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| Ad Budgets Are Loosening, and ROI Is Still the Boss |
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| Advertising is back, but it is not the old spray-and-pray version. In 2026, the money is going where it can be measured, optimized, and justified in one meeting with a stressed-out CFO. | That is why performance advertising tends to recover faster than the vibe economy. Brands will spend. They just want receipts. | | | | | Theme: Performance Advertising, The ROI Arms Race | Ad cycles usually follow confidence. When companies feel good, they spend more. When they feel uncertain, they still spend, but they get picky. That pickiness is the whole opportunity. | Here is the chain reaction: | Business confidence improves → budgets loosen
Budgets loosen → performance channels get first dollars
Performance channels grow → measurement tools become a moat
Moat strengthens → platforms gain share and pricing power
Pricing power improves → operating leverage shows up fast | This theme matters because digital advertising has a flywheel. More spend drives better data. Better data drives better targeting and measurement. Better targeting boosts ROI, which attracts more spend. The winners are the platforms that can prove outcomes, not just impressions. | The other tailwind is fragmentation. Consumers are spread across apps, streaming, social feeds, and niche communities. That makes centralized tools that help advertisers buy efficiently across fragmented inventory more valuable, not less. | What we want to see to stay bullish | Signs budgets are recovering, especially from performance-minded advertisers Stable or improving auction dynamics and take rates Product upgrades that improve measurement and targeting Strong retention and spend expansion from existing customers Margin discipline as revenue scales
| What can ruin the party | A macro wobble that freezes discretionary budgets again, tougher privacy rules that reduce measurement quality, or competition that forces pricing down. Adtech can also get punished for expectations. If the market thinks growth should be perfect, any speed bump becomes a felony. | | | The Trade Desk (TTD) | What it does: Demand-side platform that helps advertisers buy digital ads across channels, with a big focus on connected TV and programmatic buying. | Why it fits: The Trade Desk benefits from the shift toward measurable, automated ad buying and from advertisers wanting tools that work across fragmented inventory. If CTV keeps growing and measurement improves, it can keep taking share. | What could go right: | CTV spend keeps climbing as streaming inventory expands Better measurement tools drive stronger ROI, boosting budgets Continued share gains as advertisers consolidate spend into fewer platforms Operating leverage improves as revenue scales
| What to watch next: Customer retention and spend expansion, CTV commentary, and any signals that agencies and brands are increasing budgets rather than just shifting them around. | Risk: Ad cycles can turn quickly. If growth slows, this name tends to get judged harshly because expectations are high. |
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| | | AppLovin (APP) | What it does: Advertising and software platform with strong exposure to mobile performance advertising. | Why it fits: Mobile performance budgets are often among the first to come back when advertisers want measurable outcomes. If AppLovin keeps delivering strong performance, it can keep attracting spend. | What could go right: | Strong performance outcomes keep budgets flowing in Better monetization drives revenue per user higher Operating leverage expands profitability Continued product improvements deepen competitive advantage
| What to watch next: Advertiser demand trends, monetization metrics, and any commentary on budget stability. Also watch whether growth is broad-based or concentrated. | Risk: Competitive intensity is real in mobile ads. Sentiment can swing quickly if performance metrics wobble. |
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| | | | | Pinterest (PINS) | What it does: Visual discovery platform that monetizes through advertising, often tied to commerce and intent-driven browsing. | Why it fits: Pinterest sits in an interesting spot: users show intent, which advertisers like, and the platform can benefit when performance budgets rebound. If product improvements keep increasing monetization without wrecking the user experience, it can work well. | What could go right: | Better ad tools improve ROI and attract more budget International monetization keeps catching up Shopping and commerce features improve conversion outcomes Margin expansion continues with disciplined spending
| What to watch next: Average revenue per user trends, especially internationally, plus engagement health. If user experience stays strong while monetization improves, that is the sweet spot. | Risk: If engagement weakens or ad load becomes too heavy, growth can slow. Social platforms can also be sentiment-driven. |
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| | | Reddit (RDDT) | What it does: Community-based social platform with advertising and data licensing potential. | Why it fits: Reddit has unique inventory. People come to read real discussions, and that can be valuable for advertisers looking for engaged audiences. If ad products mature and performance improves, monetization can ramp from a relatively early base. | What could go right: | Better ad targeting and measurement drive budget adoption Increased demand as brands seek differentiated audiences Improved execution lifts revenue per user Operating leverage emerges as the platform scales
| What to watch next: Ad revenue growth, progress on ad tools, and whether advertiser adoption broadens beyond a handful of categories. | Risk: Platform changes can affect engagement. Monetization ramps can be uneven, and newer public names can swing hard on any guidance shift. |
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| | Poll: If your spending had a villain, who is it? | |
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| | | Magnite (MGNI) | What it does: Supply-side platform that helps publishers monetize inventory, including connected TV and digital video. | Why it fits: If CTV keeps growing, publishers need tools to manage and monetize inventory efficiently. Magnite benefits if publishers prioritize yield and if programmatic CTV continues gaining share. | What could go right: | Programmatic CTV growth lifts volume Better yield management improves take rates More publisher adoption increases network effects Operating leverage improves as revenue scales
| What to watch next: CTV growth metrics, publisher demand commentary, and the pace of programmatic adoption in premium video. | Risk: SSPs can face pricing pressure and competition. If publishers consolidate partners or shift strategies, growth can get choppy. |
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| | Want to make sure you never miss a stock recommendation? | Elite Trade Club now offers text alerts — so you get trending stocks and market-moving news sent straight to your phone before the bell. Email's great. Texts are faster. | 👉 Click here to get our detailed stock analysis sent to your cell for free! | | Performance advertising is where budgets go when nobody wants to defend a brand campaign with vibes. | Watch the quality signals: retention, spend expansion, measurement improvements, and whether CTV keeps converting hype into real dollars. | If budgets keep recovering and platforms keep proving ROI, these five names can keep climbing in 2026. | If the macro freezes spending again, we stay selective and focus on the companies that are winning share, not just riding the cycle. | Best Regards, | — Adam Garcia
Elite Trade Club |
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