Companies are already delaying IPOs as SpaceX’s expected offering pulls capital toward what could be the biggest deal in market history. Bloomberg reported the shift, and Citigroup just joined the underwriting team. |
But smart money isn’t only chasing the IPO. They’re positioning in the one chokepoint supplier SpaceX depends on to stay online. |
Most investors may notice after the move. |
👉 See what insiders are buying before the IPO hits >> |
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🏛️ BONUS: The first NFP of the Warsh era. |
Friday's Jobs Print Is the First of the Warsh EraBLS releases the April number at 8:30 a.m. The towns that aren't in it are the same ones that haven't been in it since 2001. Friday morning at 8:30 a.m. eastern, the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the April employment situation. The whisper is around 175,000 jobs created. Wall Street will trade it. CNBC will explain it. The bond market will reprice the front end of the curve. And in Lordstown, Ohio, where General Motors closed the plant in 2019 and the EV restart didn't take, the number won't change anything that's already changed. This is the first NFP of the Warsh era. The 8-4 FOMC vote Wednesday was the most fractured policy decision in twenty years. Powell confirmed he is stepping down. Kevin Warsh chairs the committee starting June 16. The same Warsh who, as the youngest Fed governor in history at thirty-five, personally negotiated Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley's conversion to bank holding companies in September 2008. Connect the dots. That conversion is why those two banks are still standing. It is also why the bailout architecture stayed intact. Warsh helped build the system. Now he runs the institution that supplies it with cheap money. The first labor print on his watch tells you whether the system has any reason to acknowledge the parts of the country that did not get bailed out. Look at the labor force participation rate this Friday. Not the headline. The participation rate. Specifically, the prime-age (twenty-five to fifty-four) male participation rate, which has not recovered to its 2000 level despite twenty-six years of "expansions." That is not a measurement issue. That is a structural exit. The Autor, Dorn, Hanson papers documented where those workers went. They went out of the workforce. They went onto disability. They went to opioids. Toledo and Dayton can show you the receipts.
BLS measures the unemployed. It does not measure the disappeared.
The DC interpretation of any number above 150,000 will be that the labor market is "solid." Wall Street translates that into "Fed has cover for a September cut." Warsh's first public remarks as chair-in-waiting will be cribbed carefully from the Powell playbook because he wants the markup to hold. The pattern is clear: every Fed chair since Greenspan has talked about the labor market as a single thing. It has not been a single thing since China entered the WTO. There is the Manhattan labor market and there is the Mahoning Valley labor market, and they no longer share a vocabulary. Tuesday and Wednesday matter, tooTuesday afternoon AMD reports earnings. The pre-guided Q1 number includes only $100 million of MI308 sales to China, the rounding error left after the export controls. Watch the language Lisa Su uses around "diversified geographic exposure." That phrase is code for the workaround the export rules did not close. Anyone want to explain why Commerce announces new restrictions in March and the same accelerators ship through Singapore in April? Wednesday brings Coinbase earnings. The Trump-Treasury crypto framework is now law. Coinbase has positioned itself as the regulated American on-ramp. Watch the institutional deposit growth and the assets-under-management commentary. The story sold to retail in 2017 was that crypto would democratize finance. The story playing out in 2026 is that Wall Street took it over the moment Washington stopped fighting it. Sound familiar?
Watch for: Friday May 8, 8:30 a.m. eastern. Not the headline jobs number. The labor force participation rate. Below 62.4% and the structural exit has continued, and Warsh's first set of meetings will be conducted in front of a labor market no Fed model since the 1990s has been able to actually describe. They will talk about it anyway. — Jack Garrison, Chief Intelligence Officer
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