Folks, AI's war on software claims another victim... AI company Anthropic recently put together an e-book called The Code Modernization Playbook. In short, it covers transitioning away from a programming language called COBOL.
An AI Company Picks a Fight With This Century-Old Tech Titan
By Ethan Goldman, analyst, Chaikin Analytics
Folks, AI's war on software claims another victim...
AI company Anthropic recently put together an e-book called The Code Modernization Playbook. In short, it covers transitioning away from a programming language called COBOL.
You see, COBOL is a "legacy" system. Its first version came out in 1960.
And it still plays a critical role in your day-to-day activities...
Today, COBOL still supports 80% of in-person credit-card transactions. And 95% of ATM transactions use COBOL to deliver your cash to you.
All in all, COBOL is behind more than $3 billion of commerce every day.
But as I said, COBOL is a legacy system. And there have been major attempts to modernize these systems in the past few years...
Just a few days ago, Anthropic's AI model Claude launched an "attack" on COBOL – and a major player behind it.
Obviously, this wasn't an actual attack. In short, Claude claims it can help engineers bring their COBOL databases out of the software stone age.
The attack sank the stock of a legacy tech giant. But this company won't go down without a fight...
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IBM Fires Back at Anthropic for Missing the 'Big Picture'
I'm talking about IBM (IBM).
Its history of innovation started back in 1911. And the company has been a leader in the tech industry ever since.
To be clear, IBM didn't create COBOL. But it offers the language on its enterprise systems.
Over the past month, IBM's stock has dropped by about 20%. And a huge chunk of that drop happened in just one day – after Claude's "attack" on COBOL ...
Naturally, IBM didn't take this attack lightly. The company quickly retaliated with a detailed blog post.
It's titled "Lost in Translation: What the AI code debate keeps getting wrong".
Folks, these are fighting words...
I'll spare you the corporate drama. But just know that IBM leveraged its deep experience in COBOL to tell Anthropic that using AI to modernize the programming language isn't so easy.
IBM says the real work isn't simply translating the code. As the blog post states...
The real work is data architecture redesign, runtime replacement, transaction processing integrity, and non-functional requirements baked into the platform itself. That is system-level engineering, not language conversion.
This may seem like IBM doesn't want anything to do with AI in its systems.
But that couldn't be further from the truth.
IBM says AI only strengthens the mainframe case. And it's more than just words...
The company offers full systems with "AI built into its DNA".
Now, I don't know how this battle between Anthropic and IBM will pan out.
But we can consult the Power Gauge for its opinion on IBM's stock...
Our System Signals Caution on IBM For Now
Today, the Power Gauge gives IBM a "neutral" rating.
Put simply, our system is cautious on the stock right now. Take a look at the chart below with some data from the Power Gauge...
In the first panel below the chart, you'll note that the "smart money" on Wall Street didn't care much for IBM until late January.
In fact, IBM was in mostly "bearish" territory as December ended and as we moved through January. The Power Gauge even flashed three separate sell alerts for the stock during that time.
But on January 28, IBM reported a fourth-quarter earnings beat...
The smart money quickly surged in. And the Power Gauge even flashed two alerts related to a big improvement in the stock's relative strength.
All this helped pull IBM into "neutral" territory.
But you'll notice that IBM's relative strength has declined in recent weeks. And the smart-money buying activity has also slid into the red. And as I said, the stock still gets a "neutral" grade in the Power Gauge.
Again, I don't know how the new feud between Anthropic and IBM will pan out...
IBM might be correct with its claim that using AI to modernize software code isn't as easy as it seems. But as far as the stock goes, the Power Gauge sees far better places to put money to work.
Good investing,
Ethan Goldman
Market View
Major Indexes and Notable Sectors
# Hld: Bullish Neutral Bearish
Dow 30
+0.62%
10
16
4
S&P 500
+0.84%
135
269
94
Nasdaq
+1.45%
27
47
26
Small Caps
+0.47%
619
930
338
Bonds
+0.01%
Information Technology
+1.92%
25
30
14
— According to the Chaikin Power Bar, Small Cap stocks and Large Cap stocks are somewhat Bullish. Major indexes are mixed.
* * * *
Sector Tracker
Sector movement over the last 5 days
Utilities
+3.84%
Communication
+1.67%
Information Technology
+1.49%
Consumer Staples
+1.1%
Industrials
+0.32%
Real Estate
+0.21%
Energy
+0.16%
Health Care
+0.1%
Materials
+0.08%
Consumer Discretionary
+0.06%
Financial
-1.37%
* * * *
Industry Focus
NYSE Technology Services
11
17
7
Over the past 6 months, the NYSE Technology subsector (XNTK) has outperformed the S&P 500 by +4.86%. Its Power Bar ratio, which measures future potential, is Strong, with more Bullish than Bearish stocks. It is currently ranked #13 of 21 subsectors.
Top Stocks
ASML
ASML Holding N.V.
AMAT
Applied Materials, I
APH
Amphenol Corporation
* * * *
Top Movers
Gainers
AXON
+17.55%
COIN
+13.52%
SMCI
+7.93%
WDC
+7.53%
APP
+7.22%
Losers
GDDY
-14.28%
FSLR
-13.61%
CSGP
-8.89%
BF.B
-7.63%
BLDR
-6.43%
* * * *
Earnings Report
Earnings Surprises
TKO TKO Group Holdings, Inc.
Q4
$0.02
Missed by $-0.07
CRM Salesforce, Inc.
Q4
$3.81
Beat by $0.76
VICI VICI Properties Inc.
Q4
$0.57
Missed by $-0.13
APG APi Group Corporation
Q4
$0.44
Beat by $0.03
SNPS Synopsys, Inc.
Q1
$3.77
Beat by $0.21
* * * *
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