Dear Reader,
At 8:30 this morning, the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the August Consumer Price Index. It is the last inflation reading Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will see before his first rate decision. Wall Street is holding its breath. We are watching something else entirely.
The headline number will be close to 3.4%. That is what economists expect. But the component that tells you where this economy is really going will be buried on page 4 of the release. Today, we dig it out.
Inside today's issue:
- The energy wildcard: Why gasoline up 24.6% year-over-year is the number Washington is hoping you skip past
- The Gates signal: Bill Gates just spent $164.7 million on a company that collects your garbage. The trade has no 10b5-1 plan. It is a clean buy.
- The investor angle: What both of these signals say about where serious capital is positioning before the Fed's September decision
- James Altucher: Elon's next move will mint 1.8 million new millionaires. Here's what he found.
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WHAT HAPPENED
The BLS August CPI report drops at 8:30am Eastern today. The consensus forecast: 3.3% to 3.4% year-over-year. The Cleveland Fed nowcast has it at 3.38%. On the surface, inflation looks flat. Under the surface, energy is doing the real work.
July's CPI showed energy up 14.7% annually. Gasoline up 24.6%. Iran war tensions and OPEC production decisions pushed crude higher through August. Wells Fargo estimates gasoline prices climbed another 4% last month alone. That kind of energy inflation compounds. It does not stay in the energy column. It bleeds into transportation, food production, and every business that moves goods from one place to another.
Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield is sitting at 4.78%. The bond market is pricing in inflation risk that the Fed's official messaging refuses to validate. M2 money supply hit a new all-time high of $23.2 trillion in July. The government is spending $95 billion per month on debt interest alone. And the August CPI is supposed to tell us inflation is cooling.
One person is not waiting for the official verdict. While economists debate basis points, Bill Gates's private investment vehicle quietly spent $164.7 million buying shares of Republic Services, the nation's second-largest waste hauler. No 10b5-1 plan. No pre-scheduled trades. Pure open-market conviction. He bought 735,303 shares at prices between $222 and $225 on September 3 and 4.
Why a garbage company? The answer is more interesting than most people think. Hold that thought.
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THE INVESTOR ANGLE
Republic Services is not a glamour stock. It is infrastructure. It picks up trash, processes it, and collects fees from municipalities under long-term contracts. Those contracts are indexed to inflation. When prices rise, Republic's revenue rises with them. Gates's Cascade Investment already owned over 37% of the company before these purchases. He did not need to buy more. He chose to.
That distinction matters. A 10b5-1 plan is a pre-scheduled trading program set up months in advance. The SEC requires executives to report it. Cascade's September purchases show no such plan. That means Gates or his investment team made a deliberate, real-time decision to add $164 million to a position they already dominated. Insiders do not write nine-figure checks when they think the environment is deteriorating.
The thesis converges with today's CPI story. If inflation stays elevated, if energy stays high, if the Fed holds longer than markets expect, the companies that charge inflation-linked rates for essential services become the most defensible positions in a portfolio. Not tech. Not rate-sensitive growth. Toll roads. Water systems. Trash routes.
The 8:30 print will move markets. But the more important signal came eight days ago, quietly, in a Form 4 filing. Serious money does not wait for the headline to tell it what to do. It positions before the data lands.
Stay free.
Chris Carroll
Publisher, Freedom Financial News
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QUICK HITS
August CPI Preview: What the Inflation Data Is Expected to Show The BLS releases August inflation data this morning. Headline CPI is forecast at 3.3-3.4%. Energy prices, pushed higher by Iran tensions, are the wildcard. Core inflation may hold steadier than the headline suggests, giving the Fed cover to stay on hold in September.
Man Who Called SpaceX Rise Says Elon's NEW Project Is Even Bigger Renowned tech investor James Altucher said Nvidia, Apple and SpaceX would soar years before Wall Street believed him. Now he says Elon Musk's latest project will be even bigger than SpaceX, minting up to 1.8 million new millionaires. He's sharing the details in a free video.
Gates-Backed Cascade Buys $164M of Republic Services in Open-Market Trades Bill Gates's private investment vehicle purchased 735,303 shares of RSG on September 3 and 4 with no 10b5-1 plan on file. Cascade already holds over 37% of the waste hauler. Michael Larson, Gates's longtime investment chief, sits on Republic's board.
Larry Benedict's Energy Skimming Strategy When the market crashed 37% in 2008, Larry Benedict made $95 million for his clients. Now he says rising energy prices are creating one of the biggest opportunities in 40 years. He says you don't need to own a single oil stock to profit.
Supreme Court Strikes Down IEEPA Tariffs; Trump Imposes 10% Global Levy The Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that Trump lacked authority to impose sweeping tariffs under emergency economic powers. Trump responded the same day with a new 10% global tariff under Section 122. Canada retaliated with $20 billion in duties on 700 U.S. products.
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P.S. Millions of Americans made the same bet on Cisco in 2000. It crashed 86%. Now Alexander Green — chief investment strategist of America's oldest private investment research club — says the same thing is setting up with Nvidia. But there's a way to be on the right side of it. Get the full story before it's too late
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In Case You Missed it… |
Jeff Bezos is terrified. |
He will be down on his knees, hands out, begging Elon for mercy. |
Because Elon is about to do something that will: |
Cut Amazon out of the AI race ENTIRELY… |
Completely DESTROY Blue Origin… |
And take control of the potential $25 TRILLION DOLLAR PER YEAR AI INDUSTRY |
And in his wake, potentially create 1,806,000 NEW millionaires over the coming years… |
Starting September 25. |
And this is your chance to be one of them. |
Elon Musk is currently quietly planning the biggest project of his entire career. |
And a single FCC filing proves it, click here to see why. |
This is bigger than Tesla, SpaceX, and X combined. |
And I believe it will not only cement Elon as the winner of the AI race… |
It will allow Elon to control the entire industry. |
Something of this magnitude has never happened in the history of the human race. |
And it’s happening FAST. |
According to my timeline, you must act by September 25. |
I explain everything right here. |
>>>This is your free Millionaire Maker Masterclass… and it starts right now. |
Sincerely,
James Altucher
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P.S. I am giving away a gift worth $1,000 to the first 1,000 people who watch and take action on my Masterclass offer today. No purchase necessary. ZERO credit card required. Just click here to watch my free video, and I’ll show you how to claim yours.
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