In partnership with Behind The Markets |
Dear Reader, |
SpaceX is going public. |
June 2026. $1.75 trillion - the largest IPO in history. |
And by the time the ticker hits Nasdaq — the easy money will already be gone. |
That's how it always works. |
Peter Thiel got in before Facebook's IPO for $500,000. |
His stake was worth $10 billion by the time the rest of us could buy a single share. |
The insiders always eat first. |
But this time, there's a way in. |
Elon Musk has a problem he doesn't talk about publicly. |
He's building the world's largest AI supercomputer — a million GPUs, clustered inside a Memphis warehouse — and the US electrical grid cannot feed it. |
Raw voltage from a transmission line would destroy the chips in a microsecond. |
You need custom-engineered infrastructure to step that power down and distribute it safely. |
Musk knows it. He said so himself: |
"The next shortage will be voltage step-down transformers. You've got to feed the power to these things." |
Lead times have gone from 20 weeks to over 120 weeks. |
There is one small, publicly traded American company that can move fast enough to close that gap. |
Wall Street hasn't noticed yet. |
Their backlog just crossed $1.5 billion. |
Five years ago, data centers were a rounding error in their revenue. Today, they're nearly half the business. |
The last time Wall Street woke up this late to a story like this — Vertiv, the data center power play — the stock went from $10 to $180 in under two years. |
This company is earlier in that same cycle. |
And it's still priced like a boring industrial stock. |
The full research — company name, ticker, buy-up-to price — is waiting for you. |
Along with a free backdoor play you can buy in any brokerage account today, before a single page of the S-1 has been made public. |
The filing is expected any day. |
The details are here. → |
The window is measured in weeks.
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THE STORY THIS WEEKEND: THE DEAL THAT'S ALWAYS "ALMOST" DONE |
If you only read the headline this morning, you'd think the war was over. |
President Trump posted Sunday that an agreement to end the Iran war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz has been "largely negotiated." A source told CNN that Iran will reopen the strait in the deal's first phase, with the nuclear question pushed to a second phase. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said "significant progress" has been made. For millions of Americans paying over $4 a gallon while traveling this Memorial Day weekend, it sounds like the relief everyone's been waiting for since February. |
Now read the other half of the story — the half that didn't make the headline. Iran's semi-official Fars news agency said early Sunday that Trump's claim Iran would give up control of the strait was "inconsistent with reality." Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman said the strait "had nothing to" do with the negotiations at all. The two sides are describing two completely different deals. And here's the part every retiree should sit with: this is at least the seventh time since the war began that a deal has been declared imminent. There was a two-week ceasefire in April that fell apart. There was the "very significant present" in March. There were the 48-hour ultimatums. Each time, oil dropped, stocks jumped, and within days the fine print collapsed and prices snapped back. We have seen this exact movie at least six times, and it has ended the same way every time. |
This isn't cynicism — it's pattern recognition, and it has real consequences for your money this week. The most important fact for Tuesday morning is structural: the U.S. stock market is closed Monday for Memorial Day. That means every twist in this weekend's Iran story — the optimistic Trump posts, the flat Iranian denials, whatever gets said between now and Tuesday — gets absorbed by the market all at once when it reopens Tuesday at 9:30 a.m. If a real, signed deal emerges, expect oil to gap down hard and stocks to gap up. If the talks collapse again like they have six times before, expect the opposite. Either way, Tuesday's open is set up to be unusually violent in one direction or the other, and nobody holding a position over the long weekend gets to react until it's already happened. |
So what does a sensible retiree do with a weekend like this? Not gamble on the headline. The investors who get hurt in moments like this are the ones who bet big on "the deal is finally real" — for the seventh time. The ones who sleep well are the ones who went into the long weekend balanced: some energy exposure that profits if talks fail and oil spikes, some cash ready to deploy into whatever Tuesday's gap creates, and no oversized bet riding on a single politician's social-media post holding up overnight. The peace may come eventually. But "largely negotiated" is not "signed," and your portfolio shouldn't confuse the two. |
| Item |
Status |
What It Means for Tuesday |
| Iran deal |
"Largely negotiated" |
Trump says yes; Iran publicly disputes it — ~7th time |
| Strait of Hormuz |
Still disputed |
Iran says it keeps control; US says it reopens |
| US markets Monday |
CLOSED |
Memorial Day — all weekend news hits Tuesday at once |
| Gas (national avg) |
Over $4/gal |
Holiday travel into the highest prices since 2022 |
| Dow (Fri close) |
Record high |
Priced for peace — vulnerable if talks fail again |
| SpaceX IPO |
June, ~$1.75T |
Largest IPO ever — roadshow expected early June |
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THE SECOND STORY: THE SHORTAGE HIDING UNDERNEATH THE AI BOOM |
Everyone is watching the wrong part of the AI story. |
The headlines are all about chips — Nvidia's earnings, the buybacks, the trillion-dollar valuations. But ask the people actually building these AI data centers what keeps them up at night, and they don't say chips. They say power. Specifically, they say the unglamorous equipment that takes raw electricity from a high-voltage transmission line and "steps it down" to a level that won't instantly fry a rack of delicate computer chips. It's called a voltage step-down transformer, and almost nobody outside the industry has ever thought about one. Right now, it's one of the biggest bottlenecks in the entire AI build-out. |
Here's how tight it's gotten. The wait time to order one of these large transformers has stretched from about 20 weeks a few years ago to more than 120 weeks today — nearly two and a half years. When a hyperscaler wants to build a data center, the chips can be ready in months, but the power equipment can take years. That's why you're now seeing reports of companies going to extraordinary lengths to secure power infrastructure, and why the handful of companies that manufacture this equipment suddenly have backlogs measured in the billions of dollars. This is the same lesson the railroads taught a century ago and the internet taught twenty-five years ago: when everyone rushes to build the same thing at once, the people who get rich aren't always the ones with the famous product. Often it's the ones who quietly supply the boring, essential component that the famous product can't run without. In the early internet, the "famous" companies were the dot-coms; the durable winners included the unglamorous firms that made the routers and switches. |
The investing question worth sitting with this weekend isn't "which AI chatbot wins." It's "what does every single one of them physically need, who makes it, and is that supplier still priced like the boring industrial company it used to be?" That's the kind of overlooked, pick-and-shovel question that one of this weekend's sponsors is built around. |
🔒 OBBBA Rule Watch — Tax Rule of the Weekend
The Qualified Charitable Distribution (QCD): Give to Charity, Skip the Tax
If you're 70½ or older and you give to charity, the Qualified Charitable Distribution is one of the most powerful and underused tools in the tax code. A QCD lets you donate up to $108,000 per year (2026 limit, indexed for inflation) directly from your IRA to a qualified charity — and the amount donated counts toward your Required Minimum Distribution while being completely excluded from your taxable income. That's better than taking the RMD, paying tax on it, and then donating: with a QCD, the money never appears as income at all. This matters even more under the permanent OBBBA tax framework, because keeping IRA withdrawals out of your reported income can also lower your Medicare premiums (which are income-based) and reduce the share of your Social Security that gets taxed. The donation must go directly from the IRA custodian to the charity — never pass through your own account.
Why it matters: For charitably inclined retirees, the QCD can be worth thousands per year in avoided taxes and lower Medicare premiums. If you're already giving to your church or a charity, doing it through a QCD instead of by check is often pure savings.
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Three things to carry into Tuesday. First, treat "largely negotiated" as exactly what it is — not a signed deal, but the seventh version of a story that has fallen apart six times. Don't reposition your whole portfolio on a weekend headline. Second, remember the market is closed Monday, so all of this weekend's news lands at once on Tuesday's open — keep some cash ready and don't be surprised by a sharp gap in either direction. Third, the quiet structural stories — the power bottleneck under the AI boom, the SpaceX listing coming in June — will still be true long after this particular Iran headline has faded. Those are worth more of your attention than the next "deal is close" post. Enjoy the holiday. We'll be back Tuesday. |
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