SpaceX (Nasdaq: SPCX) just broke below its IPO price for the first time. |
Shares fell to an all-time low of $122 — below the $135 IPO price. |
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That's a steep pullback from a stock that traded above $225 in the days right after it went public. Shares have lost ground nearly every week since. |
Only about 4% of SpaceX's shares are trading on the Nasdaq. That tiny float, combined with relentless attention on the company, has produced wild swings in the first month. |
The rest is sentiment. The market is recalibrating Musk's grand vision, part of a broader cooling in tech stocks. Even the bonds SpaceX sold after the IPO have softened. |
The stock is a live gauge of how investors value Musk's promises — and it's setting the table for Anthropic and OpenAI, both of which have filed confidentially. Their reception will be read partly through SpaceX's tape. |
Starship is the flywheel. |
A partially reusable Falcon 9 puts a kilogram into orbit for about $1,500. Starship is designed to do it at a tenth of that cost while carrying six times the payload. Cheaper launch unlocks everything else — Starlink expansion, direct-to-cell, and the orbital AI data centers Musk keeps pointing to. |
Wall Street stays constructive. RBC's Ken Herbert rates it Buy with a $225 target and called a walk through the Starbase plant "mind-blowing." The average analyst target sits near $242 — well above the recent share price. |
A clean Starship test would be a strong proof point for a stock the market has knocked down hard. That's the setup I like: heavy skepticism, a real catalyst, and a price back at the IPO line. |
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Ian Wyatt
Editor, IPO Watch |
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