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A Message from Monument Traders Alliance
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Yours in smart speculation,
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Warsh Speaks Monday, Retail Sales Tuesday, Fed Minutes Wednesday
Three scheduled events stand out in the coming trading week: the Fed chair on Monday, shopper spending on Tuesday and a look inside the Fed's last meeting on Wednesday. Each one can shift what investors think about interest rates.
1. Fed Chair Warsh speaks Monday at 12 p.m. ET
Kevin Warsh is scheduled to give opening remarks on Monday, Nov. 16, at 12 p.m. ET, according to the Federal Reserve's calendar. The event is a San Francisco conference for the Fed's productivity and jobs task force.
The task force is assessing the economic impact of new general-purpose technologies. The agenda also has Warsh moderating panels and a fireside chat.
A speech has no consensus forecast. For context, the Fed's last decision came on Oct. 28, when it held its benchmark rate at 3.75% to 4% on a 10-2 vote. Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack voted no, preferring a quarter-point increase.
2. October retail sales, Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. ET
The Census Bureau's release schedule lists October retail sales for 8:30 a.m. ET on Tuesday, Nov. 17. The report measures what Americans spent at stores and restaurants, and consumer spending drives most of the economy.
The prior reading, for September, was a 0.8% rise from August to $745.0 billion. August was revised up to 1.3%. Trading Economics' own forecast for October, as read on Nov. 13, is a 0.6% rise.
One catch: Census says these figures are not adjusted for price changes. Higher prices can lift the total even when shoppers are not buying more.
3. Fed meeting minutes, Wednesday at 2 p.m. ET
The Fed is scheduled to release minutes of its Oct. 27-28 meeting on Wednesday, Nov. 18, at 2 p.m. ET. Minutes are a written account of what officials debated, published about three weeks later. The Oct. 28 statement said inflation remains elevated.
There is no consensus number here. The comparison point is the last set: minutes of the Sept. 15-16 meeting came out on Oct. 7.
The minutes can show how deep the split behind the 10-2 vote ran, and whether more officials were weighing a hike.
What It Means for You
The Fed's benchmark rate sets the tone for mortgage rates, savings yields and the price investors put on stocks. That is why a chair's remarks and a set of minutes get so much attention.
Retail sales are a reading on the consumer, but one month of data is noisy and often revised, as August's was.
The risk in any rate-sensitive week is that a hawkish tone, meaning a lean toward higher rates, can pressure stocks and bonds at the same time. Nobody can know in advance how any of these three events will be received.
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