That number is 6%. THE PRIVATE CREDIT DESK Fitch Ratings reported the private credit default rate climbed to 6% through Q2 2026. That is a 5-year record. The Wall Street Journal found that loan defaults at funds managed by Ares Management, Blackstone, Blue Owl Capital, and Golub Capital all touched their highest levels since at least 2021. The Federal Reserve Bank of Boston published a paper in August 2026 examining 168 BDCs. Their finding: the share of BDC loans carrying payment-in-kind (PIK) terms rose from 5.4% in Q1 2022 to 9.8% in Q1 2026. PIK loans mean the borrower is not paying interest in cash. They are adding unpaid interest to the loan principal. The debt balance keeps growing. The cash never arrives. At the same time, private credit fundraising hit $190 billion in the first half of 2026. A 53% increase over H1 2025. More money chasing worse credits. Spreads on new direct-lending deals compressed from 300 basis points above leveraged loans in 2017-2018 to below 100 basis points today. This is not a reason to avoid private credit. It is a reason to be selective. The difference between a performing BDC and a non-performing BDC is not the asset class. It is the manager. THE IPO PIPELINE SpaceX priced its IPO at $135 per share on June 12, 2026. Nasdaq: SPCX. The company raised $75 billion. The order book was four times oversubscribed, with more than $250 billion in orders. This week, SPCX is trading near $139.65. Pre-IPO secondary buyers who accessed SpaceX shares through Forge Global's marketplace before June 12 paid implied valuations below the $135 offer price. The IPO was the exit. Not the entry. The SEC is moving fast on the pipeline. On May 19, 2026, under the "Make IPOs Great Again" agenda, the Commission proposed broader Form S-3 shelf access and modernized S-1 requirements. Goldman Sachs projects 100 IPOs and $160 billion raised in 2026. SPAC issuance hit 118 deals and $20.9 billion raised in H1 2026, nearly double last year's pace. THE CROWDFUNDING PULSE The SEC reform push extends downstream. The May 2026 proposals expand access for emerging growth companies and lower disclosure thresholds under Reg CF and Reg A+. Republic, Wefunder, and StartEngine are processing more deals. For investors who cannot meet accredited investor thresholds, Reg CF platforms now offer a structured entry point into early-stage deals that previously required venture capital relationships. The minimum bar is dropping. The pipeline is widening. THE CASHFLOW QUADRANT APPLIED The EA deal is a clean case study in who wins and who doesn't when a company goes private. In the E and S quadrant: analysts expect significant layoffs at Electronic Arts. A leveraged buyout adds $18 billion in new debt to a company's balance sheet. The first action PE owners take is headcount reduction to service interest payments. The employees create the product. They have no stake in the outcome. In the B and I quadrant: the Saudi PIF, Silver Lake, and Affinity Partners own the company. Their equity benefits from every dollar of debt paid down. They set the exit timeline. They control the decisions. This is what my rich dad meant: "Employees make the most per hour. Owners keep the most per decade." The EA deal closed August 4, 2026. The take-private playbook is running again. Two mega-deals in three weeks is not noise. It is a signal. |
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