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How to Survive a K-Shaped Economy



Flat spending, rising prices, and more job searches... A bleak picture... How to survive a K-shaped economy... A few of our recent recommendations... Stansberry Investor Hour: Trade options like a pro...
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Flat spending, rising prices, and more job searches... A bleak picture... How to survive a K-shaped economy... A few of our recent recommendations... Stansberry Investor Hour: Trade options like a pro...


Bah, humbug (again)...

In December, we wrote to you about some concerning spending patterns early in the holiday shopping season... and about the increasing number of job cuts in 2025, the highest number since the pandemic layoffs in 2020.

Today, a final bit of 2025 economic data continues to paint a picture of (at the least) a stagnant U.S. economy.

Consumer spending, in many ways the heartbeat of the U.S. economy, significantly slowed by the end of December.

Retail sales data from the Commerce Department published today showed flat growth for the month of December, down from 0.6% growth in November... and way off Wall Street consensus expectations for a 0.4% increase.

Sales were still up 2.4% year-over-year compared with December 2024, but inflation continues to run close to an "official" 3% clip. And to the average consumer, prices seem to be rising a lot more significantly.

Less spending amid higher prices is a bad combination.

The job market is brutal now, too...

According to DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe, Google Trends search volumes for "find job," "new job," and "part time job" are all near 20-year highs. In other words, Americans are searching for jobs online more than they did in the Great Recession.

If layoffs rise (for AI or other reasons), those losing their jobs will be stepping into a labor market where people are already having trouble finding new work. So the unemployment rate could keep rising.

Tomorrow, we'll get another signal about the jobs market when the U.S. government reports January's "nonfarm payrolls" – complete with an updated unemployment rate. This data was delayed because of the partial government shutdown earlier this month.

Wall Street is expecting an increase of around 55,000 jobs for January. We shall see.

In other bad news, those at the lower end of the economy are falling further behind...

We've written extensively in these pages about the growing wealth gap and "K-shaped economy" in the U.S., along with what's at the heart of it – like the continued devaluation of the U.S dollar. Here's what we wrote back in a 2023 Digest...

[We] want to draw your attention most to the trend among the richest 1% and the group that makes up the top 50% to 90th percentile, which is roughly the middle class.

The richest of the rich are the only group that has gotten richer in the past 30 or so years... and most everyone else has gotten relatively poorer, especially the middle class.

The big point is the richest people in this country have been increasingly getting a larger share of our wealth pie for decades... while most Americans have been largely unable to keep pace.

Over the past few years, the two forks of the letter K haven't changed direction.

Data published in November from the Dallas Federal Reserve shows the top 20% of U.S. households now make up almost 60% of U.S. consumer spending. Meanwhile, the lower end of the economy is struggling.

Just today, the New York Fed's quarterly credit report showed that the rate of credit card balances more than 90 days delinquent is up to 12.7%. That's the highest percentage since the first quarter of 2011. Auto loan delinquencies are above 5% – their highest level since 2010.

Times like these have been dangerous throughout history...

As we wrote in that same 2023 Digest...

When the gap between the rich and the poor is large and continuing to grow, an unexpected, panic-inducing event – like say, a pandemic – can spark major age-old stories and trends of violence, political and financial upheaval, or even war.

For instance, it started with the creation of the Federal Reserve in 1913, in the wake of the Panic of 1907... After that, most Americans saw their wages fall in half.

It happened in 1933 after newly elected President Franklin D. Roosevelt passed an executive order to restrict gold ownership. Almost every American saw the value of their savings and wages fall immediately by around 30% – setting off the worst aspects of the Great Depression and leading to violent insurrections in Washington.

It also happened in 1971, when the U.S. dollar came off the gold standard. This began the financial crisis of the 1970s, which lasted a decade and spawned domestic terrorism across the country. It's also when wage growth began to seriously lag productivity gains.

Then there was the pandemic and government response.

Today, it's not hard to imagine a scenario where Americans "rage against the AI machines," for taking and/or shaking up jobs... or for the government to come up with ways to "fix" the economy, which promise to make things better but actually end up causing more harm.

The elixir to these ills...

Simply put, own assets.

As Stansberry Research senior analyst Brett Eversole wrote this morning in the free DailyWealth e-letter...

Folks in the higher-income portion of the economy are doing incredibly well. They've seen their wages rise. And more important, their assets have grown. These folks are much better off today than they were five years ago.

Lower-income Americans have experienced the opposite. Their wages haven't grown as fast. They haven't benefited from the stock market boom. And inflation crushed them during the post-pandemic era.

Most people believe the K-shaped economy is an income-disparity problem... They say that some people make a lot while others don't make enough. That's a compelling idea politically – but it doesn't explain what's happening.

In America, we're seeing a K-shaped economy for a single reason...

One group of Americans owns assets... and the other group doesn't.

We suggest you and your loved ones be part of the first group. And there are many ways to own assets depending on your goals. Brett wrote about one opportunity today in his DailyWealth e-letter titled "The Most Important Thing You Can Do for Your Kids (and Grandkids) in 2026."

Here are a few more ideas...

Last week, Brett wrote in True Wealth Systems about the "smart" way to profit from the dollar's debasement. Existing subscribers and Stansberry Alliance members can find his entire analysis and recommendation here.

Meanwhile, Dan Ferris wrote in Extreme Value about buying shares of a "fantastic business... that's indispensable to America's defense." It's currently trading at an "attractive price," which isn't exactly an easy thing to find these days. Extreme Value subscribers and Alliance members can find that issue here.

And just yesterday, Whitney Tilson and our Commodity Supercycles team recommended a company that could deliver triple-digit gains in a trend we've frequently written about: nuclear energy and what it takes to produce it. Existing Commodity Supercycles subscribers and Alliance members can read more here.

These are just a few recommendations from our team over the past few trading days.

Our Stansberry Research editors and analysts will continue to bring you ideas and guidance about these investments that you can put into action yourself, and we'll keep highlighting them here.

If you're looking for another great place to get actionable advice, give our flagship Stansberry's Investment Advisory a try.

In short, if you don't want to drift behind in this K-shaped economy, you must take control of your own wealth. Nobody else, certainly not the government, will look out for your money like you can.

On this week's episode of Stansberry Investor Hour, Jeff Clark shares core strategies about trading options... details some of his personal successful methods... and highlights a common mistake investors make.

Click here to watch the episode on our YouTube page... or listen on our website or wherever you listen to podcasts, like Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or Audible. Just search "Stansberry Investor Hour" and subscribe to get more episodes when they go live.


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New 52-week highs (as of 2/9/26): ABB (ABBNY), Antero Midstream (AM), Atmus Filtration Technologies (ATMU), Alpha Architect 1-3 Month Box Fund (BOXX), BP (BP), Brady (BRC), CBOE Global Markets (CBOE), Century Aluminum (CENX), Ciena (CIEN), CME Group (CME), Cisco Systems (CSCO), Chevron (CVX), iMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy Fund (DBMF), Donaldson (DCI), WisdomTree Japan SmallCap Dividend Fund (DFJ), DXP Enterprises (DXPE), Western Asset Emerging Markets Debt Fund (EMD), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ex China Fund (EMXC), Enel (ENLAY), iShares MSCI Germany Fund (EWG), iShares MSCI Italy Fund (EWI), iShares MSCI Spain Fund (EWP), iShares MSCI South Korea Fund (EWY), Cambria Emerging Shareholder Yield Fund (EYLD), Fanuc (FANUY), FirstCash (FCFS), State Street SPDR Euro STOXX 50 Fund (FEZ), Comfort Systems USA (FIX), Franklin FTSE Japan Fund (FLJP), Cambria Foreign Shareholder Yield Fund (FYLD), GE Vernova (GEV), Hubbell (HUBB), KraneShares MSCI Emerging Markets ex China Index Fund (KEMX), Kinder Morgan (KMI), Lumentum (LITE), Lockheed Martin (LMT), Magnolia Oil & Gas (MGY), Marathon Petroleum (MPC), Natural Resource Partners (NRP), Nucor (NUE), Novartis (NVS), Nexstar Media (NXST), Pembina Pipeline (PBA), Invesco Oil & Gas Services Fund (PXJ), Robo Global Robotics and Automation Index Fund (ROBO), Roivant Sciences (ROIV), SandRidge Energy (SD), Tenaris (TS), Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM), Valaris (VAL), Vanguard FTSE Europe Fund (VGK), Telefônica Brasil (VIV), State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE), State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLI), and ExxonMobil (XOM).

In today's mailbag, a Q&A about trading silver funds... Do you have a comment or question? As always, e-mail us at feedback@stansberryresearch.com.

"Dear Corey, Given the recent excitement around the parabolic move in spot silver prices, I thought it would be a great time for you to review the mathematical dynamics of a fund like SLV [iShares Silver Trust]. You could also highlight AGQ [ProShares Ultra Silver].

"Since weekly realized vol was consistently higher for four straight weeks, what does that do to the cost of futures contracts? How might that affect the price of SLV going forward over the next few months? Concurrently, how will that affect the price of AGQ?

"I think this is certainly a buyer beware moment for these particular types of products; especially with other commodities seeming to make similar outsized moves." – Subscriber B.R.

Corey McLaughlin comment: B.R., I shared your note with two of our analysts, DailyWealth Trader editor Chris Igou and Ten Stock Trader editor Greg Diamond, who regularly make and track trades in the funds you're talking about.

As they both explained, SLV tracks the spot prices of silver, not futures. And it holds physical silver contracts. So the fund isn't directly subject to influences of volatility and the futures market like some other funds might be. As Chris said...

The tracking error on demand for SLV is relatively small. The shares mainly represent a fractional share of silver bullion held in a vault. Look at the one-year chart of SLV versus the price of silver. It tracks it pretty much perfectly.

Now, AGQ does use futures contracts and is a twice-leveraged silver fund, meaning it will be more volatile on the way up and down. It's a riskier bet on the price of silver, but it is also designed to be held for very short periods of time. Chris also said...

I don't have any back testing on what happens when AGQ's volume is up four weeks in a row. But I'd echo that this is a buyer beware moment. My headline for February 3 was, "Don't Buy the Silver Crash For Now."

These drops are extremely unpredictable. If silver's rally is over, it could drop to $50 an ounce within another week or two. If this is just a freeze after the massive run up in 2025 and early 2026, the volatility will settle in the coming weeks to months.

In other words, how silver behaves over the next two weeks could provide clarity about its likelier longer-term direction. Stay tuned to Chris and Greg's updates and instructions as they continue to track and trade silver and other assets in their advisories.

All the best,

Corey McLaughlin with Nick Koziol
Baltimore, Maryland
February 10, 2026


Stansberry Research Top 10 Open Recommendations

Top 10 highest-returning open stock positions across all Stansberry Research portfolios. Returns represent the total return from the initial recommendation.

Investment Buy Date Return Publication Analyst
MSFT
Microsoft
11/11/10 1,370.2% Retirement Millionaire Doc
MSFT
Microsoft
02/10/12 1,332.3% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter
ADP
Automatic Data Processing
10/09/08 861.7% Extreme Value Ferris
BRK.B
Berkshire Hathaway
04/01/09 788.1% Retirement Millionaire Doc
GOOGL
Alphabet
12/15/16 699.0% Retirement Millionaire Doc
WRB
W.R. Berkley
03/15/12 642.1% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter
HSY
Hershey
12/07/07 590.0% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter
ALS-T
Altius Minerals
03/26/09 576.8% Extreme Value Ferris
SII
Sprott
01/11/18 562.6% Extreme Value Ferris
CIEN
Ciena
10/20/22 549.2% Stansberry Innovations Report Engel

Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 10 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the model portfolio of any Stansberry Research publication. The buy date reflects when the editor recommended the investment in the listed publication, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if a security is still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber to that publication and refer to the most recent portfolio.


Top 10 Totals
3 Extreme Value Ferris
3 Retirement Millionaire Doc
3 Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter
1 Stansberry Innovations Report Engel

Top 5 Crypto Capital Open Recommendations

Top 5 highest-returning open positions in the Crypto Capital model portfolio

Investment Buy Date Return Publication Analyst
BTC/USD
Bitcoin
11/27/18 1,765.1% Crypto Capital Wade
WSTETH/USD
Wrapped Staked Ethereum
12/07/18 1,736.6% Crypto Capital Wade
ONE/USD
Harmony
12/16/19 1,012.3% Crypto Capital Wade
QRL/USD
Quantum Resistant Ledger
01/19/21 755.5% Crypto Capital Wade
POL/USD
Polygon
02/26/21 641.8% Crypto Capital Wade

Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 5 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the Crypto Capital model portfolio. The buy date reflects when the recommendation was made, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if it's still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber and refer to the most recent portfolio.


Stansberry Research Hall of Fame

Top 10 all-time, highest-returning closed positions across all Stansberry portfolios

Investment Duration Gain Publication Analyst
Nvidia (NVDA)^* 5.96 years 1,466% Venture Tech. Lashmet
Microsoft (MSFT)^ 12.74 years 1,185% Retirement Millionaire Doc
Inovio Pharma. (INO)^ 1.01 years 1,139% Venture Tech. Lashmet
Rocket Lab (RKLB)^ 2.35 years 1,034% Venture Tech. Lashmet
Seabridge Gold (SA)^ 4.20 years 995% Sjug Conf. Sjuggerud
Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B)^ 16.13 years 800% Retirement Millionaire Doc
Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) 1.95 years 775% Amer. Moonshots Root
Rite Aid 8.5% bond 4.97 years 773% True Income Williams
PNC Warrants (PNC-WS) 6.16 years 706% True Wealth Systems Sjuggerud
Maxar Technologies (MAXR)^ 1.90 years 691% Venture Tech. Lashmet

^ These gains occurred with a partial position in the respective stocks.
* Editor Dave Lashmet closed the first leg of this Nvidia position in November 2016 for a gain of about 108%. Then, he closed the second leg in July 2020 for a 777% return. And finally, in May 2022, he booked a 1,466% return on the final leg. Subscribers who followed his advice on Nvidia could've recorded a total weighted average gain of more than 600%.


Stansberry Research Crypto Hall of Fame

Top 5 highest-returning closed positions in the Crypto Capital model portfolio

Investment Duration Gain Publication Analyst
Band Protocol (BAND) 0.31 years 1,169% Crypto Capital Wade
Terra (LUNA) 0.41 years 1,166% Crypto Capital Wade
Polymesh (POLYX) 3.84 years 1,157% Crypto Capital Wade
Frontier (FRONT) 0.09 years 979% Crypto Capital Wade
Binance Coin (BNB) 1.78 years 963% Crypto Capital Wade

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