Stocks End Lower But Off Intraday Lows, NVIDIA Earnings On Tap For WednesdayStocks closed mostly lower yesterday, but well off their intraday lows, as most of the major indexes made a late-day comeback. The Dow, however, was able to get back into the plus column. Profit taking after heady gains over the last several weeks weighed on stocks. But not by much. And the major indexes remain near record territory. But worries over what comes next in the Middle East conflict has increased volatility. President Trump has said "the ceasefire is on massive life support," and gave it a "1% chance" of surviving. And yesterday, he said "the clock is ticking" regarding Iran agreeing to a peace deal, or else "there won't be anything left of them." The U.S. has reportedly paused a planned strike on Iran that had been scheduled for Tuesday. President Trump said he was asked by Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE to "hold off" on a "planned military attack," given that "serious negotiations" were now taking place. We will see how long that lasts. And if Iran can finally make an agreement. In other news, yesterday's Housing Market Index rose to 37 vs. last month's 34 and views for the same. Today we'll get the Housing Starts and Permits report, and the Pending Home Sales Index. We'll also hear from Fed policymakers Christopher Waller, Anna Paulson and Cheryl Venable as they speak at their respective engagements throughout the day. Earnings season starts winding down this week with only a few hundred companies on deck to report. But what an earnings season it's been so far. Quarterly earnings for the S&P are on pace to be up 24.0% in the current earnings period (Q1'26). Wow! That comes on the heels of Q4'25, which showed 14.1% EPS growth. And next quarter (Q2'26) is projected to show 21.3% EPS growth. But it doesn't stop there. Q3'26 is expected to be up 18.2%, with Q4'26 up 20.1%. So the spectacular gains we saw over the last several weeks during the earnings season augurs well for more gains like this in the coming months given the stellar earnings picture. Today we'll hear from retailer Home Depot. But what everybody is really waiting for is NVIDIA to report on Wednesday, after the close. We'll, also hear from Analog Devices on Wednesday before the open. Big tech and AI earnings, this earnings season, have once again shown that the AI trade is alive and well. And given the insatiable demand for all things AI, it looks like the AI boom has years more to go. Legendary trader Paul Tudor Jones thinks so as well, saying that the AI-driven bull market still has "another year or two to run," and compared it to the late 1990's tech boom. That has been my sentiment all along, and comports with my expectation that we see 5 years in a row of double-digit market gains, just like we did in the 1995-1999 dot-com boom. This year (2026) would be year 4, while 2027 would be year 5. But nobody says it has to stop there. With AI being touted as the most transformational tech breakthrough ever, it could very well last much longer. Anyway, we'll get another look at AI earnings and outlook when AI bellwether NVIDIA reports on Wednesday. In the meantime, we'll see if a peace deal with Iran can finally be had once and for all. And we'll see if the market can consolidate recent gains and begin prepping for the next leg up. See you tomorrow,  Kevin Matras
Executive Vice President, Zacks Investment Research |
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