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Oura was supposed to be one of the big fall IPOs. Instead, the smart ring maker pulled its $2.1 billion deal at the end of September, citing uncertainty in the IPO market. |
It was a fitting end to a choppy third quarter. |
Here's the Q3 IPO report card, using data from Renaissance Capital. |
Deal count: 30
Money raised: $32.8 billion
Returns: -0.1% average return
Pipeline: 221 companies filed and waiting |
Want to get my top 5 Pre-IPOs for the next 3-months? Here’s the link. |
What went wrong? |
Concerns about AI spending, a 19-year high in bond yields, and renewed rate hikes all weighed on the fall pickup. A string of postponements followed, including a high-profile delay from SB Energy, which filed for an estimated $5 billion IPO. |
Pricing got tougher too. About 30% of the quarter's IPOs priced below their range, a high-water mark for recent periods. Data center operator Csquare finished the quarter down 25%. Jersey Mike's is down 27% from its summer IPO. |
In July I wrote that Q3 could top the second quarter. That was based on the idea that Anthropic would go public in September. The AI giant hasn’t yet filed. |
Q2 brought 48 deals and $104.8 billion. |
There were real bright spots. SK hynix, the Korean memory chip giant, raised $26.5 billion in the largest listing since SpaceX. It ended the quarter up 24%. |
Biotechs claimed six of the ten best performers, led by Vogenx (+75%) and Apnimed (+37%). |
Consumer brands like Jersey Mike's and Reformation also came back to market. Both have struggled since, but their return shows the window is widening beyond AI. |
The bigger picture still looks good. |
The Renaissance IPO Index fell 11.5% in Q3. It's still up 15.9% this year, versus 12.7% for the S&P 500. |
Now for Q4. Anthropic is expected to headline the quarter, and reports point to a November listing. It hasn't made its filing public yet. Its last private valuation was $965 billion. OpenAI has pushed its plans to 2027. |
Behind Anthropic, 221 companies are on file to raise $21.7 billion. Nscale, Aggreko, and Cumberland Farms are on that list. Private giants like Switch, Westinghouse, and Inspire Brands are also preparing to go public. |
My take: I'm cautiously optimistic. The pipeline is full and volatility is relatively low. What the market needs now is a few weeks of stability and a smooth Anthropic debut. |
Don’t chase IPOs like Anthropic and OpenAI after they go public. Instead, you can legally “front-run” these deals and buy shares before the listing. |
Simply go here and I’ll show you how. |
Ian Wyatt
Editor, IPO Watch |
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