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| Budget Cuts, Open Houses, and a Social Plan B |
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| One mega-cap is tightening the belt while spending big on AI, a housing rebound story just flashed signs of life, and a growth name is making a bold pivot after missing a splashy deal. Here's how we would play it. | |
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| | Futures at a Glance📈 | Futures are nudging lower into a big morning data combo: GDP and the Fed's favorite inflation read, PCE. The other wildcard is a possible Supreme Court call on Trump's tariffs, which could spark a quick risk-on bounce if it goes the market's way. Add in rising U.S.–Iran tension pushing oil up, and it's a classic headlines and data setup. | |
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| | What to Watch | Earnings (Premarket):
• AngloGold Ashanti PLC [AU]
• PPL Corporation [PPL]
• Lamar Advertising Company [LAMR]
• Hudbay Minerals Inc. [HBM] | Earnings (Aftermarket):
• Protagonist Therapeutics, Inc. [PTGX]
• Sibanye Stillwater Limited [SBSW]
• TXNM Energy, Inc. [TXNM] | Economic Reports:
• GDP (Q4): 8:30 am
• Personal income (Dec): 8:30 am
• Personal spending (Dec): 8:30 am
• PCE index (Dec): 8:30 am
• Core PCE index (Dec): 8:30 am
• S&P flash U.S. services PMI (Feb): 9:45 am
• S&P flash U.S. manufacturing PMI (Feb): 9:45 am
• New home sales (Nov, delayed): 10:00 am
• New home sales (Dec, delayed): 10:00 am
• Consumer sentiment, prelim (Feb): 10:00 am | Fed Speakers:
• Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic: 9:45 am |
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| | Communication Services | Meta Trims The Stock Candy While It Buys The AI Gym Membership | | Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ: META) just tightened the employee stock-award faucet by about 5% for most staff. Think of it like your favorite restaurant shrinking the fries a bit while adding a new fancy cocktail menu. Same brand, different priorities. | The timing makes the story easy to read. Meta is spending big on its AI ambitions, which means someone, somewhere, is being asked to be a little less expensive. This is not a panic headline; it is a budgeting headline. Still, it can mess with morale, and morale can mess with execution. | For investors, the question is simple: does this turn into smarter spending with steady growth, or does it turn into a vibes problem that shows up later in retention and product speed? The stock can live with cost discipline. It struggles when focus gets fuzzy. | My Take For You: If you own it, keep it, but watch for any signs that the cost push starts hitting talent or product momentum. If you do not own it, wait for a softer entry instead of chasing a quiet headline day. | My Verdict: Hold or starter-buy on dips, as long as execution stays clean. |
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| | Consumer Discretionary | Opendoor Technologies Just Did A Better Quarter, But The Housing Hangover Is Still Real | | Opendoor Technologies Inc (NASDAQ: OPEN) popped after a quarter where results beat expectations and the company pointed to a better near-term outlook. That is the good news. The very human news is that revenue still fell hard year over year, which is what happens when housing goes from party mode to couch mode. | The market likes what it saw in the direction of travel: improving losses, better cash flow, and guidance that suggests the next step is less painful than feared. It is basically a "we are not fixed yet, but we stopped making new dents" update. | Your risk is the same as always with this name: it moves fast on hope, and it can reverse fast when rates, inventory, or buyer confidence change their mood. Treat it like a progress report, not a graduation ceremony. | My Take For You: If you are not in, start small only after the pop cools and it holds those gains for a few sessions. If you are in, consider trimming a little into strength and keep the rest with a clear exit line. | My Verdict: Trade-first, invest-later. Promising traction, still headline-sensitive. |
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| | Technology | AppLovin Missed The TikTok Train, So It's Building Its Own Station | | AppLovin Corp (NASDAQ: APP) is floating a new idea: build its own social platform after its bid for TikTok assets outside China did not land. That is a classic pivot move. If you cannot buy the party, you host your own. | The appeal is obvious. A social platform can create a firehose of user attention, and attention is basically the currency AppLovin already knows how to monetize. The risk is also obvious. Social is crowded, expensive, and full of feature copycats who run faster than you think. | So the setup is less about dreaming and more about proof. This story gets interesting only if AppLovin shows early traction, clear differentiation, and a path that does not torch margins to buy users. Until then, treat the move as a headline catalyst, not a finished product. | My Take For You: If you own it, stay in but do not add on the first excitement bump. If you want in, wait for specifics and an execution checkpoint or two before starting a position. | My Verdict: Watch-list with upside, but it needs receipts before it earns a bigger bet. |
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| | Poll: Which industry monetizes nostalgia best? | | | Movers and Shakers | | Grail Inc [GRAL]: Premarket Move: −48% | This one just face-planted after a big trial readout didn't hit the main goal. That is biotech for you: one data point and the market goes from future of medicine to delete the app. | Yes, there were some silver-lining notes in the release, but when the primary endpoint misses, traders usually don't stick around to read the footnotes. | My Take: Do not try to catch this falling knife at the open. Put it on the watchlist and only consider a tiny starter if it finds a floor and starts basing for a few days. |
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| Akamai Technologies Inc [AKAM]: Premarket Move: −10% | They beat on sales and profits, but the stock still got whacked because the outlook for profits next year didn't wow anyone. Classic market behavior. | This kind of move is often more about expectations than execution, and it can turn into a decent dip-buy if it stops bleeding. | My Take: Let the first hour pass. If it steadies and starts to bounce, a small starter makes sense. If it keeps leaking, wait for a cleaner setup near support. |
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| Workiva Inc [WK]: Premarket Move: +10% | Workiva just came in with a solid quarter and upbeat next-step guidance, and the stock is getting the morning applause. This is one of those moves where buyers show up early and shorts suddenly remember they have errands. | The only catch is these pops can cool off once the opening hype fades. | My Take: Don't chase the spike. If it pulls back and holds, start small and add only if it stays strong into the afternoon. |
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| | Everything Else | Nvidia is reportedly in talks to put up to $30B into OpenAI, which is basically the AI arms race showing up with a suitcase of cash. At India's AI summit, Altman and Amodei took the stage as the "two heavyweights, one microphone" moment for the next phase of AI competition. A private-credit warning light is flashing after liquidity curbs at Blue Owl, spooking investors who hate the words limited access and surprise timing. Netflix may have more room to sweeten its bid in the Warner Bros. contest, because apparently streaming is also a contact sport now. Amazon's cloud unit got hit by at least two AI-tool outages, which is a rough look when everyone's trying to sell "always on" as the whole pitch.
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| | That's all for today. Thank you for reading. If you have any feedback, please reply to this email. | Best Regards, | — Adam Garcia
Elite Trade Club |
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