The second quarter had almost everything investors dislike. |
War in the Middle East. |
Inflation climbing back above 4%. |
A Federal Reserve suddenly talking about rate hikes instead of cuts. |
An AI selloff that erased trillions of dollars from the biggest technology companies. |
And yet... |
The S&P 500 gained nearly 15%, the Nasdaq surged more than 21%, and the Dow posted its best quarter since 2022, making this the strongest quarter for U.S. stocks since 2020. |
Tuesday added one more exclamation point. |
Technology stocks led the market higher, semiconductor shares jumped almost 4%, and the Nasdaq climbed 1.5% as investors shifted their attention away from geopolitical headlines and toward the next major catalyst: second-quarter earnings. |
Sometimes the headlines tell one story. |
The market tells another. |
|
|
⚡ Closing Bell:
→ Dow Jones: ▲ +0.26% to 52,319.20 › Closed at another record as investors capped off one of the strongest quarters in years.
→ S&P 500: ▲ +0.79% to 7,499.36 › Finished its best quarter since 2020 despite inflation and geopolitical uncertainty.
→ Nasdaq: ▲ +1.52% to 26,213.72 › Chipmakers powered the tech-heavy index sharply higher.
→ Russell 2000: ▲ +0.46% to 3,024.37 › Small caps finished another record close, capping their strongest first half since 1991 with a gain of nearly 22%. |
|
|
Macro Moves:
→ 10-Year Treasury Yield: ▲ to 4.42% › Yields climbed as stronger economic data kept rate-hike expectations alive.
→ 2-Year Treasury Yield: ▲ to 4.14% › Short-term yields rose as markets continued pricing at least one Fed hike this year.
→ Dollar Index (DXY): ▲ around 101.6 › The dollar capped a strong quarter as higher U.S. rate expectations supported demand.
→ Bitcoin: ▼ over 3% › Crypto slipped toward a 21-month low even as stocks finished the quarter strong.
|
❗❗❗ Looking Ahead:
The warm-up is over. |
Today brings the ADP Employment Report and ISM Manufacturing PMI, two important checkpoints before Thursday’s closely watched June jobs report, released a day early ahead of the Independence Day holiday. |
|
|
#TRUTH:
❗❗❗ ❝ The future depends on what you do today. ❞
~ Mahatma Gandhi |
|
|
|
|
|
The two investment legends who picked Nvidia 10 years ago are predicting that… |
By the end of this month, Elon Musk's new AI breakthrough they call "M.A.G.I…" |
Will collide with a strange market pattern with a flawless 100% track record of massive market gains. |
Click here to see the details because the last time this happened… |
Everyday folks had a chance to turn $10,000 into as much as $350,000 in just about 12 months. |
|
|
Beating Expectations Isn’t Enough |
|
|
Nike did what Wall Street usually rewards. |
It beat earnings.
It beat revenue. |
Its stock still fell to its lowest level since 2014. |
The sportswear giant reported $11.0 billion in revenue, topping expectations of $10.8 billion, while adjusted earnings came in at $0.20 per share, well above the $0.12 analysts expected. |
So why the selloff? |
Because the quarter came with an asterisk. |
Nike had already warned investors that its results would benefit from a one-time tariff refund, estimated to add roughly $0.52 per share to earnings. Strip away that boost, and the underlying business looked far less encouraging. |
Management also warned that the sales environment remains “challenged” as consumers continue pulling back and competition from brands like Adidas, New Balance, and Hoka intensifies. |
For investors, the report reinforced an old lesson. |
A company can beat estimates. |
But if investors believe those earnings aren’t repeatable, the stock can still lose the game.
|
|
|
Beyond the Launch Pad |
|
|
Launching rockets is only half the business. |
The real money increasingly comes after satellites reach orbit. |
That’s why Rocket Lab is spending $8 billion to acquire satellite communications company Iridium, a deal that immediately reignited interest across the space sector. |
Investors welcomed the move. |
Shares of Rocket Lab climbed, while Planet Labs, AST SpaceMobile, and Redwire also moved higher as traders bet the acquisition could signal another wave of consolidation across the industry. |
Rocket Lab called the acquisition “a shortcut” into satellite communications. |
Instead of building a customer network from scratch, the company gains Iridium’s 2.5 million subscribers, globally licensed spectrum, and an established communications business, transforming Rocket Lab from primarily a launch provider into a more diversified space infrastructure company. |
The timing is notable. |
Space stocks have endured a difficult stretch in recent weeks, with Rocket Lab down more than 35%, Planet Labs more than 40%, and AST SpaceMobile around 30% before Monday’s rally.
|
|
|
The Cost of Intelligence |
|
|
Anthropic unveiled Claude Sonnet 5, a new AI model designed to deliver performance close to its flagship systems at a fraction of the cost. The company says it can complete many of the autonomous, “agentic” tasks that recently required its most expensive models. |
The timing isn’t accidental. |
As businesses race to integrate AI into everyday workflows, they’re discovering that every prompt comes with a price tag. Companies including Meta, Amazon, and Uber have already begun cutting unnecessary AI usage as computing costs continue to climb. |
Anthropic is betting that efficiency will become just as important as intelligence. |
Rather than asking customers to pay more for a smarter model, it’s offering a model that’s smart enough for most jobs—and inexpensive enough to use far more often. |
The AI race isn’t slowing down. |
It’s just learning how to spend less.
|
|
|
Gains & Pains: |
Gains:
→ Nvidia (NVDA): ▲ +3.4% › AI enthusiasm returned as chipmakers powered the Nasdaq to its strongest day in weeks. |
→ Broadcom (AVGO): ▲ +4.5% › Continued riding the semiconductor rebound as investors rotated back into AI infrastructure. |
→ Micron (MU): ▲ +3.7% › Last week’s blockbuster earnings continued fueling optimism across memory stocks. |
→ Qualcomm (QCOM): ▲ +2.8% › AI momentum remained intact following its Modular acquisition and renewed data-center ambitions. |
😬 Pains:
→ Nike (NKE): ▼ ~2% (after hours) › Quarterly results disappointed investors despite steady revenue growth. |
|
|
Escapes: |
Cavern of Sonora📍 Texas 🇺🇸 |
|
|
|
|
Commodities Check : ✔️ |
→ WTI Crude: ▼ $70.19/barrel › Finished the quarter down 31% as easing Middle East tensions reduced supply fears. |
→ Brent Crude: ▼ $72.92/barrel › Logged its biggest quarterly decline since 2020, falling 38% over the quarter. |
→ Gold: ► Around $4,060/oz › Ended a difficult quarter as a stronger dollar and higher rate expectations pressured prices. |
→ Silver: ► Around $58.70/oz › Finished little changed after a volatile quarter for precious metals. |
→ Corn (Dec ‘26): ▲ $4.36/bushel › USDA reported tighter-than-expected inventories, lifting prices. |
→ Soybeans (Nov ‘26): ▲ $11.43¾/bushel › Ended modestly higher after USDA acreage estimates matched expectations. |
→ Wheat (Sep ‘26): ▲ $5.89¼/bushel › Lower-than-expected U.S. plantings helped prices rebound.
|
|
|
The stinger: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Disclaimer |
This letter is not offering investment, trading, or investment advice nor is based on any individual portfolio or business operation. We are not a registered investment, stock nor commodity advisor. One should consult with their own registered advisor to discuss investment strategies that are appropriate for their business or personal goals, risk tolerance and financial situation. Information in this report and on any website is derived from a variety of source believed to be reliable however no representation is made that the information is accurate, complete or correct. These lessons, newsletter and site content is not intended nor shall not constitute or be construed as an offer or recommendation to “buy”, “sell”, “trade” or invest in any securities, commodities, futures, options or other asset referred to in said lessons, reports or newsletters. Rather, this research is intended to identify situations and circumstances that those in the trading community should be aware of to better help assess and improve their own risk management skills. |
|
|
Was this email forwarded to you? Don’t miss out on future stories — subscribe using the button below.
Also, help your friends blossom this spring! Share us with them. |
|
|
|
|
💬 We Want To Hear Your Story: |
Just drop your request in the comments here. |
|
|
P.S. - If you no longer want to receive occasional emails from us and you want to unsubscribe, click here 👉 “Unsubscribe” . Thank you! |
|
|
|
|
Disclaimer |
This letter is not offering investment, trading, or investment advice nor is based on any individual portfolio or business operation. We are not a registered investment, stock nor commodity advisor. One should consult with their own registered advisor to discuss investment strategies that are appropriate for their business or personal goals, risk tolerance and financial situation. Information in this report and on any website is derived from a variety of source believed to be reliable however no representation is made that the information is accurate, complete or correct. These lessons, newsletter and site content is not intended nor shall not constitute or be construed as an offer or recommendation to “buy”, “sell”, “trade” or invest in any securities, commodities, futures, options or other asset referred to in said lessons, reports or newsletters. Rather, this research is intended to identify situations and circumstances that those in the trading community should be aware of to better help assess and improve their own risk management skills. |
This publication is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment, trading, or financial advice and is not based on any individual’s financial circumstances, goals, or risk tolerance. We are not registered investment, stock, or commodity advisors. Always consult a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions. |
Information provided in this newsletter (and on any affiliated website) is obtained from sources believed to be reliable; however, accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Opinions expressed are those of the authors and are subject to change without notice. |
From time to time, this publication may include sponsored content, affiliate links, or advertisements. Such inclusions do not constitute endorsements, and any compensation received does not influence the analysis or opinions presented. TradingLessons is not affiliated with, nor does it verify or guarantee the claims, products, or services of any sponsor or advertiser. Readers should perform their own due diligence before engaging with any advertised offerings. |
Nothing herein should be interpreted as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation to buy, sell, or trade any security, commodity, derivative, or other financial instrument. This content is intended solely to highlight market developments and educational insights to help readers enhance their understanding of trading and risk management.
|
0 التعليقات:
إرسال تعليق