OPENING THESIS
Washington is running two plays at once on Iran — and Wall Street is front-running both outcomes.
On Tuesday, Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff sit down in Geneva for nuclear talks with Iranian representatives. Oman is mediating. The stated goal: a deal to prevent Iran from going nuclear.
But here is what the media will not tell you about the timing.
SITUATION REPORT
Trump just ordered a second aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East. He told reporters that regime change in Iran could be "the best thing." Netanyahu flew to Washington this week and the two agreed to increase pressure on Iranian oil exports — specifically targeting Chinese purchases of Iranian crude.
This is not diplomacy. This is a squeeze play.
The Geneva talks are a formality. The real message is the carrier groups. Two CVNs in the Persian Gulf region is a posture we have not seen since 2019. The defense industrial base knows exactly what that means.
Patriot Signal: Lockheed Martin (LMT) is up 14% in the last 90 days. Raytheon (RTX) quietly hit 52-week highs. The smart money moved before the carriers did. | | | | | In a bombshell interview, Elon Musk declared that AI and robotics are "the only thing" that can solve America's $38 trillion debt crisis. | He predicts it will happen within three years. | One Wall Street veteran has identified a single fund at the center of this AI buildout - and you can get in for less than $20. | See what Musk didn't tell you >> |
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| | THE REAL STORY
Follow the oil angle. Trump and Netanyahu want to choke Iranian crude off the market entirely. Iran exports roughly 1.5 million barrels per day, mostly to China through shadow tankers. If secondary sanctions tighten — and the carrier groups suggest they will — that supply disappears.
Oil at $62.89 looks cheap if 1.5 million barrels vanish from global supply. But Washington does not actually want oil prices to spike. They want leverage. The threat of enforcement is the weapon.
Meanwhile, the dollar index sits at 96.88 — near multi-year lows. A weaker dollar makes American exports competitive but makes foreign oil more expensive for everyone else. That is not an accident. That is policy.
Patriot Signal: The US Dollar Index (UUP) has been grinding lower all year. A weak dollar plus oil supply disruption is the playbook for forcing Iran to the table — or forcing regime change. Either outcome benefits American energy dominance. | | |
FOLLOW THE MONEY
Here is the part that should make every patriot pay attention.
Kushner is at the Geneva table. The same Kushner who brokered the Abraham Accords. The same Kushner whose investment fund raised $2 billion from Saudi Arabia after leaving office. He is not there as a diplomat. He is there as an architect.
The play is bigger than Iran. It is a restructuring of Middle East power that routes through American defense contractors and American energy companies. Saudi Arabia wants Iran neutralized. Israel wants Iran neutralized. And American arms manufacturers are happy to supply both sides of that demand.
Defense spending is already at $886 billion and climbing. DOGE can cut all the paper clips it wants — the Pentagon budget is untouchable because both parties feed from it.
Patriot Signal: Silver (SLV) surged 3% on Friday to $77.96. When geopolitical risk rises, silver moves with gold but gets none of the headlines. Industrial demand from defense manufacturing adds a floor that gold does not have.
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| | WHAT THEY WON'T TELL YOU | The Geneva talks are scheduled for the same day as Ukraine negotiations. Same city. Same envoys. Witkoff and Kushner are running both tables simultaneously.
This is not a coincidence. It is leverage stacking. Progress on Ukraine gives Trump political capital to be aggressive on Iran. A deal with Iran gives him credibility on the world stage for Ukraine. Each negotiation is a chip at the other table. | The 10-year Treasury yield dropped to 4.06% this week. Money is flowing into safety. The bond market is telling you something the stock market has not priced in yet — that one of these negotiations could fail, and when it does, the consequences will not be theoretical. | | Buffett, Gates and Bezos Quietly Dumping Stocks— Here's Why | The world's wealthiest individuals are making huge moves with their money. | Warren Buffett just liquidated billions of shares. Bill Gates sold 500,000 shares of Microsoft. Jeff Bezos filed to sell Amazon shares worth $4.8 billion. | What is going on? One multi-millionaire believes they are preparing for a catastrophic event. But not a crash, bank run, or recession. It's something we haven't seen in America for more than a century. | For the full story, click here. |
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| | THE BOTTOM LINE | Two carrier groups in the Middle East. Kushner and Witkoff in Geneva. Secondary sanctions on Iranian oil tightening. A weakening dollar by design. Defense stocks at all-time highs.
This is not about preventing war. This is about controlling the terms of what comes next. The question is not whether a deal gets done. The question is who writes the terms — and who profits from the uncertainty in the meantime.
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