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Featured News from MarketBeat.com Waste Management's "Boring" Business Is Powering a Quiet RallyWritten by Thomas Hughes. Article Posted: 1/30/2026. 
Quick Look- Waste Management’s Q4 results missed estimates, but revenue growth and margin expansion stayed on track with long-term trends.
- Free cash flow is expected to accelerate, supporting a mix of dividend growth and a planned return to share repurchases.
- The stock remains in an uptrend after the post-earnings pullback, with buyers likely to defend key moving-average support.
Waste Management (NYSE: WM) stock is not idle — its high-quality operations are supported by growing demand for waste services. Economic activity is solid, consumption remains high, and that means more waste to collect — a profitable business in an industry expected to continue expanding. There are 90 paper gold claims for every real ounce in COMEX vaults. Ninety promises, one ounce of metal. It's like musical chairs with 90 players and one chair. COMEX gold inventory dropped 25 percent last year alone as gold flows East to Shanghai, Mumbai, and Moscow. On March 31st, contract holders can demand delivery. When similar situations arose in the past, markets closed and rules changed. Paper holders got crushed while mining stock holders made fortunes. One stock sits at the center of this crisis. Get the full story on this opportunity now. Q4 results may have left investors wanting more, but the important metrics are growth, margin improvement, cash flow, and the capacity for capital returns. The company isn't growing explosively, but it is growing, margins are widening, and capital returns are accelerating. Dividend Growth and Buybacks Support WM's Shareholder-Return OutlookOn track for inclusion in the Dividend Aristocrats, Waste Management has increased its payout for 23 consecutive years and is positioned to reach the 25-year threshold for inclusion in 2028. That milestone could boost demand for the stock by underscoring the company's stability and cash-generation profile. As of early 2026, the dividend yield is roughly 1.45%, representing about 49% of forecasted earnings and growing at a double-digit pace. Among the Q4 release highlights were a 14% dividend increase and an announcement that the company intends to resume share buybacks. Buybacks were suspended in 2024 to prioritize debt reduction after a major acquisition; Q4 results indicate WM is nearing target leverage levels. Guidance assumes $2 billion in buybacks this year — more than 2% of market cap — which should offset dilution from share-based compensation. The balance sheet shows higher assets, lower net debt and liabilities, and roughly a 20% increase in shareholders' equity at year-end 2025. Waste Management Falls Short of Estimates in Q4Waste Management's Q4 2025 results missed analyst estimates, falling short on both revenue and earnings by roughly 100 basis points. Still, 7.1% revenue growth and margin expansion are consistent with the long-term trends supporting the stock. Strength appeared in the core legacy business and in a newer healthcare-related segment, though the latter remains a small portion of revenue. Earnings quality benefited from revenue leverage and operational improvements, including efficiencies from AI and automation. The result was an 11.7% increase in adjusted earnings — enough to maintain financial health and continue returning capital to shareholders. Guidance was cautious but constructive. While below some expectations, projected 5% revenue growth is paired with forecasts for margin expansion and free cash flow improvement. Free cash flow, a key driver for capital returns, is forecast to grow at an accelerated ~30% pace, supporting the company's buyback and dividend plans. Given the company's momentum and potential economic tailwinds, it's reasonable to expect results could outpace guidance and sustain the current favorable cycle. The analyst response has been positive. The first notable update tracked was Bank of America raising its price target to a near-consensus $245, reinforcing the prevailing upbeat sentiment. Twenty-six analysts rate the stock a consensus Moderate Buy, implying at least an 11% upside to the consensus target and larger gains to the high-end estimates. Waste Management Amid Trend-Following MovementWM's share price pulled back after the Q4 release and guidance update, but the decline did not break the existing uptrend. The market appears to be following the trend, with buyers likely to defend key moving averages. 
A material risk is that a drop below the 150-day EMA could trigger a deeper sell-off, but that outcome is not the base case. Institutions have been accumulating shares and are likely buyers on pullbacks. The more probable scenario is price confirming support near $220, then retesting the all-time high and potentially moving higher.
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