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Market Crux: A New National Security Backdrop Puts (SOAR) in Focus
This Morning—Tuesday, February 3, 2026
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February 3, 2026
Don't Hit the Snooze Button | Pull Up (SOAR) While It's Still Early—Here's Why
Dear Reader, Yesterday's Market Crux profile tapped $6.06, marking an approximate 46% move from Friday's $4.15 range—but a national security-driven development in the critical-minerals space has just pushed another company into focus this morning. The global race for resource independence is accelerating, putting domestic supply-chain security squarely at the center of the national security conversation. The global race for resource independence has reached a fever pitch, placing the security of the domestic supply chain at the very center of the national security conversation. As the United States maneuvers to insulate its manufacturing core from external supply shocks, one specific company is positioning itself at the intersection of domestic supply-chain security and critical-mineral infrastructure. Volato Group, Inc. (NYSE American: SOAR) is in the middle of a high-stakes transition—shifting from its legacy roots toward a supply-chain-focused mission that, if executed as outlined, could materially reshape where it sits in the broader U.S. industrial landscape. And this is just one of the reasons why (SOAR) is topping our watchlist this morning—Tuesday, February 3, 2026.
But keep in mind, (SOAR) has less than 7M shares listed as available to the public, according to MarketWatch. When companies have small floats like this, the potential exists for big moves if demand begins to shift. And that's already starting to show on the chart. (SOAR) just made an approximate 68% move in less than a week, from around $.41 on January 26 to $.69 on January 30, according to data from Barchart. 
After that move, (SOAR) is now trending above several key technical levels, including its 5-day and 20-day moving averages around $0.61 and $0.59, respectively. With its 50-day and 100-day moving averages still sitting higher—around $0.90 and $1.39—we're keeping all eyes on (SOAR). Right now, (SOAR) is sitting below $1, appearing to fly under the radar on my screens—even as the story behind it continues to accelerate. What makes (SOAR) so hard to ignore right here is the way its near-term corporate timeline is lining up with a much bigger national push around critical materials and supply-chain security.
To see why that convergence matters—and why the backdrop is changing faster than most people realize—start with the macro forces now taking shape. America's Critical-Mineral Push Enters a New Phase
The geopolitical landscape is shifting rapidly following reports that a strategic critical-minerals stockpile is being launched with $12B in initial capital. This initiative, known as Project Vault, aims to marry $1.67B in private capital with a $10B loan from the U.S. Export-Import Bank to procure and store essential elements like gallium and cobalt. While the world watches these macro shifts, Volato Group, Inc. (NYSE: SOAR) is moving toward a definitive merger with M2i Global, a company specifically designed to address these supply chain vulnerabilities. The effort is akin to the nation's existing emergency oil stockpile, but with a focus on minerals used in products such as iPhones, batteries, and jet engines. This project has participation from more than a dozen major companies, including General Motors Co., Boeing Co., and Alphabet Inc.'s Google. As the U.S. works to slash its reliance on Chinese rare earths and other metals, the strategic importance of domestic sourcing has never been higher. From Legacy Operations to Critical-Mineral Infrastructure
In a pivotal transition, (SOAR) is in the final stages of a merger that would pivot its focus toward M2i Global's mission: executing a "mine-to-manufacturer" strategy. This approach is designed to build a secure, domestic pathway for minerals required across advanced manufacturing supply chains—including the automotive, energy, and defense-industrial base—aligning with broader efforts to reduce reliance on foreign-controlled sourcing. The merger is more than just a corporate restructuring; it is a fundamental shift into the critical minerals sector, which is increasingly viewed as the "new oil" of the high-tech economy. M2i Global's strategy is built on solving the complexity of mineral procurement. By establishing a "Centralized Supply Chain Management" system, the company intends to act as a bridge between raw material production and end-user requirements. Strategic Collaboration and Milestones
A major milestone in this roadmap was the recent strategic collaboration agreement with Titanium X. This agreement includes an exclusive supply arrangement for titanium concentrate, a material vital for the aerospace industry—an area where (SOAR) already maintains deep operational roots. The partnership will see Titanium X and M2i Global jointly finance, develop, and commercialize critical mineral assets, leveraging M2i's global expertise in project execution. Furthermore, Volato Group, Inc. (NYSE: SOAR) and M2i Global recently reaffirmed their targeted first-quarter 2026 merger closing. With Amendment No. 1 to the S-4 filed and under active SEC review, the companies are advancing through the anticipated final stages toward a closing. This reaffirms their expectation to complete the timeline despite a temporary slowdown in regulatory operations earlier in the year. Financial Discipline and Management Strength To prepare for this new chapter, (SOAR) has been tightening its operations and focusing on financial discipline. The company recently announced a six-month pause on its At-the-Market (ATM) equity offering program, a move described as intended to support the capital structure and reduce perceived share overhang ahead of the merger. Matt Liotta, CEO of (SOAR), stated that the company is not reliant on opportunistic equity issuance to fund operations, pointing to management's view of its balance-sheet position. Additionally, the appointment of Alan D. Gaines to the Board of Directors adds a veteran energy industry leader and banker who will chair the Audit Committee. Gaines has participated in more than 200 major transactions and has raised over $100B in aggregate capital during his career, and his prior work as a chief strategic advisor to financier Carl C. Icahn brings relevant experience as (SOAR) moves through this transition. Supply-Chain Resilience for the U.S. and Allies
(SOAR) is also leveraging its software expertise to bring greater transparency and traceability to supply chains. Its existing Parslee Document Intelligence platform is being adapted to support critical mineral traceability, contracting, and compliance. This technology backbone is essential for U.S. national security, ensuring that the origins of materials are verified and auditable. M2i Global was recently featured on "Advancements" with Ted Danson, a program that highlights innovative solutions to global problems. The segment focused on how M2i is working with a strategic group of partners to create a transparent and resilient supply chain for the U.S. and its allies. The Competitive Landscape
As the U.S. government ramps up domestic mineral extraction with initiatives like a $1B program for mining technologies and $500M for battery mineral processing, the positioning of (SOAR) and M2i becomes even more critical. They are building an alternative supply chain that bypasses the volatility of foreign-controlled markets. M2i Global aims to establish a Critical Mineral Reserve (CMR), creating a resilient ecosystem that addresses global shortages. By the end of the first quarter of 2026, the company expects to implement a proof-of-concept material move from Australia to the U.S., utilizing its CMR technology for custody, storage, and tracking. This operational milestone will be a key indicator of the platform's readiness to scale. Here's 7 Reasons Why (SOAR) Just Landed On This Morning's Watchlist
—Tuesday, February 3, 2026
1. Merger Timeline: With (SOAR) and M2i Global targeting a first-quarter 2026 closing and an S-4 amendment under SEC review, (SOAR) has a defined near-term corporate milestone worth tracking. 2. Low Float: With less than 7M shares listed as available to the public per MarketWatch, (SOAR)'s small float could have the potential for big moves if demand begins to shift. 3. Recent Momentum: After an approximate 68% move from about $0.41 (Jan 26) to $0.69 (Jan 30) per Barchart, (SOAR) has already shown it can move quickly in short windows 4. Key Levels: Following that move, (SOAR) is above its 5-day and 20-day moving averages (around $0.61 and $0.59), putting several commonly watched technical markers back in play. 5. Platform Angle: With the Parslee Document Intelligence platform being adapted for mineral traceability, contracting, and compliance, (SOAR) has a technology component that supports the "mine-to-manufacturer" concept. 6. Supply Agreement: Through the Titanium X collaboration that includes an exclusive titanium concentrate supply arrangement, (SOAR) is tied to a tangible sourcing milestone connected to critical minerals. 7. Macro Alignment: As Project Vault is reported at $12B in seed funding tied to U.S. supply-chain security priorities, (SOAR) is positioning around the same critical-materials policy backdrop Taken together, these seven points show why (SOAR) is showing up on screens right now: the structure is tight, the chart has already started responding, and the calendar has defined milestones ahead. When a near-term corporate timeline lines up with a fast-changing national priority around critical materials, it creates a setup that rewards paying attention to the details. That's why (SOAR) deserves a quick look this morning. Get (SOAR) On Your Screen While It's Still Early…
Add in the Project Vault policy backdrop, a critical-minerals sourcing collaboration, and a traceability-focused software layer through Parslee, and (SOAR) becomes the kind of situation where the details matter and the timeline matters even more. We have (SOAR) front and center on our screens this morning. Get (SOAR) on your radar while it's still early. And keep an eye out for my next update—it could be on its way to you before the bell rings. Sincerely, Gary Silver
Managing Editor, Market Crux
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