I just finished reading the latest notes from JPMorgan's global markets strategist, Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou. If you've been watching your portfolio lately, you know we're in the middle of a serious shift. | For the last year, Bitcoin and Gold have been in a heavyweight fight for the title of ultimate hedge. But as we sit here in February 2026, the scoreboard looks a little different from what many expected. | The 2025 Retrospective - A Tale of Two Hedges | If 2025 were a race, Gold didn't just win, it lapped the field with ease. | Gold's Superstar Year - Gold was the superstar asset of 2025, delivering a massive +55.2% return. It became the safest and best-performing major asset class as investors fled to physical safety amid global macro uncertainty. Bitcoin's Reality Check - For the first time in its history, Bitcoin actually finished 2025 as the worst-performing major asset, ending the year down roughly -1.2%. After hitting an all-time high of $126,000 in October 2025, the digital gold narrative hit a wall of profit-taking and institutional outflows.
| The Recent Pullback - Buying the Fear | Both assets have taken a hit recently. As of this week, we've seen a broad risk-off move. | The Dip - Bitcoin has plunged over 40% from its October peak, according to Bloomberg. On Thursday morning, it briefly slid below $70,000. Gold's Cooling Period - Even the yellow metal hasn't been immune, pulling back from its recent highs near $5,500 to around $4,600 as traders bank their 2025 profits.
| JP Morgan's Contrarian Call - Why Bitcoin is the Better Buy Now | Here's where it gets interesting. Despite the recent crash, JPMorgan is making a bold, contrarian call. Panigirtzoglou argues that because Gold has surged so high and Bitcoin has fallen so far, the volatility-adjusted value of Bitcoin is now incredibly attractive. | JPMorgan's math suggests that for Bitcoin to truly match the private sector's investment in gold (currently around $8 trillion), Bitcoin's price would need to hit $266,000. While they admit that's a long-term target, they've flagged a fair value of roughly $170,000 once the current negative sentiment clears. | Is the 4-Year Cycle Still Alive? | The big debate in 2026 is whether Bitcoin's famous 4-year cycle is dead. | The Cycle is Intact View - Some analysts point to the current 40% drawdown as a classic post-halving correction, mirroring the pain seen in 2018 and 2022. The Bitcoin Maturation View - Others, like Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan, suggest we are in a full-blown crypto winter that was only masked by institutional ETF flows last year.
| As prominent on-chain analyst James Check (@Checkmatey) recently noted to his followers:
| | My Final Thoughts | This data reflects investor psychology. When people are scared, they run to what they can touch (Gold). When they are greedy, they run to what they can't have (Bitcoin). | JPMorgan is essentially saying the fear has made Bitcoin a bargain compared to the overcrowded gold trade. If you're looking at the long game, $70,000 Bitcoin might look like a gift by the time we hit 2027. But remember, in this market, patience isn't just a virtue, it's a survival strategy. | As always, these are just my thoughts and not financial advice. |
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| | This article is for informational purposes only. It should not be considered Financial or Legal Advice. Not all information will be accurate. Consult a financial professional before making any significant financial decisions. |
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