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Today's question: The market is closed for Memorial Day — but oil just fell 8% on hopes of a deal that still hasn't been signed. When trading reopens Tuesday, will the peace rally hold, or snap back like the six times before it? |
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| Kasper Soren |
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There's no opening bell today. It's Memorial Day — the markets are closed, the trading floors are quiet, and 45 million Americans are on the road for the holiday, filling their tanks at the highest prices since 2022. So today's letter is less about live numbers and more about the bigger picture: where things actually stand, and what to watch when trading reopens Tuesday morning. |
The short version: oil cracked last week, falling 8%, on real progress toward ending the Iran war. But "progress" is not "peace." The deal still isn't signed, new disputes have appeared, and we've watched this exact hope rise and collapse at least six times since February. Before you let a quiet holiday lull you into thinking the all-clear has sounded, here's the honest read. |
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OIL CRACKED. BUT THE DEAL STILL ISN'T REAL. |
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Last week was the best week for oil bulls in two months — which means it was the best week in two months for everyone filling a gas tank. West Texas crude fell about 8%; Brent fell about 5%. The cause was genuine: after almost three months of war, the United States and Iran finally appear to be negotiating seriously, and President Trump declared over the weekend that a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz had been "largely negotiated." For a market that has been terrified of $5 gas by summer, that was real relief, and stocks rode it to fresh record highs. |
But read past the headline and the picture gets complicated fast. Trump himself walked it back almost immediately, posting that the deal "isn't even fully negotiated yet" and that he wouldn't "rush" it. And the specific sticking points that have emerged are not small. Iran now wants to charge a toll of $2 million on every single oil tanker that crosses the Strait of Hormuz — a demand the U.S. has flatly rejected as a precedent it won't accept. Iran still refuses to hand over its stockpile of enriched uranium. And Tehran wants its frozen assets released as part of any agreement. Each of these alone has been enough to collapse previous rounds of talks. All three are live right now. |
Here's the pattern every retiree should hold onto: since the war began in late February, a deal has been declared "close" at least six times. There was a two-week ceasefire in April that fell apart. There were 48-hour ultimatums. There was a "very significant present" from Iran in March. Every single time, oil dropped, stocks popped, and within days the fine print collapsed and prices snapped right back. Maybe this time is different — genuine progress does seem to be happening. But the smart posture is to treat the oil drop as a welcome but fragile move, not a confirmed all-clear. With markets closed today, every twist between now and Tuesday's open gets absorbed at once. That's a setup for a sharp move in one direction — and nobody holding a position over the weekend gets to react until it's already happened. |
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🎯 Actionable Trade Setup |
Watching: USO (oil), XLE (energy), and the broad market (SPY) for Tuesday's gap at the open. Bias: Keep an energy hedge; don't bet the holiday on the peace headline holding. Strategy: Stay balanced into Tuesday — some energy exposure that benefits if talks fail and oil spikes, plus cash ready to deploy into whatever the open creates. Avoid oversized bets riding on a single weekend of diplomacy. Invalidation: A verified, signed deal with the Strait of Hormuz actually reopening to tanker traffic. Optimistic posts don't count — tankers moving do. What to watch Tuesday: Whether oil gaps down and holds, or gaps down and reverses (the pattern in the six prior false starts).
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Market Delta — Mon May 25 (Memorial Day · Markets Closed)
U.S. markets CLOSED today — reopen Tuesday 9:30 AM ET
Last: Brent ~$98–104 (fell ~5% on the week) | WTI ~$92–97 (-8% on the week)
Dow closed Fri at a record high | Gas national avg over $4/gal (highest since 2022)
Watch Tuesday: Iran deal status, Hormuz toll dispute, oil gap at the open
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ELON MUSK IS MAILING SOMETHING TO 43 STATES. |
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Elon Musk has a habit of turning ideas most people dismiss as science fiction into the largest companies in the world. Electric cars were a punchline until Tesla became one of the most valuable automakers on Earth. Private rockets were considered impossible until SpaceX began launching more payloads than entire nations. Satellite internet was a money-loser everyone had tried and failed at until Starlink connected millions of remote households. The pattern with Musk is consistent: the thing being mocked today is frequently the thing minting fortunes five years later. |
That track record is exactly why his next moves draw so much attention — and why it's worth paying attention when reports surface that he's working on something new. Musk runs an interconnected empire now: Tesla for manufacturing and energy, SpaceX and Starlink for space and connectivity, xAI for artificial intelligence, all increasingly woven together. February's merger of SpaceX and xAI, the planned space-based data centers, the direct-to-phone satellite service — these aren't separate bets anymore. They're pieces of one integrated system. When a new project emerges from that ecosystem, the question for investors isn't whether it sounds far-fetched. The question is whether it fits the pattern of the things that sounded far-fetched before and then weren't. |
One analyst is now pointing to a specific new Musk venture — one he's reportedly been quietly developing for decades — and making the case that it could matter more than anything Musk has built so far. |
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Sponsored |
Check your mailbox. |
Not joking. |
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Yours could already be on the way. |
It's part of a project he's been sitting on for 27 years — something he believes could be bigger than Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI combined. |
Find out what's inside — and what it could mean for you — right here. |
See what Elon's sending → |
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🎯 Actionable Trade Setup |
Watching: TSLA (Tesla) as the primary public Musk vehicle; the eventual SpaceX listing (June). Bias: Interested in the Musk ecosystem long-term, disciplined on entry. Logic: Musk's integrated empire is a real long-term story, but the public ways to play it (Tesla today, SpaceX soon) carry high valuations and concentration risk tied to one person. Size any position as you would any high-volatility holding. Caution: Teaser campaigns promising the "next big thing" are marketing. Treat the underlying idea as worth researching, not as a confirmed recommendation. Verify any specific claim before acting on it.
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WHY MOST PEOPLE LOSE MONEY ON OPTIONS — AND HOW NOT TO. |
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Options have a fearsome reputation among retirees, and often for good reason. Most people who try them lose money — not because options themselves are inherently reckless, but because they jump in without understanding the rules. They buy contracts they don't fully understand, they misjudge how quickly time decay eats their position, and they treat a tool that professionals use for protection as if it were a lottery ticket. The result is predictable: they hand their account to the market and wonder where it went. |
But here's the part that rarely gets explained to ordinary investors: the same options that destroy undisciplined gamblers are, in careful hands, primarily defensive tools. A "covered call" can generate income from stocks you already own. A "protective put" works like insurance on a position you want to keep — capping your downside in exactly the kind of volatile, headline-driven market we're living through right now. The difference between using options to protect a lifetime of savings and using them to gamble it away comes down entirely to knowing the rules before you place a single trade. In a market where one Truth Social post can move oil 8% in a week, understanding how to hedge is no longer exotic knowledge — it's practical self-defense. |
The investors who do best with options are the ones who learn the framework first, on paper, before risking a dollar — ideally from someone who explains it in plain English instead of Wall Street jargon. |
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🎯 Actionable Trade Setup |
Watching: Your own portfolio's downside protection heading into a volatile, headline-driven summer. Bias: Defensive education first; capital protection over speculation. Strategy: If you hold individual stocks you don't want to sell, learn how a protective put or covered call works before you need it. Paper-trade any new strategy before committing real money. Logic: Options used defensively can reduce risk; options used as lottery tickets increase it. The tool is neutral — the knowledge is what protects you. Never trade a strategy you can't explain in one plain sentence.
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🔒 OBBBA Rule Watch — Tax Rule of the Day
The SALT Deduction Cap Jumped From $10,000 to $40,000. That's Real Money.
For years, the "SALT cap" limited how much you could deduct in state and local taxes (property taxes plus state income or sales taxes) to just $10,000 on your federal return. For retirees in higher-tax states — think New York, New Jersey, California, Illinois — that cap meant thousands of dollars in taxes you paid locally but couldn't deduct federally. Under the One Big Beautiful Bill, the SALT cap was raised to $40,000, a fourfold increase. For a retiree paying $15,000 in property taxes and $10,000 in state income tax, that's the difference between deducting $10,000 and deducting the full $25,000 — potentially thousands of dollars back in your pocket. The higher cap does phase down for very high earners (beginning around $500,000 of income), so it's targeted at middle and upper-middle-income households.
Why it matters: If you stopped itemizing years ago because the $10,000 cap made the standard deduction better, it may now be worth itemizing again. Run both ways for your 2025 return — the $40,000 cap could flip the math back in your favor.
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STARLINK'S "5G FROM SPACE" — AND WHO BENEFITS ON THE GROUND. |
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The next phase of the connectivity revolution is being launched, literally, from orbit. Starlink — SpaceX's satellite network — is preparing what amounts to "5G from space": direct satellite-to-phone service that lets an ordinary smartphone connect to the sky when there's no cell tower in range. Paired with the direct-to-cell partnerships SpaceX already has with major carriers, the implication is staggering. The concept of a "dead zone" — anywhere on Earth with no signal — begins to disappear. For the billions of people who live beyond reliable cell coverage, in rural areas and developing regions, this is the difference between being disconnected and coming online for the first time. |
Here's the investing insight that most people miss. When a foundational layer of infrastructure gets built — railroads, highways, the internet, and now universal connectivity — the biggest fortunes often aren't made by the company that builds the infrastructure. They're made by the companies that build useful services on top of it. The railroads enabled the mail-order catalog businesses. The internet enabled e-commerce. Universal satellite connectivity will enable a whole new layer of companies serving billions of newly-connected people: payment apps, communication tools, and platforms that turn everyday phone use into economic opportunity for people who were previously invisible to the financial system. The satellites are the road. The interesting question is who builds the businesses that drive on it. |
That's exactly the bet behind one company positioning itself for the moment global satellite coverage arrives — already built on the ground while the infrastructure launches overhead. |
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Sponsored |
Starlink is preparing to launch “5G from space.” |
That means millions of phones will soon connect directly to satellites — even in places where cell towers never existed. |
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And one company already built for that moment is Mode Mobile. |
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So far the company has already: |
Generated $115M in revenue and $11.8M as EBITDA $1B in Earnings and Savings Attracted 59,000+ shareholders Reserved the Nasdaq ticker $MODE
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But the real opportunity may come next. |
As global satellite coverage expands, Mode’s earning technology could reach billions of new users — including rural regions and underserved markets that traditional telecom networks never reached. |
In other words: |
The infrastructure is being launched from space… |
And Mode is already positioned on the ground. |
Right now investors still have a rare window to participate before a potential IPO. |
Shares in the current round are still available — but space is limited as the offering fills. |
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Please read the offering circular and related risks at invest.modemobile.com. This is a paid advertisement for Mode Mobile’s Regulation A+ Offering. Mode Mobile recently received their ticker reservation with Nasdaq ($MODE), indicating an intent to IPO in the next 24 months. An intent to IPO is no guarantee that an actual IPO will occur. The Deloitte rankings are based on submitted applications and public company database research, with winners selected based on their fiscal-year revenue growth percentage over a three-year period. Pro forma revenue and EBITDA, includes full year numbers of the businesses acquired throughout 2025. |
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🎯 Actionable Trade Setup |
Watching: The satellite-connectivity theme broadly — and the eventual SpaceX listing as the purest play. Bias: Bullish on the connectivity buildout long-term; cautious on any single pre-IPO name. Strategy: The "services on top of connectivity" thesis is sound, but pre-IPO and Regulation A+ offerings carry serious risks — illiquidity, company-set valuations, no guarantee of a public listing. Treat any such investment as speculative capital only, and read the full offering circular first. Logic: The infrastructure story is real and verifiable. Any individual company's ability to capitalize on it is not guaranteed — diversify the theme rather than betting on one name.
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A QUIET DAY IS A GOOD DAY TO PLAN. |
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Today is a day off for the markets, and there's wisdom in treating it as a day off for your own anxiety too. Memorial Day is a moment to remember what the work of building and protecting wealth is ultimately for: the people and the freedoms it supports. Markets reopen Tuesday, and the week ahead will bring fresh Iran headlines, oil swings, and the ongoing march toward the June SpaceX listing. None of it needs your attention today. Use the quiet to do the one thing most investors never make time for — look at your whole picture. Is your cash cushion big enough for a volatile summer? Is any single position too large? Are you protected if the peace deal falls through for the seventh time? A calm holiday is the best possible time to ask those questions, precisely because nothing is forcing an answer. We'll see you Tuesday. |
🎯 Actionable Trade Setup |
Watching: Your own plan — cash level, concentration, and downside protection — not the ticker tape. Bias: Calm, prepared, balanced into a holiday-shortened week. Strategy: Use the closed market to review allocations rather than react. Keep extra cash for Tuesday's gap. Hold an energy hedge and hard assets against a peace deal that still isn't signed. The one rule for today: Rest. The market will give you plenty to do on Tuesday.
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📋 Trade Cheat Sheet — Tuesday's Open Watch (Markets Closed Today)
| TICKER |
THEME |
BIAS |
ACTION |
| XLE |
Iran deal / oil |
🟢 Bullish hedge |
Hold — deal still unsigned, $2M toll dispute |
| USO |
Tuesday oil gap |
⚖️ Watch |
Watch open — gap down may reverse like 6x before |
| TSLA |
Musk ecosystem |
⚖️ Neutral |
Long-term story, high concentration risk |
| SPY |
Record-high market |
⚖️ Cautious |
Priced for peace — vulnerable if talks fail |
| SGOV |
Holiday cash discipline |
🟢 Bullish |
Hold dry powder for Tuesday's gap, ~4.3% yield |
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📊 POLLWhen markets reopen Tuesday, what happens to oil? |
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