Everybody wants to know. |
How does Tim Sykes profit over the weekend? |
It sounds impossible. |
But when I show you how I'm making thousands of dollars almost every weekend like clockwork… |
By just placing one simple trade around 2:59 pm on Friday… |
You're going to be SHOCKED. |
Click here to discover my best trading secret |
|
|
📉 BONUS: Everyone Read The PCE Print Wrong 🛢️3.8% headline inflation, and the headlines screamed floor. The bond market spent the morning doing the exact opposite of what the panic says it should.
Quick Take
- April headline PCE hit 3.8%, core 3.3%, and Kashkari said Thursday inflation is still his top priority. The crowd heard "no cuts, maybe a hike."
- The savings rate just fell to a near-four-year low. That's not a demand-pull economy. That's a consumer paying for gas with money they don't have.
- (one weekend setup the inflation panic is busy ignoring — quick read)
The April PCE print landed at 3.8% headline this morning. Core at 3.3%. And before the ink dried, the floor crowd was back: inflation's stuck above 3%, the Fed is boxed in, the market's now pricing roughly a coin flip on a rate hike by December. I read the same number they did. I'm reading it differently. Start with where the 3.8% came from. It didn't come from wages running hot or services re-accelerating across the board. It came from oil. The Iran conflict put a war premium into energy that pushed the Fed's preferred gauge up from 3.5% in March, and tariffs did the rest on the goods side. Cost-push, not demand-pull. Those are not the same animal, and the policy response to each is the opposite. You don't fight an oil shock with rate hikes — Burns tried a version of that in the 1970s and got two false dawns and a decade of pain for it. Here's the line nobody put in the headline. The personal savings rate just dropped to its lowest level in nearly four years. Households are burning through their cushion to cover the gas pump and the grocery bill. Read that again. The consumer isn't spending because demand is strong, the consumer is spending down savings because prices left them no choice. That is the signature of demand destruction in progress, not an overheating economy that needs to be cooled.
The headline measures yesterday's oil. The savings rate measures tomorrow's recession. The crowd is trading the first one.
Now the part that actually matters. Watch what the bond market did, not what the pundits said. The 10-year had been at a 16-month high of 4.7% on May 20 — a genuine inflation-scare level. By this week it had retraced all the way to 4.47% as energy prices came off the boil on Iran de-escalation chatter. (And yes, the same desks warning about a 3% inflation floor were the ones who told you to short Treasuries at 4.7% ten days ago.) Bonds rallying into a hot inflation print is the tell. The smartest, most inflation-sensitive market on the planet looked at 3.8% and decided the oil premium fades faster than the slowdown.
Sponsored The Setup That Doesn't Care What The Fed Does Next While the inflation debate runs in circles, one weekend strategy targets short-window opportunities that don't depend on guessing the Fed's next move. A simple framework, built for traders who'd rather act than argue about the dot plot. See how it's structured before the next session opens. See the framework → |
What I'm watching into next weekThe whole bull-vs-bear-on-the-Fed fight comes down to one question: is the oil premium sticky, or does it bleed out as fast as it came in? If Iran de-escalation holds and crude keeps falling, the June and July prints come down on their own and the hike pricing looks ridiculous in hindsight. If the Strait of Hormuz flares again, all bets reset. I'd want to see the next two energy-driven prints before I trust the floor narrative either way. The savings rate, though — that one I trust now. A consumer this stretched doesn't keep an inflation problem alive. It ends it the hard way.
The next print: Watch the 2s10s and the 10-year against crude — if yields keep falling while oil falls, the bond market is voting slowdown over inflation. The next jobs report and the early-June Fed speakers are where the easing-bias dissenters either fold or dig in. P.S. — One weekend setup that doesn't wait on the Fed to make up its mind. Quick read → — David Mercer, Senior Market Analyst
📱 The editorial is the analysis. SMS is the tape. When the read actually changes, you want it before the recap. Fed surprises, dovish dissents, a regime shift in the bond market — these can land outside the editorial window. Our SMS desk sends a brief heads-up when one genuinely matters. Free, two to three texts a week, opt out anytime. Get the SMS alerts (free) → |
Investimonials is a publication of Guardian Financial Publishing (D/B/A) Stable Financial Publishing | Privacy Policy | Terms | Disclaimer |
Your Investimonials account is active and this message was sent as part of your current subscription. If you did not request this email or believe it was sent in error, please reply directly so our team can review your account. Account Status and Subscription Details Your subscription is confirmed and your delivery preferences are up to date. You are currently receiving content based on the schedule and frequency you selected during registration. If you need to adjust your delivery window, change your email frequency, or pause updates temporarily, reply to this message and our team will process your request within one business day. Your most recent account activity was logged and no unusual access was detected. If you did not recently sign in or update your preferences, please reply to this email immediately so we can secure your account. We recommend reviewing your login history periodically and updating your password if anything appears unfamiliar. As a subscriber, your current access includes daily market briefings, watchlist alerts, and periodic research digests. These are delivered according to the preferences you set during enrollment. A confirmation of your original registration is available upon request. Billing and Transaction History If you have questions about a recent charge, your renewal date, or your current subscription tier, reply to this email and a member of our billing team will provide your account details. We maintain complete records of all transactions associated with your account and can furnish a full statement upon request. For subscribers with active paid memberships, billing occurs on the renewal date established at the time of purchase. If you need to update your payment method on file, please contact our team directly rather than clicking any links in forwarded emails. We process all payment updates manually to protect against unauthorized changes. If you believe a charge was made in error, please contact us within 30 days of the transaction date. Refund requests are reviewed individually and typically processed within five to seven business days. You will receive a confirmation email once any adjustment has been applied to your account. Please note that we will never ask you to provide full payment card numbers, bank account details, or login credentials via email. Any message requesting this information should be considered fraudulent and reported to our team immediately. Managing Your Communication Preferences We understand that inbox management is personal and we respect your time. You have full control over the types of messages you receive from us. Available options include daily alerts, weekly summaries, breaking market updates only, or a temporary pause on all communications. To update your preferences, reply to this email with your request. Our team handles preference changes manually to ensure accuracy. Changes typically take effect within 24 to 48 hours. If you previously submitted a request and it has not been reflected, please reply again referencing your original message and we will prioritize it. If you prefer to unsubscribe entirely, you may do so using the link provided at the bottom of this email. The process is straightforward and your request will be honored promptly. We do not use misleading tactics to prevent unsubscription and we respect every subscriber's decision. Privacy and Data Handling Your personal information, including the name and email address you provided at registration, is stored securely and accessed only by authorized members of our team. We do not sell, rent, license, or disclose your information to third parties for marketing purposes. Our data handling practices are reviewed regularly to ensure compliance with applicable regulations. We follow industry-standard protocols for data storage and transmission. Subscriber records are maintained only for as long as necessary to fulfill your subscription and any applicable legal obligations. If you would like to request a copy of the personal information we hold on file for you, or if you would like that information deleted, please reply to this email. We will process your request and confirm completion within ten business days. We may update our privacy practices periodically. When changes are made, you will be notified via email with a summary of what has changed. Your continued use of our services following such notification indicates acceptance of the revised terms. Account Security We take the security of your account seriously. All subscriber data is transmitted using encryption and stored on systems that are monitored for unauthorized access. We encourage subscribers to use unique, strong passwords and to be cautious of unsolicited messages requesting personal information. If you receive a suspicious email that appears to be from Investimonials, please forward it to our team for investigation. We will review the message and advise you on whether it is legitimate. Do not click links or download attachments from messages you are unsure about. For added security, we recommend reviewing your account settings periodically to confirm that your contact information and preferences are current. If you notice any discrepancies, reply to this email and our team will assist you. Contacting Support Our support team is available Monday through Friday during standard business hours. We make every effort to respond to all inquiries within one business day. For urgent account security concerns, we prioritize faster response times. To reach our team, reply directly to this email. Please include your full name and the email address associated with your subscription so we can locate your records promptly. If you are writing on behalf of another subscriber, please include their written authorization. We welcome your feedback on our content, communication frequency, and overall subscriber experience. Every response is reviewed and your input directly influences how we improve our service. Content Disclaimer The information provided through Investimonials is intended for educational and informational purposes. Market conditions are subject to rapid change and past performance is not indicative of future results. Subscribers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence and consult with qualified financial professionals before making investment decisions. Our editorial team works to ensure the accuracy of information at the time of publication. However, we cannot guarantee that all information remains current after delivery. If you identify an error in any of our content, please notify us and we will issue a correction promptly. Thank you for being an active Investimonials subscriber. We value your trust and your time. If there is anything we can do to improve your experience, please do not hesitate to reach out by replying to this message.
|
|
0 التعليقات:
إرسال تعليق