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FEATURED ARTICLE |
The Mag 7's Energy Spending Spree |
If you want the simplest explanation for why "AI stocks" stopped being a pure hype story and became a real-economy story, it's this: |
The bottleneck is no longer ideas. It's electrons. |
Training and running modern AI models requires vast fleets of GPUs, densely packed into data centers that draw power like small cities. That power has to be generated, delivered, cooled, and backed up—at a pace that's running ahead of traditional grid planning cycles. |
That's why the Magnificent 7 aren't just spending on chips and servers. They're effectively co-investing in the energy system: signing long-duration power contracts, backing nuclear restarts and advanced reactors, contracting gigawatts of renewables, and pushing power-and-cooling supply chains to expand faster than they've ever had to. |
This is your Cheap Investor edge: Most investors are still thinking "AI = software winners." |
The market's next phase is closer to: AI = infrastructure winners (power, cooling, grid, and the companies that can deliver them reliably). |
Let's walk through the hard numbers, what each Mag 7 is doing, and the under-the-radar partners that could quietly get rich building the AI grid. |
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The macro reality: AI's energy demand is becoming system-level |
Here are the numbers that matter when you're trying to separate "trend" from "structural shift": |
The IEA projects global electricity consumption for data centers could roughly double to ~945 TWh by 2030 in its base case—growing about ~15% per year from 2024 to 2030, far faster than total electricity demand growth. In the U.S., data centers have already become a meaningful slice of consumption; Pew notes data centers were about 4% of U.S. electricity use in 2024, with demand expected to more than double by 2030.
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That's why we're seeing "AI capex" stop being measured in billions and start being measured in hundreds of billions. |
Reuters has framed the market's anxiety clearly: a planned ~$600B spending surge by big tech in 2026 is fueling investor unease about profitability and the returns on this infrastructure buildout. |
So yes—AI is bullish for a lot of companies. But the second-order opportunity is: who gets paid to solve the energy constraint? |
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The money: the AI infrastructure arms race is now capex-guided |
The market isn't guessing anymore. Companies are telling you what they're about to spend. |
Meta guided 2026 capex (including finance leases) in the range of $115B–$135B. Alphabet told investors capex could as much as double this year as it pushes past compute constraints in the AI race. Amazon projected roughly $200B in 2026 capex, up from $131B in 2025, with much of it tied to AWS and AI infrastructure. Microsoft reported quarterly capital spending of $37.5B, up nearly 66% YoY, with about two-thirds going toward computing chips.
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When spending gets that large, electricity becomes a board-level strategy—not a facilities problem. |
Now let's go company by company. |
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The Magnificent 7: how each one is "buying" energy capacity |
1) Microsoft: the "contract the grid" strategy |
Microsoft is moving fastest on the clean-power contracting side—because it has to. AI compute scale-ups don't wait for utility timelines. |
The key numbers: |
Reuters reports Microsoft has contracted 40 gigawatts of new renewable energy supply, with 19 gigawatts already added to the grid, spanning 26 countries. Microsoft's capex intensity is already visible: the company posted $37.5B in capital spending in the quarter cited by Reuters, up nearly 66% YoY, with about two-thirds going to computing chips.
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The nuclear move (the "base-load cheat code"): Microsoft's most eye-catching energy move is the Constellation partnership tied to restarting the former Three Mile Island Unit 1, adding about 835 MW of carbon-free power, via a long-term PPA. AP later reported the U.S. DOE announced a $1B loan to support the restart, with the project estimated around $1.6B, backed by a 20-year PPA with Microsoft. |
Cheap Investor takeaway: Microsoft is treating energy like a supply chain. It's trying to lock in long-duration, scalable supply so it can keep building data centers without hitting local grid walls. |
"Underlying" partners to watch (Microsoft-adjacent): |
Constellation Energy (nuclear + PPAs) Renewable developers/utilities that sign long-term PPAs (the "quiet toll collectors" in energy buildouts) Data-center operators that provide powered capacity: Reuters reported a Microsoft contract with IREN for Nvidia chips, noting IREN's capacity and renewable-powered sites (a reminder that "power-ready" real estate is strategic).
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2) Alphabet (Google): the "24/7 carbon-free + advanced nuclear" strategy |
Google's strategy is distinct: it's been the long-time leader in buying renewables—but now it's pushing into hourly matching (24/7 carbon-free energy), which is much harder than annual offsetting. |
The "clean energy scale" numbers: |
Google says since 2010 it has signed agreements to purchase more than 22 GW of clean energy and invested over $3.7B in clean energy projects and partnerships. Google's 24/7 carbon-free energy initiative outlines the shift from annual matching to the tougher goal of hourly matching, which pushes more demand for storage, firm power, and grid modernization.
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The advanced nuclear angle: The Financial Times reported a landmark agreement involving Google, Kairos Power, and TVA, including a 50 MW reactor supplying TVA (which services Google data centers regionally), and framing it within a broader 500 MW collaboration between Google and Kairos. |
Capex pressure: Reuters reported Alphabet said its capital expenditures could as much as double, as it deepens investments to address compute constraints and stay competitive in AI. |
Cheap Investor takeaway: Google is trying to solve power on three layers at once: |
buy massive renewables, add "firm" clean power (nuclear, long-duration storage), and optimize where workloads run (data center design + carbon-aware location decisions).
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Underlying partners to watch (Google-adjacent): |
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3) Amazon: the "AWS scale + nuclear options" strategy |
Amazon is spending at a pace that shocked investors—and that's saying something in 2026. |
The capex shock: Reuters: Amazon projected $200B in 2026 capex, up from $131B in 2025, tied to an AI infrastructure spree and AWS capacity needs. |
Why energy matters specifically for AWS: AWS growth is constrained by how fast Amazon can bring powered capacity online. In practical terms: land and buildings aren't the bottleneck—grid interconnection and power delivery are. |
Amazon's nuclear bets: |
Amazon anchored a ~$500M financing round for X-energy to support advanced SMR development, licensing, and fuel fabrication (Oak Ridge, Tennessee). Amazon also discussed SMR development efforts and an advanced nuclear facility plan in Washington state as part of its carbon-free energy strategy. Energy Northwest described plans with Amazon to develop advanced nuclear technology in Washington (initial feasibility phase funding).
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Cheap Investor takeaway: Amazon's advantage is scale and speed. If it can secure power faster than peers, it can sell compute into a market where "available GPU capacity" is basically a currency. |
Underlying partners to watch (Amazon-adjacent): |
X-energy and nuclear fuel supply chain (a "picks and shovels" inside the reactor story) Regional utilities and public power entities (like Energy Northwest) that can greenlight generation near load Data center construction + electrical gear supply chains (more on those in the "who gets paid" section)
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4) Meta: the "superintelligence capex spike + firm power" strategy |
Meta's story is simple: it's spending like a country—and telling you it's fine. |
The number you should memorize: Meta guided 2026 capex (including finance leases) to $115B–$135B. |
That scale implies: |
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The nuclear deal trend: The Guardian reported Meta signed a 20-year agreement with Constellation tied to the Clinton Clean Energy Center (Illinois), a 1,121 MW plant, including support to keep operations running after state subsidy programs end and to support relicensing/expansion. |
Hardware tie-in: The Financial Times reported Meta entered a multibillion-dollar, multi-year agreement to buy millions of Nvidia chips, aligning with its plan to scale AI infrastructure. |
Cheap Investor takeaway: Meta is trying to do two things: |
buy the "brains" (Nvidia scale), and buy the "heart" (steady power) so the brains can run 24/7.
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Underlying partners to watch (Meta-adjacent): |
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5) Apple: the "supply-chain energy" strategy (less data center, more manufacturing power) |
Apple is the outlier in this discussion because it isn't primarily monetizing AI through hyperscale cloud infrastructure in the same way. But Apple absolutely sits in the energy story—through its supply chain and the "device AI" push that shifts inference toward the edge. |
The key Apple energy number: Apple says its suppliers sourced nearly 18 GW of renewable energy in 2024, avoiding nearly 22 million metric tons of greenhouse gas emissions. |
This matters because: |
device manufacturing is energy intensive, and Apple's strategy is increasingly about shifting AI workloads to efficient silicon (on-device inference), which reduces cloud inference load at the margin.
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Cheap Investor takeaway: Apple is "investing in AI energy" indirectly: it's pushing efficiency through silicon and decarbonizing the supply chain so it can grow without becoming the villain of grid headlines. |
Underlying partners to watch (Apple-adjacent): |
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(Apple's partner web is enormous, but the investable energy linkage is generally "industrial electrification" rather than "data-center grid capture.") |
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6) Nvidia: the "make compute more energy-efficient" strategy |
Nvidia is not a utility buyer like Microsoft or Amazon. Nvidia's core role is: make AI compute more efficient per watt, because power is now the limiting factor. |
Nvidia itself has been emphasizing performance-per-watt improvements and energy efficiency in modern data centers: |
Nvidia has highlighted large performance-per-watt gains for Grace CPU vs alternatives, describing up to 3x higher performance per watt across key data analytics and HPC workloads in a two-socket system comparison. Nvidia has also framed GPUs as significantly more energy-efficient than traditional CPUs for certain workloads, in the context of data center efficiency.
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Why this matters for investors: If power becomes scarcer relative to compute demand, the "winner" hardware isn't just fastest—it's fastest within power constraints, and easiest to cool and deploy. |
Underlying partners to watch (Nvidia-adjacent): |
Cooling and power infrastructure suppliers that enable dense GPU clusters Data-center electrical equipment makers that can ship faster than competitors (again, see Vertiv/Eaton in a moment)
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7) Tesla: the "storage that makes renewables usable" strategy |
Tesla's AI story usually gets framed as autonomy and Dojo. But in the energy discussion, Tesla is increasingly a grid-scale storage supplier, and storage is essential for AI-era power stability—especially as data centers demand steadier load while grids add more intermittent renewables. |
Concrete Tesla energy numbers: |
Tesla deployed 46.7 GWh of energy storage in 2025, up 49% YoY, according to energy-sector reporting. Reporting notes Megapack factories with large annual capacity and expansion plans, with a new Texas facility described as targeting up to 50 GWh annual manufacturing capacity.
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Cheap Investor takeaway: In an AI-heavy grid, storage is not a "nice-to-have." It's what turns renewable PPAs into reliable power availability and helps stabilize peak demand. |
Tesla Energy may never get the same valuation multiple as the flashiest software names, but it sits directly in the infrastructure line-of-fire. |
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The "who gets paid" list: the under-the-radar partners building the AI energy stack |
Now we get to the fun part, bargain hunter. The Mag 7 can sign contracts and announce capex. But the real question is: |
Which publicly traded companies have the factories, backlogs, and execution capacity to deliver power + cooling + grid gear at scale? |
Here are the categories that are quietly turning into AI-era toll roads. |
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A) Power distribution and electrical gear: the "grid picks-and-shovels" winners |
Eaton: data-center momentum and backlog expansion |
Eaton is a prime example of "boring that prints money," because electrification is the constraint. |
Eaton reported: |
record Q4 2025 results, "data center momentum" as a driver in Electrical Americas, and 29% year-over-year backlog growth in its Electrical sector.
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Eaton also made a major acquisition move: Reuters reported Eaton agreed to buy Boyd's thermal business for $9.5B, with Boyd's liquid cooling tech projected to generate $1.7B revenue by 2026, largely from data centers. |
Cheap Investor lens: If AI capex stays high, electrical gear becomes the "capacity choke point." Companies with backlog + margin expansion + the ability to scale manufacturing can get re-rated. |
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B) Cooling and thermal management: the "heat tax" on AI |
AI data centers aren't just power-hungry—they're heat factories. More GPUs per rack means more heat per square foot, which pushes liquid cooling adoption. |
Vertiv: follow the order book, not the hype |
Vertiv is a classic "AI infrastructure derivative." |
Vertiv's own earnings release showed: |
Q4 2025 net sales $2.88B, +23% YoY operating cash flow $1.005B adjusted free cash flow $910M, up sharply year over year
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That's the kind of cash generation that allows supply chain investment and capacity expansion—exactly what the AI buildout demands. |
Cheap Investor lens: Cooling is not optional. If AI infrastructure spending continues, the companies that make the physical deployment possible tend to be paid continuously, not just in product launch cycles. |
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C) "Firm power" providers and nuclear-linked plays |
The hyperscaler power strategy is increasingly about firm clean power, because renewables alone don't solve 24/7 matching. |
We've already covered: |
Microsoft + Constellation and the 835 MW restart PPA framework Meta's nuclear-linked agreement trend (as reported) Google's advanced nuclear pathway via Kairos/TVA Amazon's nuclear investments (X-energy, SMR feasibility)
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Cheap Investor lens: Nuclear is slow and regulated, but it's also one of the few scalable sources of carbon-free baseload power. That's why it keeps showing up in the hyperscaler strategy stack. |
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D) Storage and load balancing |
AI load is steady and massive. Storage and grid balancing become more valuable as load grows. |
Tesla's 2025 storage deployments—46.7 GWh, up 49%—are a reminder that energy storage is scaling quickly. |
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What could go right vs. what could go wrong |
What could go right (the bull case) |
AI demand remains strong, and capacity remains constrained → pricing power for cloud/AI compute persists. The Mag 7 succeeds in securing power and building data centers fast enough → growth stays high even as capex rises. The "picks and shovels" ecosystem benefits from multi-year backlog expansion (electrical, cooling, grid, storage).
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What could go wrong (the bear case) |
AI monetization lags capex, triggering investor backlash and forced capex moderation (which would hit the derivatives: cooling/electrical suppliers). Reuters has already highlighted investor unease about the scale of AI spending. Grid bottlenecks worsen (interconnection queues, transformer shortages, permitting delays), slowing deployment regardless of money spent. Policy and regulatory friction rises (local communities pushing back on data center expansion; energy markets tightening). Efficiency improves faster than expected, reducing marginal power growth (this would be good for hyperscalers, but could cool parts of the infrastructure boom—though the absolute base is still growing).
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The Cheap Investor conclusion: AI's "energy crisis" is also an investment roadmap |
Here's the punchline, bargain hunter: |
The AI boom is not just a software cycle—it's an infrastructure cycle with a power cord. |
And the Mag 7 are telling you, in public numbers, that they're willing to spend extraordinary amounts to win it: |
Microsoft's capex acceleration and renewable contracting scale Meta's $115B–$135B capex guidance Amazon's $200B capex projection Alphabet's capex ramp
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So the smart way to play this isn't "buy anything with AI in the name." |
It's to build a mental model of the stack: |
Compute & efficiency (Nvidia and friends) Power procurement & firm supply (PPAs, nuclear, long-duration storage) Delivery & hardware (electrical gear, transformers, switchgear) Cooling & thermal (the heat tax) Storage (stability and renewables integration)
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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. Always do your own research before making investment decisions. |
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