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(Nasdaq: SAFX) Lands On The Market Crux Watchlist This Morning
— August 10, 2026
Don’t Miss Our Next Update—Get Real-Time Alerts Sent Directly To Your Phone. Up To 10X Faster Than Email. Get SAFX On Your Radar While It’s Still Early…
August 10, 2026 Dear Reader, The bell is about 90 minutes away — and SAFX is still the name at the top of the Market Crux focus list as Monday morning gets underway. XCF Global, Inc. (Nasdaq: SAFX) confirmed in an August 7, 2026 operational update that New Rise Renewables Reno had produced renewable diesel and completed initial fuel sales following its planned upgrade program. The July 7, 2026 definitive agreements with BGN INT US LLC are in active use — initial sales are proceeding and the commercial ramp is advancing. According to Benzinga, Amit Dayal at H.C. Wainwright set a $1 Bullish target on SAFX suggesting over 170% upside potential from Friday's $0.37 range — established before initial fuel sales were confirmed. If you missed last night's report, here is the one piece of context worth having before the open: earlier this summer, SAFX made an approximate 80% move in under a month per Barchart — before production, before the upgrade was finished, and before first sales were on the tape. Every development since has moved the story forward. The full Market Crux breakdown is now live. Pull it up before the bell. 
The operational update is the headline — but there is more behind this name than one press release. XCF signed a definitive Business Combination Agreement on April 13, 2026 with Southern Energy Renewables and a Nasdaq-listed carbon management company — a three-party combination designed to build a platform that goes well beyond what New Rise Reno represents today. Southern Energy contributes a planned 28M-gallon-per-year eSAF project in Louisiana. The carbon management partner brings an environmental asset platform that generates revenue from the same fuel production already underway at Reno. A preliminary proxy was filed July 27, 2026, with July 29 as the shareholder record date. The combined 2027 targets sit at $775M–$825M in gross product sales, $110M–$120M in net revenue, and $65M–$70M in EBITDA. Every one of those figures was established before XCF confirmed initial fuel sales at Reno. See full story here. On the regulatory side, the numbers work in the sector's favor. The 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit runs through December 31, 2029 — up to $1.75 per qualifying gallon on a carbon intensity sliding scale. D4 RINs under the Renewable Fuel Standard and California's LCFS add further per-gallon value, depending on fuel pathway, carbon intensity, feedstock eligibility, and other applicable requirements. XCF's feedstock base — used cooking oil, animal fats, agricultural co-products — sits at the low end of the carbon intensity spectrum, which positions New Rise Reno near the top of the credit range on a per-gallon basis. See full story here. Put it together and the picture heading into Monday looks like this: initial fuel sales confirmed, commercial ramp advancing, a three-party merger in the shareholder approval process, and a regulatory credit structure that runs through the end of the decade. What XCF Global Actually Does — And Why The Business Model Behind SAFX Matters Right Now
XCF Global is a Houston, Texas-based producer of renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel. Its flagship facility, New Rise Renewables Reno, is located in Nevada with a permitted nameplate capacity of 38 Mln gallons per year. The plant uses HEFA technology under an Axens license with Alfa Laval pretreatment equipment, converting waste- and residue-based feedstocks into renewable diesel, renewable naphtha, and blended SAF. Following a planned upgrade program, the facility restarted operations, produced renewable diesel, and completed initial fuel sales — with ongoing optimization work designed to support reliability and long-term commercial performance. That sequence — upgrade, restart, production, sales — is what puts SAFX at the top of our focus list today. See full story here. XCF came to Nasdaq through a business combination with Focus Impact BH3 Acquisition Company. The commercial backbone of Reno's operations is the BGN INT tolling agreement — six years, covering 100% of feedstock supply and positioning BGN INT as the priority offtake partner for all renewable fuel produced at the facility. That agreement converted a prior binding term sheet into a fully executed commercial framework. See full story here. Beyond Reno, the development pipeline includes New Rise Reno 2, Fort Myers FL, Wilson NC, and a 15-year international licensing agreement with New Rise Australia for three facilities in Western Australia, South Australia, and Queensland. The pending three-party merger with Southern Energy Renewables and a Nasdaq-listed carbon management company — with a preliminary proxy filed July 27, 2026 and a shareholder record date of July 29 — would expand the platform significantly if closed. U.S. Jet Fuel Climbed 70% In A Year — Here Is Why Domestic Renewable Fuel Looks Different
Aviation cannot electrify at commercial scale in the near term. Battery-electric aircraft are not viable at range or payload. Hydrogen-powered flight remains years from deployment. SAF is the only pathway that exists right now — a chemical drop-in for conventional jet fuel that works in existing aircraft and existing infrastructure, reducing lifecycle carbon emissions by up to 80% without a single modification to the planes burning it. The supply gap is severe. Roughly 40 facilities produce SAF globally today. Getting to net-zero aviation by 2050 requires something closer to 7,000. Annual global SAF demand is expected to reach approximately 5.5 Bln gallons by 2030, according to XCF's corporate presentation, against current capacity that covers a fraction of that. The U.S. SAF Grand Challenge targets 3 Bln gallons of domestic annual production by 2030. New Rise Reno is one of only five SAF-capable facilities operating in the United States. That is the competitive context. See full story here. The buyer base extends well beyond airlines. Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Nike, FedEx, UPS, and DHL have all made formal SAF purchasing commitments as part of Scope 3 emissions strategies — and blending mandates across the EU, UK, China, India, Canada, and Brazil are creating demand that domestic production is not yet built to satisfy. U.S. jet fuel prices climbed roughly 70% year-over-year as of mid-2026, driven by disruptions to conventional crude supply routes. Renewable fuel made from local waste feedstocks carries a cost structure with no exposure to Middle Eastern crude benchmarks. That supply chain independence is what fuel buyers are actively asking for. XCF is producing that fuel today. Everything That Has Happened With SAFX Since April — And Why It Matters Monday Morning
August 7, 2026 — XCF confirmed that New Rise Reno had produced renewable diesel and completed initial fuel sales following its planned upgrade program. July 27, 2026 — XCF filed a preliminary proxy statement tied to its three-party business combination, with July 29, 2026 set as the shareholder record date. July 9, 2026 — New Rise Renewables Reno began producing renewable diesel, marking the transition from commissioning to expected revenue-generating operations. July 7, 2026 — XCF executed definitive agreements with BGN INT US LLC, establishing a six-year tolling structure covering 100% of feedstock supply with BGN INT as priority offtake partner. June 23, 2026 — Amit Dayal at H.C. Wainwright initiated Bullish coverage on SAFX with a $1 target, ahead of the July production start and the subsequent initial fuel sales confirmation. April 13, 2026 — XCF signed a definitive Business Combination Agreement with Southern Energy Renewables and a Nasdaq-listed carbon management company, with combined 2027 gross product sales targets of $775M–$825M. 7 Reasons We Are Watching SAFX First Thing Monday Morning — August 10, 2026… 1. Analyst Target Set: Amit Dayal at H.C. Wainwright set a $1 Bullish target on SAFX—suggesting over 170% upside from its recent $0.36 range, according to Benzinga. 2. Moved Approx. 80% Already: SAFX made an approximate 80% move in under a month this past summer—from around $0.33 on June 16 to $0.60 on July 10 per Barchart—and that happened before first fuel sales were confirmed. 3. First Sales Confirmed: New Rise Reno completed initial renewable diesel sales per the August 7 operational update—the story has moved from production into commercial execution. 4. Facility Upgrade Complete: The planned upgrade program at New Rise Reno is finished—lower-temperature operating parameters and updated process conditions are now in place to support long-term commercial performance. 5. Commercial Deal Working: Initial fuel sales are proceeding under the six-year tolling structure with BGN INT—covering 100% of feedstock supply and serving as priority offtake partner for all renewable fuel produced at New Rise Reno. 6. Big Merger Pending: A definitive business combination with Southern Energy Renewables and a Nasdaq-listed carbon management company is working through the shareholder approval process—a corporate event that could materially expand the SAFX platform. 7. Policy Support Through 2029: The 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit—up to $1.75 per qualifying gallon, extended through December 2029—stacks with D4 RINs and LCFS credits to build a multi-layer regulatory revenue base around SAFX's fuel production. Get SAFX On Your Radar While It’s Still Early…
This is the kind of setup that Market Crux puts in front of readers — and the story behind SAFX is still developing. New Rise Reno has moved into initial fuel sales, the planned upgrade is complete, and the facility is advancing through its commercial ramp. SAFX has already shown strong recent momentum, including an approximate 80% move from June 16 to July 10, according to Barchart. Amit Dayal at H.C. Wainwright has placed a $1 Bullish target on SAFX, which suggests over 170% upside potential from Friday's $0.37 range, while the BGN INT framework and pending three-party business combination add more developments to watch. The key from here is execution — and Market Crux has all eyes on SAFX this morning. Our next update could be hitting very soon, so keep checking back. Sincerely, Gary Silver
Managing Editor,
Market Crux |
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