S&P And Nasdaq Closed Higher Last Week, All Eyes On This Week's Inflation Reports And Start Of Earnings SeasonStocks closed mostly higher on Friday, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq and S&P 500 both up for the week. Last week's FOMC Minutes packed no surprises. We already knew a growing number of Fed officials favored a rate hike if inflation failed to ease. But there was no consensus on timing. They described the labor market as resilient. And they reaffirmed their plan to continue their balance sheet runoff at the current pace. With inflation still a key focal point, all eyes will shift to this week's Consumer Price Index (CPI – retail inflation) on Tuesday, 7/14, and the Producer Price Index (PPI – wholesale inflation) on Wednesday, 7/15. Recent increases in inflation, in large part, have been attributed to the rise in oil prices, as a result of the U.S.-Iran war. But since the last FOMC meeting in June, the Memorandum of Understanding between the U.S. and Iran has further eased oil prices. (From the conflict highs in April, crude oil is down -39.3%.) And falling oil prices should lead to lower inflation, which in turn could cool the rate hike talk. Some of that should be reflected in this week's inflation reports. And while the fragile ceasefire has come under strain (Iran has fired on several tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, and the U.S. has retaliated by launching strikes on Iran for the last 3-4 days), full scale fighting has not resumed. And that's why recent peak oil prices are not expected to return. Although, tensions do appear to be ratcheting up from where they were just a couple of weeks ago. Q2 earnings season unofficially kicks off this week when the big banks start reporting. While Tech is the top weighted sector in the S&P at roughly 32%, Financials are number two with roughly 13% weighting. So all eyes will be on financials this week to get an early read on how earnings are looking. Earnings season is always an exciting time since stocks typically go up during earnings season. The market will also be watching developments in the Middle East to see if tensions escalate even further, or if they begin to ease once again. We'll also see if the market can build on last week's gains. The S&P 500, for example, is only 0.50% away from its all-time high from earlier last month. The Nasdaq has a bit more to go as they are off 3.34% from their all-time high. But that could be made up within one or two good days. Should be a busy week this week. And if the major indexes can retake their old highs, that could very well be the beginning of the next leg up. See you tomorrow,  Kevin Matras
Executive Vice President, Zacks Investment Research |
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