How This Mining Stock Can Fix High Gas PricesVIEW IN BROWSER By Michael Salvatore, Editor, TradeSmith Daily In This Digest:
- Short-Term Health is lighting up with fresh buy signals on Apple and a wave of others
- Defense stocks are selling off even as conflicts fill the headlines
- Signals is flagging a momentum trade on this mining giant
Stocks have been on a tear in April…The S&P 500 is up 10% since March 30. That's one of the fastest rallies on record. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 is up 15%. And the biggest AI stocks have climbed even higher. There's a good reason for that. Five companies are leading the AI buildout — Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL), Meta Platforms (META), Microsoft (MSFT), and Oracle (ORCL). Together, they'll spend $725 billion this year on the data centers, chips, and power that AI runs on. That money flows straight to the chipmakers, server builders, power producers, and construction firms supplying them. And it's lit a fire under their share prices. But while stocks are partying, the bond market is flashing a warning. The 30-year Treasury yield sits at 4.9% this morning. That's the interest rate the U.S. government pays to borrow money for 30 years. And it's near the top of where it's traded over the past five years. Rising yields tell us bond investors are nervous. They're demanding more interest to lend to Uncle Sam for the long haul. Either they expect inflation to stay hot... or they're worried about the mountain of debt Washington keeps piling on. Maybe both. The last two times yields climbed this high, stocks took a beating. In October 2023, the S&P 500 was in the middle of a sharp sell-off. And in January 2025, the index fell almost 18% over the next few months. So who's right? The bulls celebrating AI spending, or the bears watching bond yields? Here at TradeSmith, we don't try to parse headlines or figure out what bondholders are thinking. We look at the data instead. And right now, our tools are telling two different stories at once – one where the trend is healthy, the other where cracks are quietly forming underneath. In the bulls’ favor, this rally has real depth…The data makes it clear that this rally isn't running on fumes. On Friday, a fresh wave of stocks entered Short-Term Health Green Zones. Short-Term Health compares a stock's recent price moves to its typical trading range. This tells you whether it's in a healthy uptrend (Green Zone), a caution zone (Yellow Zone), or a downtrend (Red Zone). A fresh Green Zone entry means the stock's trend has just shifted into the healthy column – a signal that buyers are in control. Here are all the stocks that entered Green Zones across the S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100, mid-cap S&P 400, and small-cap S&P 600 on Friday: 
A few companies stand out. Top among them is Apple (AAPL) – one of the world's largest tech companies at a $4 trillion market cap. After a rough stretch in 2026 where the stock traded mostly sideways, it’s in a healthy uptrend again. But it’s not just tech. Mondelez International (MDLZ), the packaged-foods company behind Oreo, Cadbury, and dozens of other household brands, gained 6.5% last week and entered a Green Zone. One nuance worth watching: Not every stock entering the Green Zone is up on the week. D.R. Horton (DHI), one of the country's largest homebuilders, dropped 6.2% last week – and still entered a Green Zone. Same with Carvana (CVNA), the online used-car platform, down 6.5% on the week. That highlights how Short-Term Health works. It doesn’t just measure the recent performance. It measures how a stock is trading relative to its recent trading patterns to see whether it’s moving from an unhealthy to a healthy pattern or the other way around. For these two, the pattern is bullish – even if the recent price action looks rough on the surface. That's the kind of early signal that often comes before the price catches up. That said, a wave of short-term buy signals doesn't mean you should be uniformly bullish. This year has already shown that selectivity pays. Plenty of stocks across these same indexes are firing bear signals right now.
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Defense stocks are selling off even as Iran tensions flare…You'd expect defense stocks to be in good shape when Iran tensions are flaring. Over the weekend, President Trump said the U.S. would escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz, putting it once again on a collision course with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp, which is blocking ships’ passage through the Strait. The narrative for this group is about as bullish as it gets right now. But our data disagrees. Two of the country's top defense and government services companies just entered the Red Zone: Northrop Grumman (NOC) and Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH). Here they are among the other Short-Term Health Red signals that fired late last week: 
Northrop builds bombers, missiles, and space systems. Booz Allen is one of the federal government's largest IT and consulting contractors. Both should be beneficiaries of the Iran war. But their trend data says prices are deteriorating – not improving. Investors may be starting to price in an end to the conflict. If the war winds down, defense stocks lose the premium the market has baked in since fighting began. Either way, the data is doing what it always does – telling you what's happening in prices, not what the story says should be happening. Healthcare is showing similar stress. Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN) – a $72.8 billion biotech known for its macular degeneration drug Eylea – dropped 6.7% last week and slipped into the Red Zone. Zimmer Biomet (ZBH), which makes knee and hip replacement implants, fell 9.2% and followed. Healthcare services company Cardinal Health (CAH), property insurer American International (AIG), and another biotech focused on rare disease, Insmed (INSM), also just dropped into the red. The takeaway is direct: Avoid these companies until Short-Term Health turns Green. There's better risk/reward elsewhere in this market right now. Signals just flagged a Sprint buy on a critical element producer…Short-Term Health tells you the trend. But if you want to know the precise entry point within that trend – where history says the odds are stacked most in your favor – that's what Signals is built to find. Our new AI-powered trading system doesn’t look at balance sheets… read earnings reports… or follow news headlines. Instead, it detects tiny anomalies in stocks’ historical data. Then it finds statistical connections between them that a human analyst would never find. Think of it like a “thumbprint.” Every great trade has one. A unique alignment of factors – technical indicators, price patterns, market conditions – that have aligned before. When those factors align again, our system flags a high-probability setup. Some with historical accuracy rates of 90% or more. One of its top setups heading into this week is on Freeport-McMoRan (FCX): 
The signal that fired on FCX is a Sprint signal. It triggers when a stock pulls back quickly during an otherwise strong uptrend – the kind of brief dip that creates a lower-risk entry before the next leg higher. This signal is purely data-driven and is active until the stock rises 6% or after 21 trading days. But the backdrop to the stock’s recent price performance is noteworthy. Freeport is one of the world's largest producers of copper, gold, and molybdenum – the last of which doesn't get nearly enough attention. Molybdenum is a key catalyst in petroleum refining, used to remove sulfur from crude oil. The situation in Iran has choked off nearly 20% of the world’s oil supply, leaving customers to look elsewhere. And one major area of oil output has recently opened up: Venezuela. With the U.S. capture of former president Nicolas Maduro, the country is now in better position to refine and export its vast oil reserves. And that bears out in the data. Venezuelan oil exports rose 14% to 1.23 million barrels per day in April, the highest in nearly seven years. Venezuela’s oil, though, is just as famous for its quantity as its quality. It’s what’s called a heavy, “sour” crude that’s high in sulfur. That means refiners will need plenty of molybdenum to bring the Venezuelan oil market back online. On top of that, Freeport's copper exposure makes it a direct play on the AI data center and electrification buildout. The historical case for this setup is worth spelling out. Over the past 10 years, this Sprint signal has fired 75 times on FCX. The results: a 93.3% accuracy rate, an average return of 5.2%, and a typical hold time of nine days. That makes a reward-to-risk ratio for this trade of nearly 12-to-1. For every dollar risked, the historical pattern has returned about $12. That's what a well-tested, high-probability setup looks like. If you're a Signals charter member, FCX is worth putting on your watchlist this week. One more thing before I close: Tomorrow in TradeSmith Daily, I'll be making one final announcement about our Signals trading tool – and it may be the most interesting one yet. It has to do with a new method of trading that concentrates everything down to just three stocks at a time. Over a six-year backtest dating back to January 2020, this strategy produced a 54% average compounded annual return. At the same time, the worst drawdown this strategy produced was just 18.1%. That means it both outperformed the S&P 500 each year and lost less during the 2022 bear market. I'll have the full details for you tomorrow, so be sure to tune in. To building wealth beyond measure, 
Michael Salvatore
Editor, TradeSmith Daily |
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