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Anthropic has promised to spend $417 billion, according to its IPO prospectus. |
That money goes to a short list of public companies. And Wall Street has spent the last two days figuring out who’s on the list. |
The number comes from Anthropic’s IPO filing. It covers minimum payments for chips and computing power over the next several years, and most of it can’t be canceled. Anthropic expects to need another $125 billion to $150 billion of capacity from 2028 to 2031. |
Before the filing, the semiconductor index was in bear-market territory and AI bubble talk was everywhere. Since then, it’s up roughly 6% in two days. |
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Now for the part chip investors care about. Here’s where a big chunk of that $417 billion is headed. |
Broadcom (Nasdaq: AVGO): about $161 billion, the largest single commitment, mostly tied to Google’s TPU chips. Broadcom also reportedly set up a roughly $63 billion financing deal tied to Anthropic’s use of its chips. The stock rose 2.3% on Monday and kept climbing Tuesday. |
Alphabet (Nasdaq: GOOGL): about $114.5 billion for Google Cloud and TPUs. The stock barely moved. |
Amazon (Nasdaq: AMZN): about $110 billion, largely for AWS and its in-house Trainium chips. It rose about 1%. |
Nvidia (Nasdaq: NVDA) and AMD (Nasdaq: AMD): both on the list, because Anthropic runs its models on chips from several suppliers. Nvidia rose 2.4% on Monday. AMD rose 2.8% and then added another 4% to 5% on Tuesday. |
Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT): also on the list. It rose about 1%. |
Then there’s a second wave: companies that sell to the companies Anthropic is paying. |
Lumentum (Nasdaq: LITE) jumped 8.2% on Monday, one of the best moves in the S&P 500. Coherent (NYSE: COHR) rose 5.8%. Both make the optical parts that move data between AI chips. Micron (Nasdaq: MU) rose about 3% on demand for memory chips. |
CoreWeave (Nasdaq: CRWV) was beaten down earlier this month on debt worries. It bounced about 7.7% on Tuesday. |
Here’s what stands out to me. |
Google and Amazon are expected to receive roughly $225 billion from Anthropic combined. Yet their stocks barely moved. The market rewarded the smaller, more focused chip names instead. |
That makes sense. $110 billion spread across several years is a lot less important to Amazon than $161 billion is to Broadcom. |
ANT is expected to start trading the week of November 16. I’ll be watching how these suppliers trade as the debut gets closer. |
One new cybersecurity Pre-IPO is now open to investors – for the very first time. I’m personally investing in the deal. And you can join me by investing at the ground floor. |
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Ian Wyatt
Editor, IPO Watch |
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