GOOD MORNING. |
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THE LEAD |
Those Friday closes tell only half the story. Everything above reflects where markets ended last Friday, April 17. Since then, the situation has reversed sharply. Oil futures are up roughly 7% in Sunday evening trading, pushing back toward $90 a barrel. Dow futures are pointing to an open about 450 points lower. S&P 500 futures are down roughly 0.8%. Monday morning begins in a very different place than Friday afternoon left off. |
Here is what happened. |
On Friday, Iran's foreign minister announced the Strait of Hormuz was open for commercial ships. Oil fell nearly 10% in a single session. The Dow gained 868 points and the S&P 500 closed at an all-time high. It looked like the energy shock driving up gas and grocery prices since late February might finally be easing. |
By Saturday morning, Iran reversed course. Officials said the strait was back under strict control and would stay closed until the United States lifted its naval blockade of Iranian ports. Iranian Revolutionary Guard gunboats then fired on commercial ships attempting to pass through. A French shipping company confirmed one of its vessels was hit by warning shots. British and Indian maritime authorities reported similar incidents. The brief reopening lasted less than 24 hours. |
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Sunday brought another escalation. The U.S. Navy guided-missile destroyer USS Spruance intercepted a large Iranian-flagged cargo ship, the Touska, in the Gulf of Oman. After the crew ignored repeated warnings over six hours, the Navy fired rounds into the ship's engine room and disabled it. U.S. Marines then boarded and seized the vessel. President Trump announced the action on social media and said the ship was already under Treasury sanctions for prior illegal activity. |
Iran's military called the seizure maritime piracy and warned that Iran would respond soon. Iran also declined to attend the planned second round of peace talks in Pakistan that the White House had organized for this week. |
The clock now matters enormously. The ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran expires Wednesday, April 22, three days from now. Trump said last week he may not extend it, warning that military strikes could resume if no deal is reached. Iran's parliament speaker said the two sides remain far from an agreement. |
For your wallet, the math is straightforward. The national average gas price stands at about $4.05 a gallon today, still more than a dollar above where it was before the conflict began in late February. Friday's drop in oil offered a brief signal that relief was coming. Sunday's surge has taken most of that back. How Wednesday goes will determine whether prices at the pump start coming down or climb again. |
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Stay calm. Hold your plan. Watch Wednesday. |
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THE NUMBER THAT MATTERS |
2 Days |
Ceasefire Deadline |
Two days. That is the window left on the U.S.-Iran ceasefire before it expires Wednesday, April 22. Every market move this week will be priced around that deadline. If talks resume, the truce is extended, and the strait reopens on stable terms, oil could pull back and stocks could recover the ground lost Monday. If the ceasefire expires without an extension and military action resumes, oil could push back toward or above the $100-plus range seen earlier in the conflict, inflation would climb further, and stock markets would face more sustained pressure. Some regional mediators have suggested both sides gave an in-principle agreement to extend the truce. But Iran's decision to close the strait again, fire on ships, and decline Sunday's planned negotiations has made that outcome far less certain than it appeared 48 hours ago. |
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WHAT WE’RE WATCHING THIS WEEK |
INFLATION DATA |
OIL AND GAS PRICES: Friday's Relief Has Largely Been Erased Overnight |
Friday's nearly 10% drop in crude oil was one of the largest single-day declines since the war began in late February. By Sunday evening, much of it was gone. WTI crude futures climbed roughly 7% overnight, pushing back toward $90 a barrel. The national average for regular gasoline is about $4.05 a gallon, still more than a dollar above pre-war levels. If the strait stays closed and the ceasefire expires without renewal, analysts have warned crude could push back toward $100 or higher. For retirees on fixed incomes, that is not just a gas pump problem. Higher diesel raises the cost of trucking groceries, manufacturing goods, and heating homes. March inflation already hit 3.3% annually, almost entirely because of energy. More of the same remains possible. |
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SMART MONEY SIGNAL |
THE FEDERAL RESERVE: Warsh Confirmation Hearing Tuesday as Powell Pressure Intensifies |
Tuesday brings a second major event: the Senate Banking Committee confirmation hearing for Kevin Warsh, President Trump's nominee to replace Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Powell's term expires May 15. Trump has threatened to fire him before that date if he does not step aside, and the Justice Department has opened a criminal investigation into Fed building renovation costs, which Powell has publicly called a political pretext. The Supreme Court is also expected to issue a ruling that could determine how much authority a president has over the central bank. For savers and retirees, this matters directly. The Fed controls the interest rates that set CD yields, savings account returns, bond income, and mortgage costs. Uncertainty about who leads the Fed and whether they will operate independently adds risk to an already unsettled week. |
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WORTH KNOWING |
EARNINGS SEASON: Good Results So Far, but Companies Face a Harder Week Ahead |
The first several weeks of earnings season came in better than expected. Large banks and financial companies, including State Street and Fifth Third Bancorp, reported first-quarter profits above analyst estimates, helping steady the market through a volatile stretch. This week brings more reports, and the backdrop is more complicated than it was seven days ago. Rising energy prices again mean higher costs for transportation, manufacturing, and retail. What executives say about the months ahead will matter as much as the quarterly numbers themselves. For dividend-focused retirees, any signal that companies are under pressure on cash flow or considering cuts to shareholder payouts deserves close attention. |
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Friday's record-high close and falling oil prices did not survive the weekend. The Strait of Hormuz is closed again, the U.S. Navy has seized an Iranian ship, Iran is threatening retaliation, and the ceasefire expires Wednesday. Monday opens lower and this week carries real risk. Stay diversified, keep cash reserves in place, and give the situation a few days to clarify before drawing any conclusions. |
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Disclaimer*: This is a paid advertisement for Miso Robotics’ Regulation A offering. Please read the offering circular at invest.misorobotics.com. |
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