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Source: Energy Intelligence |
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What drew them close? |
Isolation and sanctions. Both states face boycotts and sanctions. They are also isolated from Western financial systems. Plus, there are both at war. Their economies need incomes. In that situation, it was crucial for them to diversify. They had to cooperate to bypass sanctions and trade outside the dollar system. |
Weapons and wars. For over 20 years, Russia has been a key arms supplier for Iran. In the 2000’s, Russia represented 85% of Iran’s arms imports. The latter then produced and used its own weapons. But it still purchases some systems from Russia, like air defenses. But wars also drew them together. They both actively supported Bashar Al Assad in Syria. Their intervention forced them to coordinate operations, logistics and intel sharing. Iran then supported Russia against Ukraine by providing drones. In return, Russia is now subtly supporting Iran in its war against the U.S. and Israel. |
Anti-West alignment. Russia and Iran share a common vision on the West. They both present themselves as resisting the sanctions and boycotts system. They also highlight that they oppose Western hegemony. They promote a new world order, along with Belarus and North Korea. |
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Extent of the partnership |
Military. Iran provided drones and technical assistance to Russia. It also assisted in building drone factories. Leaked documents revealed a 1,75 billion USD drone deal paid in gold ingots. Other deals include the supply of Russian air defense systems to Iran. These systems include advanced long-range missiles and MANPADS. U.S. reports also say Russia provided intel support with real-time data on U.S. positions. Yet, there is no mutual defense deal planned. |
Economic. In recent years, Russia and Iran increased trade in many sectors. They developed joint oil and gas projects. They also made deals on agriculture, telecoms, and technology. They enhanced coordination to bypass sanctions. They already linked their financial messaging systems. They also plan to enhance interbank cooperation and share payment systems. They both promote the use of national currencies and gold in trade. They also plan to create a joint shipping company. |
Diplomatic. Russia condemned the strikes by U.S.-Israel on Iran. Both last year and in the ongoing war. With China, they convened emergency UN Security Council sessions to denounce violations of Iran’s sovereignty. Moscow also received Iran’s officials and reiterated its support. But it will not take an active part in Iran’s conflicts, militarily speaking. |
Scientific. Last year, Iran and Russia signed a 25 billion USD nuclear power plant deal. Russia will help built 4 small nuclear power plants in Iran to tackle power shortages. Russia was already the one to help Iran finish the Bushehr plant after Germany dropped out following the revolution. Russia even had hundreds of employees there, evacuated because of the war. Iran also launched 3 satellites from Russia. It used Russian rockets as part of a cooperation with Roscosmos. |
Behind a shared front, each pursue its own interests |
Iran and Russia strengthened their ties amid global pressure, wars, and sanctions. But they still put their own interests first. They sometimes follow an agenda that is not in favor of the other. |
Russia maintains ties with Gulf states and Israel despite the war. Couple years ago, it supported the UAE on disputed islands with Iran in the Ormuz Strait, which angered the latter. Indeed, Russia’s priority is to secure energy cooperation and economic ties with the GCC states. They offer greater profits and stability for business than Iran. The same logic applies with Israel, who maintained relations and trade with Russia, and did not impose sanctions. It is also in Iran’s interest to stay cautious. Russia’s relations with key EU states and entities have eroded since Ukraine. Iran already faced the backlashes of its support to Russia and the repression on its citizens. But EU always preferred diplomacy and negotiations rather than open war with Iran. The latter does not want more escalation with the EU, nor get further dragged into a Russia-Europe conflict. |
This is likely why no mutual defense clause was signed between the states. It would mark a strong military alliance. It would bind them support each other more directly. That could harm their own interests. Plus, they each have their own war to fight. They cannot afford to disperse. |
The relations between Russia and Iran sure evolved. But they are not allies. They subtly navigate between alignment and caution, putting their agenda first. This means that if one of them reaches an acceptable deal with the adversaries, the partnership might be left behind. Plus, this relation relies a lot on the regimes in power in both countries. But these regimes are contested, globally and domestically. In case of a regime change, the next government can be pro-West, which could influence the trajectory of these ties. |
Decoding geopolitics isn’t a job. It’s survival. |
Joy |
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