When you can't get your money back... We're due for a private-equity 'reckoning'... The next 10 days will be big for oil prices... The 'make or break' point... Getting greedy when others are fearful...
 Booms are fun. The busts? Not so much...
We'll begin today's Digest with two big headlines in the market. First, here's Bloomberg with an update on the AI boom... OpenAI Funding on Track to Top $100 Billion in Latest Round On the surface, the ChatGPT creator appears to have plenty of investors. However, its biggest funders are still the mega-cap companies that use its products: Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), and Microsoft (MSFT). That doesn't do anything to stifle concerns about "circular funding" in AI. Meanwhile, Main Street investors are getting caught up in a new form of pain: private-equity investing gone wrong. Here's global news service Reuters with the story... Blue Owl halts redemptions at one of its funds, deepening selloff in private equity shares... Private capital firm Blue Owl Capital (OWL) is selling $1.4 billion in assets from three of its credit funds so it can return capital to investors and pay down debt, and permanently halting redemptions at one of the funds, the company said, as direct lending and software stocks come under pressure. "Permanently halting redemptions" is code for not getting your cash back. And the "you" in this case is retail investors who hopped aboard the private-equity investing buzz via Blue Owl's first private retail debt fund that launched in September 2025. It's an investing tale as old as money: Booms always bust. The catalyst this time appears to be the 'SaaSpocalypse'... As we've written in these pages before, investors are panic selling software stocks among increased fears around AI's growing footprint and capabilities, real or imagined. But investors are also selling tech stocks as they start to wonder about the payoff for all these AI investments. Private-equity firms are involved in financing both of these sectors. Blue Owl's shares have lost more than 50% of their value since their January 2025 high. They were down 6% today alone. Obviously, that's bad news for Blue Owl investors. But the headline also raises questions about the stability of the credit markets in general. Even more concerning, real financial crises are always about credit... And fear-based sentiment can quickly rattle parts of the broad market in unexpected ways. It reminds me (Corey McLaughlin) of the Silicon Valley Bank crisis three years ago. In short, panic spread in Silicon Valley when it became obvious that Silicon Valley Bank was sitting on billions of bond losses in a higher-interest-rate environment. Venture capitalists rushed to pull their money from the bank as sentiment soured and clients worried they would never get their cash back. It was the largest bank failure since Washington Mutual's demise in 2008 amid the financial crisis. The thing is, Silicon Valley Bank was already insolvent. The run by clients merely killed it. And it set off a U.S. regional-bank crisis that caused the Federal Reserve and Treasury Department to step in with a "fix." As we wrote at the time, the "crisis" was avoidable. Silicon Valley Bank simply had too much interest-rate risk and made a series of other bad decisions. Yet the episode upended the market for a while. We're due for a 'reckoning' in private equity... If you haven't already, I urge you to check out this Stansberry Investor Hour podcast interview Dan Ferris and I conducted with Verdad Advisers' Dan Rasmussen about a year ago. In it, we discuss a "reckoning" coming in private equity and how it could play out. Dan R. said... The business is fundamentally taking very small companies, very small private companies, and changing their capital structure to a mix of debt and equity that's funded by pension funds and endowments through these private-equity funds... These days, there's this whole market where 40% or 50% of the transactions are sponsor-to-sponsor. So, one private-equity firm sells it to another private-equity firm and it just creates this sort of cyclical thing where the more money in the asset class, the higher the valuations and the higher the trailing returns... Everyone sort of benefits as long as this sort of closed system keeps taking in new money... The challenge is that, what happens when the money starts drying up? Freezing the exits (permanently halting redemptions) is one thing that can happen. If we see enough of that, and if enough private firms can't pay each other, "crisis mode" arrives soon after. For now, the Blue Owl pain appears to be isolated. But shares of private-equity and credit firms Carlyle (CG) and Ares Management (ARES) lost 3% today in sympathy with the news, continuing their sharp 20%-plus downtrends over the past month. Most of the major U.S. stock indexes were also down today, except for the small-cap Russell 2000 Index, which gained 0.1%. What's going on between the U.S. and Iran (and oil prices)... Earlier this week, U.S. and Iranian representatives met in Switzerland to discuss a new agreement about Iran's nuclear program. As we reported in the Digest on Tuesday, positive sentiment around the talks appeared to ease some concern in the market – with oil prices falling. However, just a day after the talks wrapped up with the promises of more discussion, an unnamed White House official signaled that we could soon see more U.S. military presence in the Middle East. Earlier today, President Donald Trump said he'll decide whether to make a deal or "take it a step further" (i.e., attack Iran) sometime over the next 10 days. Now, this could be another way for the U.S. to apply negotiating pressure on Iran, or it could be a signal of the U.S. going to war with Iran, or both. In the meantime, oil prices are up about 6% over the past 48 hours. Are oil prices about to take off? Possibly. They're trading near a major "make or break" point. And price action in the coming days and weeks could say a lot about which direction they go. As DailyWealth Trader Editor Chris Igou wrote last week, oil prices have been stuck in a technical trading "range" for three years... Range-bound assets bounce back and forth within a predictable price channel. Often, this channel appears during a longer-term price move. Range-bound trading reflects an indecisive market. Bears and bulls are negotiating fair prices for oil... and the price is bouncing between two levels as this negotiation plays out. You can see oil's range-bound trading in the chart below... 
Chris noted that the top end of oil's channel sits at about $70 for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate ("WTI"), the U.S. benchmark. Should the price of WTI break higher, it would "act as strong confirmation that the bulls have won the day and oil is going higher." I suspect the outcome of U.S.-Iran talks will have something to do with which direction prices ultimately move. But for now, there's too much uncertainty to put money on it either way. As Chris put it, "We'll be ready to make a trade as soon as the green light appears." DailyWealth Trader subscribers and Stansberry Alliance members can find his entire analysis here. More opportunity from misery... As we mentioned in Tuesday's edition, when we shared Stansberry Venture Value Editor Bryan Beach's analysis of the "SaaSpocalypse," panic in the market can create opportunities. Bryan wrote in his latest Venture Value issue that the sharp sell-off in software and other stocks due to recent AI developments "contains elements of fear-driven, reflexive selling that's disconnected from fundamentals." Stansberry Research Senior Analyst Brett Eversole highlighted in the True Wealth Systems Market Extremes issue yesterday that all this fear could be creating an appetizing setup in the long term. As Brett began... Artificial intelligence ("AI") has been the driving force behind today's bull market. But in recent weeks, that force has shifted from excitement to destruction. New AI tools are putting once "disruption-proof" businesses on the chopping block. And that has triggered sharp sell-offs across the market. First, it was software companies. Then, financial-services stocks took a hit. And now, just about every data-and-analytics business is crashing. Brett analyzed the shares of two analytics companies that have hit "oversold" conditions... and whose history suggests they could be due for "major outperformance" in the year ahead. Past similar circumstances for these two companies have led to average gains of 39% and roughly 25%, respectively, over the next year. Brett explains more about this setup and another "changing of the guard" in the market in this week's issue of Market Extremes. True Wealth Systems subscribers and Alliance members can find it here. I know pushing past fear can be tough. And sure, AI might change the world and render many businesses and jobs useless. But maybe it won't be that bad. In any case, buying something when "everyone else" is fearful can be profitable.
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New 52-week highs (as of 2/18/26): Applied Materials (AMAT), ASML (ASML), Atmus Filtration Technologies (ATMU), CBOE Global Markets (CBOE), Ciena (CIEN), Coca-Cola Consolidated (COKE), Western Asset Emerging Markets Debt Fund (EMD), Cambria Emerging Shareholder Yield Fund (EYLD), FirstCash (FCFS), Freehold Royalties (FRU.TO), Linde (LIN), Monster Beverage (MNST), New York Times (NYT), Plains All American Pipeline (PAA), Invesco Oil & Gas Services Fund (PXJ), Ryder System (R), Robo Global Robotics and Automation Index Fund (ROBO), SandRidge Energy (SD), Solstice Advanced Materials (SOLS), Tenaris (TS), Twist Bioscience (TWST), and Vanguard FTSE Europe Fund (VGK). In today's mailbag, feedback on yesterday's Digest about AI's "power grab" being ahead of schedule... and an Alliance member shares a few interesting AI predictions... Do you have a comment or question? As always, e-mail us at feedback@stansberryresearch.com. "Hi Corey, I find it interesting how differently AI's energy demand is being treated compared to that of the bitcoin network. One is viewed as a sign of progress and an investment opportunity, while the other was frequently described as a major environmental threat. "This stands in stark contrast to the reception crypto received in the U.S. back in 2019 when I joined Eric at Crypto Capital. It's been a great ride." – Subscriber Pedro R. "Prediction: In the next three months there will be a huge, public failure of a business (significant miss on quarterly revenue or worse) due to failed AI handling of a critical decision. It might be automated trading run wild, or a contractual error, or something else unexpected... "I also think Meta will suffer measurable impairment in the next 6-12 months because AI content is overwhelming their content, and it kills two key aspects of Facebook. It removes personal connections to real humans (or makes it too hard to discern). It removes the sense of wonder you get when seeing some cool video or story about something when you pretty much have to assume it is fake, and the cooler / more interesting it is the more likely it's fake. "There is also a proliferation of scam advertising on Facebook [that] increasingly make the legitimate advertisements 'not worth looking for'. I don't want to have to start every conversation with a potential online transaction with 20 questions to try and see if it's a legit/real business behind the offer. I don't see why they don't aggressively block or weed out that stuff, but it's far too much of the advertising on their platform." – Stansberry Alliance member John W. All the best, Corey McLaughlin with Nick Koziol
Baltimore, Maryland
February 19, 2026
Stansberry Research Top 10 Open Recommendations Top 10 highest-returning open stock positions across all Stansberry Research portfolios. Returns represent the total return from the initial recommendation. | Investment | Buy Date | Return | Publication | Analyst | MSFT
Microsoft | 11/11/10 | 1,344.0% | Retirement Millionaire | Doc | MSFT
Microsoft | 02/10/12 | 1,286.8% | Stansberry's Investment Advisory | Porter | ADP
Automatic Data Processing | 10/09/08 | 830.9% | Extreme Value | Ferris | BRK.B
Berkshire Hathaway | 04/01/09 | 789.0% | Retirement Millionaire | Doc | WRB
W.R. Berkley | 03/15/12 | 656.7% | Stansberry's Investment Advisory | Porter | GOOGL
Alphabet | 12/15/16 | 647.5% | Retirement Millionaire | Doc | CIEN
Ciena | 10/20/22 | 575.2% | Stansberry Innovations Report | Engel | HSY
Hershey | 12/07/07 | 572.6% | Stansberry's Investment Advisory | Porter | ALS-T
Altius Minerals | 03/26/09 | 572.1% | Extreme Value | Ferris | SII
Sprott | 01/11/18 | 569.4% | Extreme Value | Ferris | Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 10 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the model portfolio of any Stansberry Research publication. The buy date reflects when the editor recommended the investment in the listed publication, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if a security is still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber to that publication and refer to the most recent portfolio.
| Top 10 Totals | | 3 | Extreme Value | Ferris | | 3 | Retirement Millionaire | Doc | | 3 | Stansberry's Investment Advisory | Porter | | 1 | Stansberry Innovations Report | Engel |
Top 5 Crypto Capital Open Recommendations Top 5 highest-returning open positions in the Crypto Capital model portfolio | Investment | Buy Date | Return | Publication | Analyst | BTC/USD
Bitcoin | 11/27/18 | 1,668.2% | Crypto Capital | Wade | WSTETH/USD
Wrapped Staked Ethereum | 12/07/18 | 1,642.1% | Crypto Capital | Wade | ONE/USD
Harmony | 12/16/19 | 1,011.1% | Crypto Capital | Wade | QRL/USD
Quantum Resistant Ledger | 01/19/21 | 703.4% | Crypto Capital | Wade | POL/USD
Polygon | 02/26/21 | 645.5% | Crypto Capital | Wade | Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 5 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the Crypto Capital model portfolio. The buy date reflects when the recommendation was made, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if it's still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber and refer to the most recent portfolio.
Stansberry Research Hall of Fame Top 10 all-time, highest-returning closed positions across all Stansberry portfolios | Investment | Duration | Gain | Publication | Analyst | | Nvidia (NVDA)^* | 5.96 years | 1,466% | Venture Tech. | Lashmet | | Microsoft (MSFT)^ | 12.74 years | 1,185% | Retirement Millionaire | Doc | | Inovio Pharma. (INO)^ | 1.01 years | 1,139% | Venture Tech. | Lashmet | | Rocket Lab (RKLB)^ | 2.35 years | 1,034% | Venture Tech. | Lashmet | | Seabridge Gold (SA)^ | 4.20 years | 995% | Sjug Conf. | Sjuggerud | | Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B)^ | 16.13 years | 800% | Retirement Millionaire | Doc | | Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) | 1.95 years | 775% | Amer. Moonshots | Root | | Rite Aid 8.5% bond | 4.97 years | 773% | True Income | Williams | | PNC Warrants (PNC-WS) | 6.16 years | 706% | True Wealth Systems | Sjuggerud | | Maxar Technologies (MAXR)^ | 1.90 years | 691% | Venture Tech. | Lashmet | ^ These gains occurred with a partial position in the respective stocks.
* Editor Dave Lashmet closed the first leg of this Nvidia position in November 2016 for a gain of about 108%. Then, he closed the second leg in July 2020 for a 777% return. And finally, in May 2022, he booked a 1,466% return on the final leg. Subscribers who followed his advice on Nvidia could've recorded a total weighted average gain of more than 600%.
Stansberry Research Crypto Hall of Fame Top 5 highest-returning closed positions in the Crypto Capital model portfolio | Investment | Duration | Gain | Publication | Analyst | | Band Protocol (BAND) | 0.31 years | 1,169% | Crypto Capital | Wade | | Terra (LUNA) | 0.41 years | 1,166% | Crypto Capital | Wade | | Polymesh (POLYX) | 3.84 years | 1,157% | Crypto Capital | Wade | | Frontier (FRONT) | 0.09 years | 979% | Crypto Capital | Wade | | Binance Coin (BNB) | 1.78 years | 963% | Crypto Capital | Wade | | 
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