Bonus: CNBC: "This Is the Big Market Event of 2026."  ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌

March 10, 2026   |   Read Online SpaceX and the $1.75 Trillion Question: Early Index Entry Genius or a Warning Sign? Bonus: CNBC: "This Is the Big Market Event of 2026." First a message from our friends at Brownstone Research (Sponsor) CNBC: "This Is the Big Market Event of 2026." Editor's Note: As an angel investor, former tech executive Jeff Brown has invested in hundreds of deals involving private companies… With returns as high as 5,344%, 7,367%, and even a mind-blowing 11,011%. Today, he's showing you how to claim a stake in Elon Musk's next big IPO. Click here to see the details or read more below. Dear Reader, CNBC called this new Elon Musk opportunity "the big market event of 2026." The New York Times predicted it "will unleash gushers of cash for Silicon Valley and Wall Street." And Elon Musk is predicting this investment could jump 1,000x higher from here. That turns $100 into $100,000… $500 into half a million dollars… And a tiny stake of $1,000 into $1 million. Simply put… This could be the best investment opportunity of the decade. We have so much to look forward to, Jeff Brown Founder & CEO, Brownstone Research FEATURED ARTICLE SpaceX and the $1.75 Trillion Question: Is Early Index Entry Genius… or a Warning Sign? SpaceX is trying to do two things at once. Go public at a valuation so large it would instantly rank among the biggest companies in America. And get ushered into the index club fast enough that passive money could start buying almost immediately. That is not a small detail. That is the whole game. Reuters reported today that Elon Musk's SpaceX is leaning toward a Nasdaq listing, while also seeking the benefit of a proposed Nasdaq "Fast Entry" rule that could allow newly listed giants to enter the Nasdaq-100 within about 15 trading sessions if they rank among the top 40 constituents by market value. Reuters also reported SpaceX is targeting a valuation of around $1.75 trillion. ns this is no ordinary IPO preview. This is a liquidity engineering story. A valuation story. A passive-flow story. And, because we are Cheap Investor people, it is also a very simple question: At $1.75 trillion, is SpaceX actually cheap enough to justify the hype—or is the market being asked to pre-pay for perfection? Scoreboard: what just happened Here is the fast recap. Reuters reported on March 10 that SpaceX is leaning toward listing on Nasdaq, though the New York Stock Exchange remains under consideration and no final decision has been made. The same report said SpaceX wants early access to the Nasdaq-100, which is one reason Nasdaq is seen as attractive. numbers are enormous: Target valuation: about $1.75 trillion. ted 2025 revenue:** about $15 billion to $16 billion. ted 2025 profit:** about $8 billion. er merged valuation:** Reuters reported the February xAI combination valued SpaceX at $1 trillion and xAI at $250 billion, for a combined $1.25 trillion. matter of weeks, the public-market aspiration being discussed around SpaceX has moved from a $1 trillion standalone valuation to a possible $1.75 trillion IPO target. That is a breathtaking jump, even by Musk standards. hat number holds, SpaceX would be comfortably large enough to qualify for Nasdaq's proposed fast-track mechanism, because the proposal would allow newly listed companies ranking within the top 40 by market cap to be added quickly after listing. why this matters. SpaceX is not just trying to go public. It is trying to go public already wrapped in forced demand. The real reason this story matters Most IPO stories are about price. This one is about price plus plumbing. The plumbing is the proposed index shortcut. Nasdaq's February 2026 consultation document says a newly listed company could be considered for "Fast Entry" if its full market capitalization ranks within the top 40 current constituents of the index, with inclusion after 15 trading sessions and at least five days' notice. Reuters summarized the same proposal and noted that current rules can require up to a year before index inclusion. that matter? Because index inclusion changes the buyer base. A normal IPO has to win over active investors first. Passive money comes later. A fast-entry IPO can potentially get help from both almost right away. That does three things: It improves liquidity. It can help absorb post-IPO supply. It can reduce volatility by broadening the buyer pool. Reuters explicitly tied early index inclusion to access to institutional investors and smoother trading after the offering. ed into Cheap Investor language: SpaceX is not just selling a stock. It is trying to pre-arrange the afterparty. What SpaceX actually is now To understand whether the valuation makes any sense, you have to stop thinking of SpaceX as just "a rocket company." It has at least four engines under the hood. 1. Launch dominance SpaceX is the dominant launch provider in the commercial space market. Reuters reported last year that Musk projected about $15.5 billion in 2025 revenue and said commercial space revenue would exceed NASA's budget tied to the company's work. Reuters also noted the company aimed to exceed its already-record launch cadence after 134 Falcon launches in 2024. ters because launch is not just revenue. It is strategic control. Every extra launch lowers unit economics, deepens customer dependence, and strengthens the moat around Starlink deployment and government contracts. 2. Starlink Starlink is the economic heart of the story. Reuters reported that Starlink accounted for roughly 50% to 80% of SpaceX's total revenue last year and was the main revenue driver behind the company's reported $8 billion in profit on $15 billion to $16 billion of revenue. ls you something very important. The public market will probably value SpaceX less like a pure aerospace contractor and more like a hybrid of: satellite broadband utility, defense communications network, launch monopoly, and AI-adjacent infrastructure platform. That is a much bigger valuation box. 3. Government and defense relevance Reuters has also reported that SpaceX is viewed as a top contender in major U.S. defense initiatives and that the company's expanding communications and satellite role increasingly intersects with national-security priorities. ters because public markets pay up for assets that sit near national infrastructure, especially when they combine defense relevance with commercial monetization. 4. xAI adjacency The xAI merger matters even if the operating logic is still fuzzy. Reuters reported the February combination valued xAI at $250 billion and SpaceX at $1 trillion, creating a combined $1.25 trillion entity. Reuters also noted Musk has discussed AI compute in space within two to three years. s not mean the market should blindly reward the combination. But it does mean the SpaceX story is no longer just launches plus broadband. It is being sold as a future platform story—connectivity, defense, AI, orbital compute, and infrastructure. That is how you get from expensive to "maybe justifiable." It is also how you get from rational to dangerous. Data section: the valuation math is the whole fight Let's do the uncomfortable part. If SpaceX goes public at $1.75 trillion, and if reported 2025 revenue was $15 billion to $16 billion, then the company would be coming public at roughly 109x to 117x trailing sales. That is simple math from Reuters' revenue range and Reuters' reported valuation target. t was about $8 billion, then the implied trailing price-to-profit multiple would be about 219x. Again, same two reported figures. not cheap. That is not even "growth stock expensive." That is "you are paying today for years of flawless dominance" expensive. Now, bulls will say that trailing numbers are the wrong lens. And, to be fair, they have a point. Reuters Breakingviews cited Quilty Space estimates that Starlink alone could generate about $16 billion in revenue and $11 billion in EBITDA this year. numbers are even roughly right, then SpaceX's forward earnings power may be much larger than the 2025 snapshot suggests. But even then, you are still dealing with a valuation that requires several things to remain true at once: Starlink keeps scaling rapidly. Launch dominance stays intact. Regulatory and political risk stays manageable. Public investors remain willing to pay scarcity premiums. AI adjacency turns into real monetization, not just narrative uplift. At $1.75 trillion, the market is not buying the business as it is. It is buying the business as it might become. Is it cheap? No. Not in any conventional sense. Let's just say that plainly. At the rumored price, SpaceX would not be "cheap" on trailing revenue. It would not be "cheap" on trailing profit. It would not be "cheap" relative to normal aerospace, telecom, or defense peers. So why is this even a Cheap Investor editorial? Because sometimes "cheap" is not about low multiples. Sometimes it is about whether the market is underestimating the durability of the asset. That is the only real pro-SpaceX value case. The bull-value case is not: "Look how inexpensive this is." The bull-value case is: "This is one of the very few assets on Earth with quasi-monopoly characteristics across multiple critical layers of future infrastructure, so the traditional multiples do not capture the moat." That is a real argument. But it is not a bargain-bin argument. It is a scarcity premium argument. And scarcity premiums can be justified. They can also evaporate the moment growth slows or lockups crack. Why early index entry could be a yellow flag Here is the part bargain hunters should pay attention to. Fast index inclusion is not automatically bad. But when it becomes central to the sales pitch, it tells you something. It tells you the company and its advisers understand that post-IPO liquidity and demand support matter a lot. The Wall Street Journal previously reported that SpaceX had sought early inclusion in major indexes to improve liquidity and reduce volatility around the offering. Reuters later reported Nasdaq's fast-entry proposal would directly benefit companies such as SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI. strategic. It is also revealing. If the business were coming public at an obviously conservative price, it would not need as much help from index mechanics. The more important passive flows become to the thesis, the more careful you should be about separating real demand from structural demand. Those are not the same thing. One says investors love the company. The other says the plumbing forced some of them to buy it. Macro backdrop: why this could still work Now for the other side. The timing is not random. Reuters has reported that 2026 is shaping up to be a large year for IPOs, with Nasdaq seeing a robust pipeline for billion-dollar-plus offerings and a stronger issuance environment than the prior year. ters because huge IPOs need three conditions: healthy institutional risk appetite, credible aftermarket support, and a narrative broad enough to attract both growth and thematic investors. SpaceX has all three ingredients: it has real profits, not just promises; it has an enormous retail halo through Musk; and it touches AI, defense, telecom, industrial policy, and frontier tech all at once. an unusually powerful cocktail. So while the valuation looks extreme, the market setup could still allow the deal to work—especially if passive funds, retail enthusiasm, and institutional scarcity all line up together. Bull, base, and bear Bull case SpaceX prices near the top of the range, lists on Nasdaq, qualifies for fast-entry treatment, and passive buying helps stabilize the stock. Starlink growth remains explosive, public-market investors pay up for monopoly-like infrastructure, and the company becomes a new mega-cap benchmark for defense-plus-connectivity-plus-AI exposure. In that case, the valuation looks absurd only in hindsight, not in outcome. case The IPO is successful, but the valuation is so high that upside after listing is more limited than bulls expect. The company trades with big volatility, gains prestige from index entry, but spends months digesting the multiple. Investors eventually treat it as a great company that was simply sold at a very full price. case The market confuses structural demand with organic demand, the float is tight, passive support masks valuation risk, and then enthusiasm cools after lockups or growth expectations get revised. In that scenario, the same scarcity premium that helped the IPO can reverse into a de-rating story. The higher the opening multiple, the less room there is for narrative slippage. n plan for bargain hunters If this IPO happens near the rumored numbers, this is not a classic "buy it because it's cheap" setup. This is a "buy it only if you understand what you are paying for" setup. My Cheap Investor framework would be: Conservative Do not chase the first print. Wait to see: final valuation, float size, lockup structure, whether fast entry is approved and actually triggered, and whether the stock can hold above its opening range without pure momentum fuel. Moderate Treat it like a premium-quality asset, not a bargain. A small starter position could make sense only after the market shows where natural demand lives beyond headline excitement. Aggressive If you are trading it, understand that the trade may be more about flows and psychology than fundamentals in the early weeks. That can work, but it is not value investing. It is event trading. Cheap Investor checklist Here are the things that actually matter from here: Final IPO valuation versus the reported $1.75 trillion target. nal exchange choice**: Nasdaq versus NYSE. Reuters says Nasdaq is the current lean, but no final call has been made. st Entry approval details**: the Nasdaq proposal would require top-40 market-cap ranking and about 15 trading sessions before addition. oat size and lockups**: this will determine whether passive support can truly stabilize the stock. Reuters and FT both flagged supply overhang as a central issue. arlink's contribution**: Reuters says Starlink represented about 50% to 80% of company revenue last year. rward profitability**: Reuters reported about $8 billion in 2025 profit, but investors will need to know whether that is sustainable or accelerating. I integration narrative**: does it create real operating leverage, or just a richer story? Reuters has only reported valuation mechanics so far. vernment contract concentration and policy risk**: defense relevance can boost valuation, but it can also invite scrutiny. tail participation**: FT noted unusually strong retail demand could be part of the setup. That can be supportive early, but unstable later. hether the stock trades on fundamentals or forced buying** during the first month. That distinction matters more than the IPO headline. tom line SpaceX may be one of the most extraordinary businesses ever to approach the public market. That does not automatically make it cheap. At a reported $1.75 trillion target, the stock would be asking investors to pay an enormous premium to current revenue and profit. The only way that price works is if you believe SpaceX is not just a company, but a rare infrastructure monopoly spanning launch, broadband, defense, and future AI connectivity. is the Cheap Investor verdict: Amazing business? Very possibly. Cheap business? 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