The first offer is never the real offer… |
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Every car salesman alive knows this rule: never accept the first number.
The first number is not an offer. It is a feeling-out. A test to see how badly you want the deal.
The real negotiation starts after someone says NO — and whoever holds their nerve longest usually wins. |
Here's the story ⇩
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The Masterclass. |
There is a pattern in the relationship between the US government and the health insurance industry, and if you have never watched it closely, today was a masterclass in how it works.
1\ The government floats a number.
2\ The industry reacts with varying degrees of visible panic.
3\ Lobbyists get on planes. Analysts write notes with phrases like "disappointing but not surprising."
4\ And then, a few months later, Washington says “Fine“ and “friendlier” numbers come out. |
Today was the "friendlier number" part.
The story:
Back in January, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services proposed a 0.09% payment increase for Medicare Advantage plans in 2027.
To put that in plain terms: the industry was expecting roughly 3%, and Washington slid a 0.09% across the table and waited to see what happened. |
(What happened was: insurer stocks fell, analysts revised their models downward, and the lobbying industry had its best January in years.) |
The finalized rate, released yesterday: 2.48%.
→ Roughly $13 billion in additional payments to private insurers next year.
→ Wall Street had penciled in 1% to 1.5% at best.
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So who exactly is making $13 billion here? |
Glad you asked… 😀
Quick backstory. Most people know Medicare as the government health insurance program for Americans over 65.
What most people don't know is that a huge chunk of Medicare is actually outsourced to private companies. It's called Medicare Advantage, and it works like this:
→ the government picks a payment rate per enrollee,
→ hands it to companies like UnitedHealth, Humana, and CVS's insurance arm Aetna, and says "you run it, you keep whatever's left over." |
That payment rate?
It's basically the entire business model wrapped into a single number.
!!! When it goes up, → margins expand, → stocks climb, → and insurance executives have very good Tuesdays.
!!! When it comes in low — like the 0.09% proposed back in January — the opposite happens. |
(0.09%. To put that in perspective: if you asked for a 3% raise and your boss handed you a Post-it note that said "thinking about it," that's roughly the energy.) |
Yesterday's finalized rate of 2.48% didn't just reverse the January damage. It nearly doubled what Wall Street was expecting.
And this morning, the entire sector remembered how to go up.
→ UNH ( ▲ 9.31% )
→ HUM ( ▲ 8.13% )
→ CVS ( ▲ 6.47% )
→ ELV ( ▲ 2.82% )
→ CNC ( ▲ 2.36% )
→ OSCR ( ▲ 1.53% )
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They meant 5%… |
2.48% is the number they announced.
5% is the number that actually moved the stocks.
Here's what didn't make the headline:
On top of the 2.48% rate increase, CMS also confirmed insurers would receive an additional 2.5% benefit from risk-score adjustments — extra payments based on how sick their enrolled population is.
Add it up. 2.48 + 2.5. The calculator is not broken. |
(A raise and a quietly stapled bonus to the back of it.) |
The real effective increase for 2027 is closer to 5%.
Which means the stocks didn't overreact today.
They reacted to the actual number + the headline.
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Funny how that works. |
 |
Legislation establishing Medicare was signed July 30, 1965.
source: britannica |
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This is not a secret. It is a pattern that has repeated itself in this industry for years, and one that set up today's move with remarkable clarity. |
The gap this year was unusually wide — 0.09% proposed, 2.48% finalized — which is part of why the market reaction was so sharp.
But the mechanics behind it are the same ones that play out every cycle.
1\ Conservative opening.
2\ Industry pushback.
3\ Final number lands higher. Repeat.
!!! Not financial advice. The stocks mentioned are for educational purposes only. Do your own research before making investment decisions, please check the disclaimer below.
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Don’t forget to to cast your vote 👇 |
Poll of the day:Iran deadline hits tonight. Deal or no deal? |
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Disclaimer: This letter is not offering investment, trading, or investment advice nor is based on any individual portfolio or business operation. We are not a registered investment, stock nor commodity advisor. One should consult with their own registered advisor to discuss investment strategies that are appropriate for their business or personal goals, risk tolerance and financial situation. Information in this report and on any website is derived from a variety of source believed to be reliable however no representation is made that the information is accurate, complete or correct. These lessons, newsletter and site content is not intended nor shall not constitute or be construed as an offer or recommendation to “buy”, “sell”, “trade” or invest in any securities, commodities, futures, options or other asset referred to in said lessons, reports or newsletters. Rather, this research is intended to identify situations and circumstances that those in the trading community should be aware of to better help assess and improve their own risk management skills.
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