancing federal and commercial partnerships. | Shares trade below $2 as multiple catalysts unfold. | Alert Disclaimer |
|
| | SECTOR SPOTLIGHT Consumer Discretionary Under Pressure
This week brings earnings from Home Depot and Lowe's — the two best proxies for consumer health in the real economy. With GDP at 1.4% and the housing market sending mixed signals (new home sales beat expectations, but mortgage rates remain elevated), guidance from these retailers will tell us whether the consumer is bending or breaking. Novo Nordisk's Monday plunge after CagriSema failed its primary endpoint adds another wrinkle: the GLP-1 trade that powered healthcare outperformance is suddenly in question. Microsoft is down 18% year-to-date. Tesla and Amazon have each shed more than 8%. The Magnificent Seven trade is fracturing, and the question is whether the rest of the market can hold the line. | | | | CLOSING LENS | Tuesday's State of the Union and Wednesday's NVIDIA earnings will dominate headlines. But the stagflation data from Friday is the signal that matters for portfolio construction. Growth is decelerating. Inflation is reaccelerating. The Fed is trapped. Position accordingly: overweight hard assets, underweight rate-sensitive growth, and keep dry powder for the volatility that historically accompanies this exact macro setup.
Thanks for reading. See you tomorrow. — David Mercer, Senior Market Analyst | Your interaction with our content, in any format, is appreciated. We value your time and the trust you place in our communications. Thank you for being an active member of our community, and we look forward to continued exchanges in the future. Privacy Policy Wall Street Watchdogs ("the Company") values the privacy of visitors to Wall Street Watchdogs site and users of our services. This notice explains how we collect, use, and protect information. Why You're Receiving This Email You're receiving this email because at some point, you opted in to receive updates, news, or information on a specific topic we've previously discussed or shared. Whether it was through a subscription, a form submission, or another form of communication, your information was shared willingly, and we respect your decision to connect with us. Thank you for taking the time to read this email. This message is part of an ongoing conversation between us, and I want to take a moment to ensure you have full transparency about why you received this message, how your information is handled, and what to expect from future emails. If you're wondering about the nature of our correspondence, rest assured that we aim to keep all emails relevant, timely, and from unnecessary clutter. This includes respecting your inbox and refraining from sending irrelevant messages. A Commitment to Non-Intrusive Emails We aim to create a non-intrusive communication experience. This means we won't overwhelm your inbox with excessive messages, and we work hard to ensure our content remains clear and concise. The purpose of this email is to stay connected with you and provide updates or information that we believe is meaningful. If we ever fail to meet these standards, we encourage you to let us know. Feedback, whether positive or constructive, is always appreciated. Your thoughts help us understand how we can do better and improve our communication approach. While we cannot promise every suggestion will be implemented, we will take the time to carefully review and consider your input. Accessibility and Communication If you have any trouble accessing the unsubscribe page, managing preferences, or understanding why you're receiving this email, you can reach out directly to our support team. We aim to provide a response within a reasonable time frame and address your concerns effectively. Our communication is designed to be as inclusive as possible, but we know there's always room for improvement. If you have any feedback on how we can make our emails more accessible or relevant, please don't hesitate to share. Your Privacy is Important We value your trust and take your privacy very seriously. The information you provide is securely stored and never shared, sold, or used outside the purpose for which you provided it. This privacy policy describes how we collects, uses, and protects your information. We collect information you voluntarily provide, such as your name, email address, or phone number. We may also collect technical data from your visit, including browser type, operating system, and your IP address. We use this information to respond to your inquiries, provide access to services, and improve our communications. We do not share your information with unrelated third parties. Some of our services may use third-party tools that store or process data on our behalf. These tools are selected with care and are expected to maintain data responsibly. We do not knowingly collect personal information from children under 13 years of age. If we discover that such information was provided without parental consent, we will delete it promptly. You can request to update or delete your personal information by contacting us. We may update this privacy policy occasionally. Changes will be reflected on the page. Orders with Wall Street Watchdogs are handled using secure processes. If there is a need to update delivery details, someone from our team may contact you. Please note, we do not ask for personal payment information by email. You can enable extra sign-in protection and use strong security to help keep you safe. We regularly review our systems and follow best practices to help protect your information. If you notice anything unusual, it may be helpful to review your settings. Transparency is our priority, and we're happy to address any questions you might have. How to Unsubscribe or Manage Your Preferences We understand that everyone's inbox is different. If you ever find our emails no longer relevant, there's no hard feelings. You can easily manage your email preferences or unsubscribe using the link provided below. By clicking the unsubscribe link, you'll be taken to a page where you can either adjust your communication preferences (such as receiving fewer emails or only on specific topics) or completely remove yourself from our list. The process is straightforward, and any changes will take effect promptly. We don't use tricks or gimmicks to keep you subscribed. Our priority is to ensure that our emails add value to your day, and if they don't, we respect your decision to part ways. Legal Information We comply with all applicable laws and regulations regarding email communication. This includes adhering to laws and maintaining the highest standards for consent-based communication. Your trust matters, and we work diligently to ensure every email you receive meets these requirements. If you need further clarification on our compliance policies or legal obligations, please ask. Transparency and accountability are central to our communication strategy, and we're happy to provide additional details if needed. Contact Information We strive to ensure all communication channels are open and readily available to you. Whether it's a question, comment, or concern, our team is ready to assist. For assistance, please contact our team via email by replying to this email. A Final Note Emails are one of the many ways we stay connected, but we understand they aren't perfect for everyone. If there's another way you'd prefer to communicate or stay updated, let us know. Whether it's through social media, a direct call, or another channel, we're open to finding the most effective way to share information with you. We want to emphasize that our goal is never to disrupt or clutter your inbox. Every email sent is intended to provide value, and we genuinely appreciate your time and attention. This footer was designed to ensure transparency, provide essential information, and give you full control over your communication preferences. We hope it meets your expectations, but if there's anything you'd like to see improved, we're always here to listen. Best regards, Wall Street Watchdogs |
|
0 التعليقات:
إرسال تعليق